Stock Trading

[Del]

Help me achieve my current goal. I want to see $75,000 in my trading account by Memorial Day.

To achieve $75k by Memorial Day, I need XLE to break out of its current slide and trade somewhere near 79 by the end of next week.

So please use your influence.

I'll say a prayer that God will bless your efforts.

Well, it's Wednesday. My big condor on RUT (which expires today) is rolling right down the middle. I will secure $3124 in premium for the week.

Yesterday was a white-knuckle nail-biter. RUT was outside of my range for a couple of hours. It would have cost me a few thousand dollars to protect it against further losses -- but I reckoned that a correction would draw the market down into range before expiration today -- especially as you are exercising your influence to help me. I reckoned correctly. Thank you!

I put on another position in RUT for next week. This is more reasonable... $1133 in premium. If the market moves much with tomorrow's news, I may be able to safely add more. Meanwhile, I have strong resistance above me and strong support below me, with my borders well outside of those indicators. I feel pretty good about next week, in spite of the looming debt crisis.

As a result.... I have $78,000 (more or less) in account cash value. 42% YTD. This is a huge milestone.... above $75k, I can step up my position size. This means compounding returns and accelerated growth.

Next major milestone is $85k. That's when I will recover everything I lost in previous years, and finally be working above break-even.
The next milestone is $95k, when I can increase position size yet again. I will step up a notch every $10K after this.
The Holy Grail is $110K. That will mark 100% return since Jan 1. It will take a lot of care and a lot of luck to achieve this by Dec. 31, but it is possible.
===================================

Other positions:

I have some calls on XLE at 84, expiring this Friday 5/26 and also 6/9. I want to reduce my position in XLE anyhow. But it's fun having too much while it's going up recently.

I sold a put on XLK (tech sector) at 147.5, expires June 2. If the market drops in the final days of the debt crisis, I might scoop some up. Or I get paid a bit ($50) if it doesn't. This is my very first-ever position on XLK. The start of a new adventure.

Oddly, there's about twice as much premium on XLE as there is on XLK, relative to the price of the ETF. I don't understand why this is so.

I have a month-long condor on SPX, expires June 2. I didn't plan on Biden's playing "Debt Crisis Roulette" right up to it's expiration, so we'll see how it fairs. If the bottom doesn't fall out, I'll keep $2824 in premium.

I am looking forward to drawing my first dividend on JEPI. Due June 6. It should pay $85 to $95 each month on 200 shares, which is about the yield I would expect from selling covered calls on a position of equivalent size with a more volatile stock.

[Del]

Oddly, there's about twice as much premium on XLE as there is on XLK, relative to the price of the ETF. I don't understand why this is so.

I figured it out.

XLK options are thinly traded. Open interest on a put option at delta = .15 is only 100 to 200 or so. The bid/ask spread is enormous... Bid price (what I sell for) is about half of the Ask price (what it costs me to buy it back if I change my mind a few minutes later). That's a 50% spread.

XLE options are heavily traded. That same call or put at delta = 0.15 has 1000 to 2000 deals open for filling. The bid-ask spread is much closer. So the midpoint Mark Price (where most trades settle) is much closer to the Ask price. XLE options have about a 20% bid/ask spread, which is comparable to options on RUT.

SPX options are extremely liquid. Open interest can be several thousands, and Bid/ask spread is only about 2.5%.

[Del]

NVDA bet earnings and market expectations for future sales. Price surging.

Demand for AI chips is driving this. Reminds me of the surge in NVDA during the Bitcoin mining craze.

[sweetandsour]

Oddly, there's about twice as much premium on XLE as there is on XLK, relative to the price of the ETF. I don't understand why this is so.

I figured it out.

XLK options are thinly traded. Open interest on a put option at delta = .15 is only 100 to 200 or so. The bid/ask spread is enormous... Bid price (what I sell for) is about half of the Ask price (what it costs me to buy it back if I change my mind a few minutes later). That's a 50% spread.

XLE options are heavily traded. That same call or put at delta = 0.15 has 1000 to 2000 deals open for filling. The bid-ask spread is much closer. So the midpoint Mark Price (where most trades settle) is much closer to the Ask price. XLE options have about a 20% bid/ask spread, which is comparable to options on RUT.

SPX options are extremely liquid. Open interest can be several thousands, and Bid/ask spread is only about 2.5%.

I'd been watching XLK, it's been trending upward all year.

NVDA is crazy. I bought and sold it several times, then got out when the price got out of my trading range. A friend of mine bought it in the low 100s and held it and is still holding it. He won't tell me how many shares he has.
I typically sit it out prior to long holiday weekends, but still, I'm thinking about what to buy prior to the debt crisis so-called resolution.

[Del]

I'd been watching XLK, it's been trending upward all year.

NVDA is crazy. I bought and sold it several times, then got out when the price got out of my trading range. A friend of mine bought it in the low 100s and held it and is still holding it. He won't tell me how many shares he has.
I typically sit it out prior to long holiday weekends, but still, I'm thinking about what to buy prior to the debt crisis so-called resolution.

We could not have predicted the spike this week in NVDA and XLK following the announcement of NVDA earnings. That's a gift for the long buy-&-hold investors.

I expect there's more risk of a panic drop next week over the debt crisis, before any exuberant burst over its resolution. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that the market isn't spooked already. VIX is blissfully unconcerned. Mr. Market seems to view this as a government problem that doesn't affect him.

[sweetandsour]

I'd been watching XLK, it's been trending upward all year.

NVDA is crazy. I bought and sold it several times, then got out when the price got out of my trading range. A friend of mine bought it in the low 100s and held it and is still holding it. He won't tell me how many shares he has.
I typically sit it out prior to long holiday weekends, but still, I'm thinking about what to buy prior to the debt crisis so-called resolution.

We could not have predicted the spike this week in NVDA and XLK following the announcement of NVDA earnings. That's a gift for the long buy-&-hold investors.

I expect there's more risk of a panic drop next week over the debt crisis, before any exuberant burst over its resolution. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised that the market isn't spooked already. VIX is blissfully unconcerned. Mr. Market seems to view this as a government problem that doesn't affect him.

Fidelity analysts say NVDA is/was narrative-driven, with people jumping in with FOMO, driven by emotions. I guess like you mentioned above with your bitcoin comparison. Anyway, good deal for the buy-and-hold folks.

[Del]

I just read that Janet Yellen has moved the crisis date from June 1 to June 6. Biden took off for long Memorial Day Weekend vacation.

[sweetandsour]

I just read that Janet Yellen has moved the crisis date from June 1 to June 6. Biden took off for long Memorial Day Weekend vacation.

I just read that a deal has been struck. Now, what's gonna happen this coming Tues morning? I feel a need to buy SPY in the pre-market.

[Del]

I just read that Janet Yellen has moved the crisis date from June 1 to June 6. Biden took off for long Memorial Day Weekend vacation.

I just read that a deal has been struck. Now, what's gonna happen this coming Tues morning? I feel a need to buy SPY in the pre-market.

Good luck. I hope my XLE does some uppity action.

I have some room for exuberance in my condor on SPX that expires on Friday. But not too much. My upper limit is just 4300.

My condor on RUT expires Wednesday. I have plenty of room there, unless the market goes bonkers.

The market shouldn't be too exuberant, I think. Nothing has changed in the real world.

[sweetandsour]

I just read that Janet Yellen has moved the crisis date from June 1 to June 6. Biden took off for long Memorial Day Weekend vacation.

I just read that a deal has been struck. Now, what's gonna happen this coming Tues morning? I feel a need to buy SPY in the pre-market.

Good luck. I hope my XLE does some uppity action.

I have some room for exuberance in my condor on SPX that expires on Friday. But not too much. My upper limit is just 4300.

My condor on RUT expires Wednesday. I have plenty of room there, unless the market goes bonkers.

The market shouldn't be too exuberant, I think. Nothing has changed in the real world.

Yes, and some were saying that last week's market already reflected an expected debt limit resolution. But who knows what the emotional market will do, even if momentary.
Re options, I got away from my study for a while; it seems like just too much risk for a small account like mine. Especially these iron condors that you like to do. We'll see, though, what happens this summer. Good luck on your positions.