I'll see what I can do with the paywall, but basically he (PK) uses Reagan's old "Misery Index" to measure today's inflation.Del wrote: ↑14 Sep 2022, 06:48This inflationary cycle is surprisingly simple to diagnose. First, Biden and Powell at the Fed made a conscious decision to push unearned money at people during their prolonged covid recession, as if the first batch of Trump Bucks wasn't enough. Total result was an increase of the M2 Money supply by a whopping 33%. Meanwhile, "supply chain" disruptions caused occasional shortages of goods. That's $133 chasing fewer goods than $100 used to balance.sweetandsour wrote: ↑14 Sep 2022, 03:53 RE the SPR, the one here locally is still shipping, with no new oil being received. Inflation must really be gauged by fuel cost much more heavily than I thought, or at least that's what Biden is banking on. And speaking of liberal media commentary, did you read Krugman's piece yesterday? "Misery Takes a Holiday".
It would have been okay if everyone got back to work and the economy grew to fit the money supply. Fed already planned to tighten some of that money back (by selling much of their hyper-massive bond portfolio) anyhow.
But Biden also put sanctions on American energy. That's a limiting resource that puts the brakes on everything that is produced and increases the cost of everything that is consumed. People feel it immediately, as American rely on our cars.
Biden, seeing himself tank in the polls, refused to relax his green energy mistakes and open energy production. Instead, he decided to rob our piggy bank at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This has delayed Biden's Big Recession until after the midterm elections.
You know its a looming catastrophe when a family isn't earning new income and is rapidly spending down its savings. That's what our nation is doing.
Remember when Biden wanted to push more fake cash at people in the form of monthly gas-cash cards to help with fuel costs? Dispensing 1 million barrels per day from the SPR is the same unfunded government spending, just less obvious and dramatic. The next president will have to spend that money to replenish our reserve, and he'll get blamed for the huge deficits.
Mr. Market doesn't see the looming fuel crisis, inflation and recession. My conservative podcast news are just vaguely aware of it. I sometimes feel like I am the only investor in the country who sees what is happening soon, and I'm wondering if I'm just crazy. Am I missing something that everyone else can see?
I am familiar with Paul Krugman. He's an ass. Keynesian theorist who believes that more government spending is always good for everyone.
The article you mention is behind a paywall at New York Times, unless you have a backdoor link for me. What does he have to say?
Meanwhile, per API this morning,
"Supply-demand imbalances, insufficient alternative energy sources and underinvestment in new drilling could drive oil prices as high as $150 per barrel, said Christyan Malek, global head of energy strategy at JPMorgan Chase in an interview. Separately, Chevron Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth warned of "significantly higher" US natural gas prices this winter and argued against an export ban, noting that such an action "runs the risk of taking supplies that are needed in other parts of the world and reducing those which can drive world prices up, which then can affect the price of imports into this country.""