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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 03 Jan 2023, 18:17
Del wrote: 03 Jan 2023, 13:03 First trading day of the New Year, and Mr. Market decided to punish me for holding XLE.

I'm glad that's out of the way.....
Hopefully, but we'll see. All of the oil stocks dropped, including Chevron, Exxon, and the ConocoPhillips that I bought at 116, (now at 113). Just hang on, and dollar cost average the good companies, as things get worse.
Short-term, our energy stocks are tied to global oil prices, which dropped by $5 to $6/barrel (-6%) on Tuesday.

The more I learn about energy providers, the more I am convinced that this sector will be a long-term winner -- on either side. If Biden wins and American energy remains sanctioned, or if his policies can be reversed and American energy gets back into production. It may take three years to develop, but we'll get there. Either way means more inflation to come, as I see it.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 31 Dec 2022, 22:16 ping
How has your trading been?

I executed my plan to borrow home equity to add to my trading account. I'm posting some bigger numbers now. January has been especially successful. I'm almost embarrassed to report an average of $1625 per week from my condors. It won't be that high by the end of the year, as I will inevitably face some big expense trades. I have a "reasonably aggressive" goal to average $825 per week over the whole year, so this is a great start.

My account is up 13% YTD.

The next 10 days or so will be a big deal for the market and XLE.

Thursday, Jan 26: Q4 GDP, Q4 overall inflation, and latest unemployment data drop all at once before market opens
Friday, Jan 27: Chevron earnings announce before market opens
Tuesday Jan 31: Exxon earnings announce before market opens
Wed, Feb 1: Fed Reserve announces new rates and outlook at press conference starting 1:00 pm
Thurs, Feb 2: Groundhog Day
Fri, Feb 3: January consumer price inflation announced

Chevron and Exxon together comprise just over 40% of XLE holdings, so that's us.

I hold 300 shares of XLE, plus long-term call options equivalent to 200 more shares. My delta is 524 -- a $1 increase/decrease in XLE is $524 to my account. I'm hoping that XLE will punch into the mid-90's with this earnings season and edge up toward $100 over the first quarter. We'll see.
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Post by Del »

XLE punched up suddenly a full $1/share (from 90 to 91, so about 1%) shortly after market close today. I figured out why.

Chevron announces $75 billion stock buyback, dividend boost
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Post by Del »

XLE on 1/26: WOWZA!

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow morning, after Chevron discloses Q4 earnings and guidance.

Exxon earnings on 1/31, morning.
Fed meeting on 2/1, afternoon.

Buckle up for a wild week.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 10:35 XLE on 1/26: WOWZA!

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow morning, after Chevron discloses Q4 earnings and guidance.

Exxon earnings on 1/31, morning.
Fed meeting on 2/1, afternoon.

Buckle up for a wild week.
One of my buddies was telling me 2 weeks ago to buy NVDA while it was at ~150, but I've had just too much going on, including a tornado Tuesday afternoon. (We got power back on at ~midnight last night.) But meanwhile NVDA is now at 199. I wish I could have bought some Chevron during the after hours, I've applied to Fidelity to be allowed to do that, since many companies now make their announcements after hours it seems. Not many companies buying back their own stock these days; I may buy some Chevron at the new price anyway.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 17:53 One of my buddies was telling me 2 weeks ago to buy NVDA while it was at ~150, but I've had just too much going on, including a tornado Tuesday afternoon. (We got power back on at ~midnight last night.) But meanwhile NVDA is now at 199. I wish I could have bought some Chevron during the after hours, I've applied to Fidelity to be allowed to do that, since many companies now make their announcements after hours it seems. Not many companies buying back their own stock these days; I may buy some Chevron at the new price anyway.
Big companies always announce earnings when the market is closed. Either an hour before market opens or an hour after trading closes. About half of each.

Chevron and Exxon are both scheduled for morning announcements.
========================

Chevron is selling off big today, establishing support within its regular trading range. The trend is still UP, so if you want to grab some just to hold on and be patient, then today is a good opportunity. Dividend rate is about 3.4%. Pretty much same rate as XLE.
========================

XLE also gave back some from yesterday. Establishing a new support range above the old resistance at 91. I continue to be very pleased with my long positions in XLE.
=======================

I will defer to your buddies on NVDA and tech stocks. I traded some NVDA with you back in May -- I even made $1400. But I also learned that this style doesn't suit me well. It works, but not for me.
========================

It looks like SPY is breaking out of a classic cup-&-handle. Looks like it's on its way to test 410 ahead of the Fed rate announcement. Likely to form another handle and keep going up as earnings season progresses.
========================

RUT (Russell 2000) is a mid-cap index of the next 2000 companies after the top 500. I do most of my weekly condors on RUT. This index also broke out of a cup-&-handle yesterday. It is currently testing a level of resistance set way back in August.

I expect the market will experience a pull-back on Wednesday with the Fed rate. A lot of the market still has to learn that this Fed board is not going to return to a policy of easy money for a very, very long time.

Then I expect a steady, worried march upward as the market digests new earnings data. We'll see where it settles by late February.

I like this market environment. Excessive exuberance is fun to watch, but the correction is painful (see 2022). Most of our retirement growth is accomplished by "climbing the wall of worry."

And this is a great environment for iron condors. I started Jan 1 with $55k in my trading account. I am already at $65k. It's great to have some profits built up before I hit those inevitable "expense trades."
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Post by Del »

Tuesday morning, Jan 31.

Oil prices (and oil stocks) dropped overnight.... interest rate fears due to US Fed rates tomorrow and comments from other international central banks.

by 8:45, XLE was testing the strong support at 88 and volatility (VIX) was spiking. I sold a March 3 put promise buy at 88 for $275.

Almost immediately, crude oil prices and XLE began to recover. At this time (9:45 am), XLE is pressing near 90.

My March 3, I expect XLE will be trading above the next level of support at 91.

Basically, I just sniped $275 at a market low!

There's a limit to how many such promises I can cover. Basically, I can afford to do this once a week, when conditions are right. So that's an extra $1000 to $1200 per month.

Meanwhile, my iron condors were absolutely slaying January. I am five weeks into my trading year, and averaged $1640 per week just on the condors. Eventually I will hit a rough patch, but this is a very strong start.

Overall account is up $9000 in January. About double what I expected for an average month.
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Post by Del »

Mr. Market is giddy with news from the Federal Reserve!

I predict a hang-over correction tomorrow.

XLE had a wild day.... down quite a bit in the morning. No one seemed to know why, so analysts blamed the usual suspects: Oil prices, recession fears, geopolitical unrest, Biden's latest comments. But the rest of the market was not selling off, so I don't know. XLE dropped all the way down to the bottom of my channel -- perfect technical behavior. Then it got caught up with the rest of the market exuberance and clawed up over recent support at 88.50.

Fun day!
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Post by Del »

Today is the stuff of nightmares for a trader like me.

RUT and SPX are exuberant with Fed rate news and dovish talk on inflation. Doing cocaine and all that. Busting heedlessly through the tops of my condors, forcing me to take evasive action. Expensive.

Meanwhile, XLE is selling off AGAINST THE TREND. Shell Oil just reported record profits (like Exxon and Chevron). Biden is accusing them of profiting from the worldwide shortage that HE caused. (Ignoring that Biden also profited, selling our strategic reserve at record prices which Trump had accumulated at record lows. Biden will claim that his brilliant policies reduced his deficits. Gawd, I detest corrupt politics.)

Facing political headwinds and fears of global recession, traders are taking their energy profits off the table.

I gave up half of my proud January earnings.

XLE is testing the bottom of the channel. I expect it to recover.

We'll see what happens to the indexes and the tech sector when they sober up. This could be good for everyone's 401k.
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Post by sweetandsour »

CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is maxed out on "Extreme Greed". "The market is broken", says some of the analysts now. I've been mostly watching so far this year, with just a few trades for small profits. My trading money is still on the side, except for a small stock fund that is up 8.74% for the year. I'm waiting for some deals, while still practicing options trading on paper on the side.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
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