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Del
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 06 May 2022, 08:21
Del wrote: 06 May 2022, 06:23 It's Friday, May 6, 8:20 AM Central Time.

Hold on to your butts:

A whole bunch of US govt employment data is going to reveal just as the market opens at 8:30.

change in average wages paid
change in number of people working
change in total unemployment rate
======================================
This is a great website for keeping track of economic news and data releases.
https://www.forexfactory.com
Looks like things stayed about the same, but I don't like to buy on Fridays anyway.
Likewise. I normally sell a condor on Tuesday or Wednesday, to expire the following Wednesday.

I trade the Russell 2000 index. It's less volatile than the S&P 500.

I put a position on Tuesday this week, because I expected a lot of noise related to the Fed meeting on Wednesday. I expected the index would settle down about the same level.

There was a lot of fear on Tuesday, which means option premiums were high. So I could set the margins wide on my condors, and still make some decent money.

I was pretty happy when Thursday's close was about level with Tuesday!

If China doesn't invade Taiwan this weekend, I should do very well. We shall see.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 05 May 2022, 19:19
Del wrote: 05 May 2022, 09:38
sweetandsour wrote: 02 May 2022, 19:37

Have you been buying?
I have decided that I am bearish on 2022, so I won't be buying anything on short-term trades. But I am not confident enough to short the market, either.

I continue to make stock purchases in our retirement savings. My long-term outlook is still strong, after we get passed this recession and get Biden out. (His feet on the brakes of our energy production is holding us back.) I have time to enjoy purchasing cheap stocks before I need to draw from those funds. For me, this is a good time for a steep market correction.
Now's the time to dollar cost average. But I'm still deciding which fund.
Did you choose a stock or fund?
What type of funds are you looking at?
And what is your time frame for holding or target for selling?

Dollar/cost averaging is a strategy for long-term, buy and hold investments.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 07 May 2022, 07:13
sweetandsour wrote: 05 May 2022, 19:19
Del wrote: 05 May 2022, 09:38

I have decided that I am bearish on 2022, so I won't be buying anything on short-term trades. But I am not confident enough to short the market, either.

I continue to make stock purchases in our retirement savings. My long-term outlook is still strong, after we get passed this recession and get Biden out. (His feet on the brakes of our energy production is holding us back.) I have time to enjoy purchasing cheap stocks before I need to draw from those funds. For me, this is a good time for a steep market correction.
Now's the time to dollar cost average. But I'm still deciding which fund.
Did you choose a stock or fund?
What type of funds are you looking at?
And what is your time frame for holding or target for selling?

Dollar/cost averaging is a strategy for long-term, buy and hold investments.
It'll be one of the index funds with lowest fees, on the side, and see how it works out over the next 2-5 years. I'm still undecided.

Meanwhile, in conversation with a good friend on Friday, he predicts that Ukraine and Russia will settle, with Russia taking the eastern portion they wanted anyway. The US and others will rebuild Ukraine. Metals such as Copper will be in big demand, and equipment stocks such as Cat will climb.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 08 May 2022, 05:33
Del wrote: 07 May 2022, 07:13
sweetandsour wrote: 05 May 2022, 19:19
Now's the time to dollar cost average. But I'm still deciding which fund.
Did you choose a stock or fund?
What type of funds are you looking at?
And what is your time frame for holding or target for selling?

Dollar/cost averaging is a strategy for long-term, buy and hold investments.
It'll be one of the index funds with lowest fees, on the side, and see how it works out over the next 2-5 years. I'm still undecided.

Meanwhile, in conversation with a good friend on Friday, he predicts that Ukraine and Russia will settle, with Russia taking the eastern portion they wanted anyway. The US and others will rebuild Ukraine. Metals such as Copper will be in big demand, and equipment stocks such as Cat will climb.
VOO and VTI (Vanguard Total Market Index) are great for low fees.

Hmmm.... copper ETF's are trading low right now! I should buy some paper copper, hold onto it, and sell calls. Looks like it could make 20% or so. Just right for a $5000 position. CPER has plenty of open interest on the options, so they should trade easily.
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Post by sweetandsour »

It's getting scary. This time is different than the one a couple years ago, the rebound could take some time.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 10 May 2022, 01:45 It's getting scary. This time is different than the one a couple years ago, the rebound could take some time.
As I said earlier, I expect that 2022 will close lower than it opened. It could be a couple of years before S&P breaks it's record high close on Jan 3, 2022.

I closed the put option spread and put a hedge on my RUT condor that will close on Wednesday. It's already close to the edge.
(RUT = Russell 2000 index. I put a short position on RUT futures, so the hedge makes money if the index drops.)

So basically, I lost $1835 this week on my condors. But my hedge is currently at $1300 profit, and growing as the index keeps dropping. I might make some profit yet this week.
(Edit: Market is dropping as I wrote this. Hedge is near $2000, so I'm break-even at this moment.)

The good news is that my copper position is up $50!
----------------------------------
Biden is going to address the nation about inflation today. He plans to condemn Republicans for wanting to raise taxes and shut down Social Security and Medicare. He will urge Congress to pass his Build Back Better Plan, which will spend another $trillions$ on "infrastructure" (although only 10% of the proposed spending actually goes toward roads, bridges, and stuff like electric grid). Anyhow, his answer to inflation is more deficit spending -- and fake-news condemnation of Republicans.

New inflation data comes out tomorrow morning. Between Biden's encouragement tonight and inflation data news tomorrow, I'm sure the markets will respond accordingly.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 10 May 2022, 01:45 Ping!
Hi Tim. Last week was quite a wild ride!

The Russell 2000 index blew out my condor, and I was facing a horrible loss. Fortunately, I saw it coming in time. Closed the position and put on a hedge. The hedge ended up doing very well.

In last week's market drop, I ended up making twice the profit that I like to see in a normal week! It's a beautiful thing, when it happens like this. Like winning the Super Bowl on a long final drive and a Hail Mary pass.

Because first, I have to get into trouble as the market spoils my trade. Then, I have to make the right adjustments early enough to avoid worse trouble. And then, the market has to cooperate with my adjusted trade to recover some of what I lost.

Just don't let hobby traders tell you this happens frequently.

I'm still digging out for the money I lost, learning how to fix troubled trades.

The good news is that I am up 11.3% this year in my little cash-flow trading fund, while SP500 is down 20% over the same period. I hope in a few years to build this little fund into something large enough that I can harvest profits and enjoy them for fun stuff.
====================================================
Basically, a condor is a bet that the market is going to trade level within a specific range over the short term. A guy needs access to the options market.
And when the market moves sharply like this, I need to fold on the losing hand and switch to a strategy that plays the rapid drop. A guy needs access to the futures market.

I spent a year just trading monopoly money before TD Ameritrade granted me access at "Level Three." There is a "Level Four" that permits some riskier trades, but I'm not ready to ask for this yet. They'll want to see a big pot of gold so they know I can cover my positions.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 May 2022, 06:05
sweetandsour wrote: 10 May 2022, 01:45 Ping!
Hi Tim. Last week was quite a wild ride!

The Russell 2000 index blew out my condor, and I was facing a horrible loss. Fortunately, I saw it coming in time. Closed the position and put on a hedge. The hedge ended up doing very well.

In last week's market drop, I ended up making twice the profit that I like to see in a normal week! It's a beautiful thing, when it happens like this. Like winning the Super Bowl on a long final drive and a Hail Mary pass.

Because first, I have to get into trouble as the market spoils my trade. Then, I have to make the right adjustments early enough to avoid worse trouble. And then, the market has to cooperate with my adjusted trade to recover some of what I lost.

Just don't let hobby traders tell you this happens frequently.

I'm still digging out for the money I lost, learning how to fix troubled trades.

The good news is that I am up 11.3% this year in my little cash-flow trading fund, while SP500 is down 20% over the same period. I hope in a few years to build this little fund into something large enough that I can harvest profits and enjoy them for fun stuff.
====================================================
Basically, a condor is a bet that the market is going to trade level within a specific range over the short term. A guy needs access to the options market.
And when the market moves sharply like this, I need to fold on the losing hand and switch to a strategy that plays the rapid drop. A guy needs access to the futures market.

I spent a year just trading monopoly money before TD Ameritrade granted me access at "Level Three." There is a "Level Four" that permits some riskier trades, but I'm not ready to ask for this yet. They'll want to see a big pot of gold so they know I can cover my positions.
I'm not ready or really set up financially for your so-called condors, but it's really interesting. I am getting close to applying for doing covered calls however through Fidelity, which is where my play account is. I got started trading NVDA, with it's ups and downs, but made the mistake of buying on a Friday dip, and it's dropped since then. But it's still bouncing, was down around 150 yesterday, and back up in the 170's this morning. In the past few weeks it's ranged from 150 to 200, but right now I'm about break even, from being ~20% ahead before this latest crash.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 13 May 2022, 08:05
I'm not ready or really set up financially for your so-called condors, but it's really interesting. I am getting close to applying for doing covered calls however through Fidelity, which is where my play account is. I got started trading NVDA, with it's ups and downs, but made the mistake of buying on a Friday dip, and it's dropped since then. But it's still bouncing, was down around 150 yesterday, and back up in the 170's this morning. In the past few weeks it's ranged from 150 to 200, but right now I'm about break even, from being ~20% ahead before this latest crash.

I checked the charts on NVDA. It looks like it is tracking with the rest of the SP500, for now.

Recent advice is all over the map. Some say BUY, others SELL, and others HOLD.

What is your time frame? How long do you plan to hold it? And what target price do you expect it to reach in that time frame?
----------------------------------------

I don't want to scare you, but I would not buy NVDA. They are down 50% in six months....

Nvidia programs and sells microchips. They do not manufacture chips. They outsource their manufacturing to factories in China and Taiwan.
- China closed whole factories in recent months, due to covid outbreaks and their Zero Tolerance policy. This caused the ugly drop in stock price.
- If China threatens military action toward Taiwan (precipitated by Biden's demonstrated weakness), Nvidia's supply is entirely at risk.

Maybe the analysts recommending BUY trades know something about NVDA's alternative suppliers. But I don't.

Short term, NVDA will announce earnings on May 25. There could be a big move then -- if they miss their earnings estimate, or if they beat the estimate by a significant amount.

Intel beat their earnings on April 28, and still saw a big sell-off the next day -- which recovered quickly, but even now they are trading lower along with the rest of the market.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 May 2022, 11:33
sweetandsour wrote: 13 May 2022, 08:05
I'm not ready or really set up financially for your so-called condors, but it's really interesting. I am getting close to applying for doing covered calls however through Fidelity, which is where my play account is. I got started trading NVDA, with it's ups and downs, but made the mistake of buying on a Friday dip, and it's dropped since then. But it's still bouncing, was down around 150 yesterday, and back up in the 170's this morning. In the past few weeks it's ranged from 150 to 200, but right now I'm about break even, from being ~20% ahead before this latest crash.

I checked the charts on NVDA. It looks like it is tracking with the rest of the SP500, for now.

Recent advice is all over the map. Some say BUY, others SELL, and others HOLD.

What is your time frame? How long do you plan to hold it? And what target price do you expect it to reach in that time frame?
----------------------------------------

I don't want to scare you, but I would not buy NVDA. They are down 50% in six months....

Nvidia programs and sells microchips. They do not manufacture chips. They outsource their manufacturing to factories in China and Taiwan.
- China closed whole factories in recent months, due to covid outbreaks and their Zero Tolerance policy. This caused the ugly drop in stock price.
- If China threatens military action toward Taiwan (precipitated by Biden's demonstrated weakness), Nvidia's supply is entirely at risk.

Maybe the analysts recommending BUY trades know something about NVDA's alternative suppliers. But I don't.

Short term, NVDA will announce earnings on May 25. There could be a big move then -- if they miss their earnings estimate, or if they beat the estimate by a significant amount.

Intel beat their earnings on April 28, and still saw a big sell-off the next day -- which recovered quickly, but even now they are trading lower along with the rest of the market.
You and I must be looking at different charts, although lately NVDA has somewhat tracked with the S&P. Earlier this year the analysts projected a 30% growth by the end of the year, although the longest I held on to it was 3 days, up until now. But if I would have bought at 155 yesterday, I would have sold at 178 today. In March-April time frame I and some buddies bought at 210 and sold at 280, except one of the guys I was telling you about earlier, he sold half at 280 and sold a call on the other half. I don't know where he stands on that now. Anyway it dropped back down to 209 and several of us bought, (I only bought 20 shares, so it's not a big investment). It's flirted with 200 a couple times and I said I'd sell at 200 and buy something else on sale, but now I'm thinking just hold. Most of the analysts are saying buy, some say hold, and only 1 that I read said sell, but I can't remember why. Their earnings have increased each year, and are still projected to increase further, and their prospects for future AI and other uses look promising. Their system was hacked, and they in turn hacked the hackers. Now they recently were fined. Others are throwing darts for various reasons. And still, today the price rose by 15 points.
If you're day trading and watching for volatility, then Intel isn't interesting, but it's a very good stock. It has ranged from ~45 to ~50 for the past 6 months.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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