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Del
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 17 Sep 2022, 09:13 I gambled on the 3900 SPX floor Thursday afternoon and bought SPY at 390, counting on a bounce. It's at 385.5 now, but I'm still watching for a bounce, then I'll sell it and buy it back when it drops to 370, or maybe even 360.

I also bought 20 more shares of XLE at 80, and it promptly dipped down to 78.5. If crude goes back above 100, or if Biden keeps his word and starts buying to refill the SPR, then I expect XLE to creep back up, perhaps to the 90s. Lots going on right now though, so we'll see.
The whole market hit low by 11:30 on Friday, then spent the rest of the afternoon trying to climb back onto the mattress at 3900. We'll see what next week brings.

Fed announces new rates on Wednesday, and all eyes are on their guidance for future rate hikes. Everyone expects tightening to continue, so that is getting priced in. If the Fed gives any hints that rate increases will not be as strict as expected, the market could react with excitement.
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Del
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Post by Del »

Next scheduled Kicking-Ass market events:

Earnings season begins in early October.

September inflation announcement Thurs Oct 13.

3rd Quarter GDP announcement Thurs Oct 27.
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Post by Del »

Monday, noonish....

Here is the guidance I am pondering:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/18/stock-m ... -news.html
“It’s a very quiet session thus far,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a note to clients. “Stocks have climbed off their lows from earlier in the morning, but sentiment is still very gloomy. The consensus playbook for the week seems to be anticipating a brief rally around the FOMC, which most people plan to use as an opportunity to book profits in preparation for further downside (a return to the June lows is thought by many to be inevitable).”
My September calls on XLE and copper expired Friday. I sold Oct 21 calls, rather closer to current trading price than normal as I expect plenty of pessimism after Wednesday.

My strategy on covered calls is simple: If the position is getting close to being called out and I want to keep the asset, I go ahead and buy a new position. Let the old one get called out, and continue to own through the upside. But that's a problem for rising markets..... we still need Putin to end his war in Ukraine and Biden to end his war on energy. China's economy and possible military action are still a risk to world markets.

/UPDATE:

SPX spent all afternoon trying to chin-up to 3900. Index futures climbed over the top after market closed by 25 points or so.

Maybe it's irrational exuberance again.... or maybe the market has priced in all the bad news on Fed rates already, and still clinging to firm support.
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Post by sweetandsour »

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-09-19/

Oil futures survey. Lots of differing opinions.

In other news, FED news conference today. SPX futures are showing positive so far this morning. I'm still sitting on XLE and SPY, and not much free ammo, but I'll be watching today to see what happens.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 06:10 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 022-09-19/

Oil futures survey. Lots of differing opinions.

In other news, FED news conference today. SPX futures are showing positive so far this morning. I'm still sitting on XLE and SPY, and not much free ammo, but I'll be watching today to see what happens.
My crystal ball is getting murky. If the world is in a recession due to interest rates and central banks, then somewhat lower oil prices aren't going to matter much. The oil is lower because of the recession, is all. "Oil has cooled on concerns of an economic slowdown." - per your link.

It may be a couple of years before the world economy if free from Biden. And lots of things could happen before then. Peace in Ukraine, war with China, collapse of China's real estate balloon. Trump or Newsom might become our next president. Heck, Biden could win re-election... voters are that dumb.

Short term: My condors expire today. I am set well for either a surge of exuberance or a spike of panic. The market has to move 4% for me to find any trouble. I am pleased with my cautious fortune.

Earnings this week of $865. It will take a few more good weeks to recover what I lost over the last two.
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Hmphf.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 15:30Hmphf.
+1

Tomorrow morning I'm playing golf.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 18:36
Del wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 15:30Hmphf.
+1

Tomorrow morning I'm playing golf.
I'm glad that I sold covered calls earlier this week, as I expected stocks to fall today. My copper held on nicely today, dropping just below support.

In mid-morning, I will assess the market situation and probably set up a condor for the next week.

On Friday, my wife and I are getting away to visit the shrine where Mary appeared in Campion, WI (Mary's only "approved" appearance in the United States). Also the site of the miracle during the Great Peshtigo Fire, America's deadliest wildfire.

And then we will enjoy a weekend in scenic Door County on Lake Michigan.

It's our 35th wedding anniversary.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 19:09
sweetandsour wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 18:36
Del wrote: 21 Sep 2022, 15:30Hmphf.
+1

Tomorrow morning I'm playing golf.
I'm glad that I sold covered calls earlier this week, as I expected stocks to fall today. My copper held on nicely today, dropping just below support.

In mid-morning, I will assess the market situation and probably set up a condor for the next week.

On Friday, my wife and I are getting away to visit the shrine where Mary appeared in Campion, WI (Mary's only "approved" appearance in the United States). Also the site of the miracle during the Great Peshtigo Fire, America's deadliest wildfire.

And then we will enjoy a weekend in scenic Door County on Lake Michigan.

It's our 35th wedding anniversary.
Congrats to you and your wife!! Watch for a huge bounce in the market today, since I will be on the golf course and unable to take advantage of it.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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