Futures on SPX and RUT opened 5 pm Sunday night, as usual. (Futures have different market schedule than stocks. They are weird around holidays.) Anyhow, opened just slightly above Friday close, and hovering thus for the last four hours. There is no early exuberance around the debt ceiling deal.sweetandsour wrote: ↑28 May 2023, 07:14Yes, and some were saying that last week's market already reflected an expected debt limit resolution. But who knows what the emotional market will do, even if momentary.Del wrote: ↑27 May 2023, 19:00Good luck. I hope my XLE does some uppity action.sweetandsour wrote: ↑27 May 2023, 18:03
I just read that a deal has been struck. Now, what's gonna happen this coming Tues morning? I feel a need to buy SPY in the pre-market.
I have some room for exuberance in my condor on SPX that expires on Friday. But not too much. My upper limit is just 4300.
My condor on RUT expires Wednesday. I have plenty of room there, unless the market goes bonkers.
The market shouldn't be too exuberant, I think. Nothing has changed in the real world.
Re options, I got away from my study for a while; it seems like just too much risk for a small account like mine. Especially these iron condors that you like to do. We'll see, though, what happens this summer. Good luck on your positions.
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I'm very happy that you've taken some time to investigate cash flow trading with credit spreads and condors. I don't think that every trader should do this, but I firmly believe that every trader deserves to know about it.
I paid money for a year-long for a year-long weekly seminar with a web instructor. We lived with the market in real time, and discussed how to adjust trades under real conditions. It's easy to set up these trades, but the real money comes in how to cut your losses when the trade goes against you. Without this skill, as you wisely say, the trades are much too risky.
Even after the year-long course, I still lost money for a while. The instructor could teach me techniques for dealing with situations, but he couldn't possibly teach me how to deal with my own fears and emotions. And even after a full year of paper-trading, it's just different with real money. I persevered because I knew it could work... but it wasn't painless.
I started this year with $55k. I have made $38k in condors. That's 69% YTD, and less than 6 months into the year. 100%/year returns are normal. Double your money.
But I have lost $16k in stock trades, mostly because I sold XLE at the bottom and waited to get back in. Currently at just $77k.
I still suck at basic delta trades on stock and ETF's. You and your mentors seem to be having success and income from this. For my part, I'm accumulating some buy-&-hold positions in XLE and XLK, selling covered calls when conditions are fortuitous. Also selling puts when I have cash to accumulate more. I just don't have the skills to predict and profit from short-term delta trades. It can be learned, and I must must learn when to buy and when to sell short.
I am in the paradoxical situation of profiting from stupidly complex trades while losing at stupidly simple trades. This is funny stuff! You might be my only friend who gets the joke.
Every trader needs to cultivate his own style. And then add styles to his repertoire, in order to thrive in any market. We could even support our families on this, if we were younger. It's hard to profit from the wisdom of age.
Buy-&-hold strategy makes over 10% per year, on the average, and we are in a way-below-average market return under Biden's regime. I'll do very well when he's fired. I will add normal 10+% market growth, plus using margin equity as collateral to support cash-flow option trades which could provide 100
% return on principal.
My realistic goal is $50K/year supplement to our retirement income, which could trigger as soon as June of next year.
I'm coming to visit you, and you deserve a special gift that will last a long while. A case of fine Scotch or bourbon, or some such. Start thinking about what you really enjoy. You started this thread, and I firmly believe this sharing has been a great financial benefit to my family. I tithe on it. I want to share some of this with you.
I'm going to make $1000/year on JEPI alone, which you recommended. So humbly endure a gift from me. And let's plan a meet-up.