Stock Trading

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sweetandsour
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 02 Sep 2022, 06:07 The employment news is favorable. Unemployment is a smidge higher than expected. Wage inflation is a smidge lower than expected.

Not enough to change reality at all, but also nothing to tempt bears into testing support at 3900.

Computer traders pushed SPY up to 400 in pre-market. Looks like SPY will open somewhere 399.

You've had a couple of really great trades. Catching SPY at 390 and selling NVDA at 191 (currently 140.5). Golly!
Bouncing 3900 was key to the bulls. Looking at SPX chart, starting mid-May, there are ~12 times that roughly 3900 was either a high, or an opening or a close. Is ~4060 a new resistance?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 02 Sep 2022, 06:39 Bouncing 3900 was key to the bulls. Looking at SPX chart, starting mid-May, there are ~12 times that roughly 3900 was either a high, or an opening or a close. Is ~4060 a new resistance?
Looking back through this thread: Page 5, on May 21 -- I pointed out that 3900 was a region of strong support. The first time I ever used the word "mattress" to describe support!

Today, SPX jumped up to nearest resistance at 4000, established in late May and again on July 21/22. If it can elbow over that, then there is a strong support/resistance line at 4075.

It's too early to get excited. Today could be a dead cat bounce, and another test of 3900 is likely before we zoom past 4075.
=======================
Just for fun, let's keep an eye on XLE (SPDR Energy) and XLK (SPDR Tech) to mind which sector is leading the market index on any given day or long trend.
Last edited by Del on 02 Sep 2022, 13:07, edited 3 times in total.
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Post by Del »

I caught the bottom of RUT this morning and sold another leg on the low side of my condor --$145 ka-ching!

Contracts expire on Wednesday, 9/7. Total profit this week will be $760 on $6000 at risk.

I like these 3-day weekends because I make money as time passes, with less volatility due to the market closed for holiday.

Right now, I have a 25% chance of the index encroaching on the high-side leg and triggering an adjustment. That's normal behavior for this trade, and I expect the market will pull back before it advances. No heartburn.

I'm liking my decision to take smaller positions. Stop swinging for the bleachers. Just get on first base. And hoping for copper to recover some in the next two weeks.
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Post by Del »

I went nuts this afternoon on the condors on RUT. Actually, I have two condors, a narrow one and a wide one. My thinking is that the market index has revealed it's comfort zone for the next few days. And there is no trading on Monday.

RUT will struggle to get above 1840.
RUT has a firm mattress at 1800.

So I have $3000 on a bet that it will stay between 1780 and 1860.
And $3000 on a bet that it will stay between 1745 and 1880.

Total premium received: $1376. That's 23% return on $6000 in one week -- if I'm right.

So on Wednesday.... ask me if I am a market guru genius :ugeek: .... or a sad and nervous wreck :obscene-hanged:
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 02 Sep 2022, 12:22 I went nuts this afternoon on the condors on RUT. Actually, I have two condors, a narrow one and a wide one. My thinking is that the market index has revealed it's comfort zone for the next few days. And there is no trading on Monday.

RUT will struggle to get above 1840.
RUT has a firm mattress at 1800.

So I have $3000 on a bet that it will stay between 1780 and 1860.
And $3000 on a bet that it will stay between 1745 and 1880.

Total premium received: $1376. That's 23% return on $6000 in one week -- if I'm right.

So on Wednesday.... ask me if I am a market guru genius :ugeek: .... or a sad and nervous wreck :obscene-hanged:
Well, it's Wednesday.

SPX tested bottom again this morning, and bounced back. I was afraid it was headed for the 3800 some folks are talking about.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 07 Sep 2022, 15:58
Del wrote: 02 Sep 2022, 12:22 I went nuts this afternoon on the condors on RUT. Actually, I have two condors, a narrow one and a wide one. My thinking is that the market index has revealed it's comfort zone for the next few days. And there is no trading on Monday.

RUT will struggle to get above 1840.
RUT has a firm mattress at 1800.

So I have $3000 on a bet that it will stay between 1780 and 1860.
And $3000 on a bet that it will stay between 1745 and 1880.

Total premium received: $1376. That's 23% return on $6000 in one week -- if I'm right.

So on Wednesday.... ask me if I am a market guru genius :ugeek: .... or a sad and nervous wreck :obscene-hanged:
Well, it's Wednesday.

SPX tested bottom again this morning, and bounced back. I was afraid it was headed for the 3800 some folks are talking about.
Well... The Russell 2000 closed at 1832. If I had just left everything alone, I would be $1376 richer.

But I just had to fiddle with it. I didn't anticipate a bunch of bulls charging in today, so I rolled the top legs down to 1825. It closed in the money at 1832. I ended up losing exactly $300 for the week. I was holding over $1800 in my hand this morning, and ended up losing all of that and paying $300.

I need to learn discipline. When I've got a good hand, just let it ride. Don't swing for the bleachers.

New rules: $3000 each Wednesday or Thursday. Add $3000 on Friday or Monday, if market conditions warrant. One adjustment, if necessary. Be very content with anything over $500 per week at this position size.

I have demonstrated my skill at reading support and resistance. I must learn to respect the volatility of this market.
=================================
Now the market wants to rally again. They think the Fed is going to ease up on rate increases after this next meeting. Mr. Market is assuming that Russia and Ukraine will settle down, China won't invade Taiwan, China won't suffer a real estate collapse, Europe's energy crisis and inflation won't bother us, Biden won't send his jackboots to raid various Republican leaders or arrest Donald Trump, and Republicans will win enough of Congress to get some fuel to America and the world.

We aren't done with irrational exuberance and shocks of fear. Exuberance took my fistful of dollars today. That, and my own greed.
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Post by sweetandsour »

SPY is back to the 390 mark, testing it again. Will it break through?

Look at the NVDA chart. It's back to the 130 mark again, RSI is 31. I've bought and sold NVDA at least 4 times, maybe 5. I'm tempted to buy it again at 131.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 13 Sep 2022, 18:19 SPY is back to the 390 mark, testing it again. Will it break through?

Look at the NVDA chart. It's back to the 130 mark again, RSI is 31. I've bought and sold NVDA at least 4 times, maybe 5. I'm tempted to buy it again at 131.
I don't find the tech sector all that sexy. If you want to trade NVDA, this looks like the time to buy. Don't plan on holding it for long.

I think the support of SPX at 3900 will hold. This is where the market should be. The surge of exuberance since Sept 6 was irrational. I am not predicting another surge of recovery.... but I didn't predict last week, either.

Mr. Market is oblivious to the fact that the Fed is dead serious about raising rates and getting ready for the next surge of inflation. Mr. Market seems to have no clue that Biden will have to shut off the spigot at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in November, and that's when our economy is going to start suffering. This has just been the pre-game show.

If China and Putin and Biden remain stable, I think 3900 can hold until November.

I was reading the media analysts this week, and ALL of them were claiming that this bull market trend was going to keep going strong. Inflation is gone! The Fed will relax their rate increases! BUY NOW!

I was beginning to wonder if they knew something that I don't about new energy supplies, or dovish whispers from the Fed, or whether Biden is planning to reverse his sanctions on American fossil fuels. Now I think they are just competing for clicks.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 Sep 2022, 20:51
sweetandsour wrote: 13 Sep 2022, 18:19 SPY is back to the 390 mark, testing it again. Will it break through?

Look at the NVDA chart. It's back to the 130 mark again, RSI is 31. I've bought and sold NVDA at least 4 times, maybe 5. I'm tempted to buy it again at 131.
I don't find the tech sector all that sexy. If you want to trade NVDA, this looks like the time to buy. Don't plan on holding it for long.

I think the support of SPX at 3900 will hold. This is where the market should be. The surge of exuberance since Sept 6 was irrational. I am not predicting another surge of recovery.... but I didn't predict last week, either.

Mr. Market is oblivious to the fact that the Fed is dead serious about raising rates and getting ready for the next surge of inflation. Mr. Market seems to have no clue that Biden will have to shut off the spigot at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in November, and that's when our economy is going to start suffering. This has just been the pre-game show.

If China and Putin and Biden remain stable, I think 3900 can hold until November.

I was reading the media analysts this week, and ALL of them were claiming that this bull market trend was going to keep going strong. Inflation is gone! The Fed will relax their rate increases! BUY NOW!

I was beginning to wonder if they knew something that I don't about new energy supplies, or dovish whispers from the Fed, or whether Biden is planning to reverse his sanctions on American fossil fuels. Now I think they are just competing for clicks.
I never plan to hold anything for long, that's why it bugs me so much when I do, (long = more than a few days). What I've found with the tech sector is that it typically bounces back and forth by 10 points or more, and does it often. NVDA was 134 on 9/6, and 144 on 9/9. Now it's back at 131. Of course, I got my wrist slapped once by NVDA, but still, it's tempting me.

I bought SPY at 390 earlier this month, and sold it at ~405+. I'm antsy about buying it again at the moment.

RE the SPR, the one here locally is still shipping, with no new oil being received. Inflation must really be gauged by fuel cost much more heavily than I thought, or at least that's what Biden is banking on. And speaking of liberal media commentary, did you read Krugman's piece yesterday? "Misery Takes a Holiday".
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 14 Sep 2022, 03:53 RE the SPR, the one here locally is still shipping, with no new oil being received. Inflation must really be gauged by fuel cost much more heavily than I thought, or at least that's what Biden is banking on. And speaking of liberal media commentary, did you read Krugman's piece yesterday? "Misery Takes a Holiday".
This inflationary cycle is surprisingly simple to diagnose. First, Biden and Powell at the Fed made a conscious decision to push unearned money at people during their prolonged covid recession, as if the first batch of Trump Bucks wasn't enough. Total result was an increase of the M2 Money supply by a whopping 33%. Meanwhile, "supply chain" disruptions caused occasional shortages of goods. That's $133 chasing fewer goods than $100 used to balance.

It would have been okay if everyone got back to work and the economy grew to fit the money supply. Fed already planned to tighten some of that money back (by selling much of their hyper-massive bond portfolio) anyhow.

But Biden also put sanctions on American energy. That's a limiting resource that puts the brakes on everything that is produced and increases the cost of everything that is consumed. People feel it immediately, as American rely on our cars.

Biden, seeing himself tank in the polls, refused to relax his green energy mistakes and open energy production. Instead, he decided to rob our piggy bank at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This has delayed Biden's Big Recession until after the midterm elections.

You know its a looming catastrophe when a family isn't earning new income and is rapidly spending down its savings. That's what our nation is doing.

Remember when Biden wanted to push more fake cash at people in the form of monthly gas-cash cards to help with fuel costs? Dispensing 1 million barrels per day from the SPR is the same unfunded government spending, just less obvious and dramatic. The next president will have to spend that money to replenish our reserve, and he'll get blamed for the huge deficits.
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Mr. Market doesn't see the looming fuel crisis, inflation and recession. My conservative podcast news are just vaguely aware of it. I sometimes feel like I am the only investor in the country who sees what is happening soon, and I'm wondering if I'm just crazy. Am I missing something that everyone else can see?
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I am familiar with Paul Krugman. He's an ass. Keynesian theorist who believes that more government spending is always good for everyone.

The article you mention is behind a paywall at New York Times, unless you have a backdoor link for me. What does he have to say?
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