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sweetandsour
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 09:11
sweetandsour wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 08:59
Del wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 08:41

Meh. This gust of exuberance won't last. Recession fears will kick back in next week when earnings season starts.
I'm reading too much energy news.
Multiple things can be true at the same time. I expect the market will lose this gust soon. But what is the energy news saying?
There's been much discussion lately on possible refined products export bans, and the effect(s). I tried to find this newsletter (pasted below) on the API site but failed. Here is today's copy which of course won't have active links. CEOs earlier have said that if exports are banned, then oil price will go to 150. Both API and Oil Co execs have also said that they expect ~80-85$ oil for the foreseeable future. LNG companies aren't betting on any ban, they're expanding both capacity and export capability. Plus they have contracts for the next several years already.

October 5, 2022
API SmartBrief
News for the natural gas and oil industry SIGN UP ⋅ SHARE
TOP STORY
Oil groups warn against refined products export ban
In a letter to Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the American Petroleum Institute and the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers urged the Biden administration "to disavow a refined product export ban or export restrictions," warning that such action "would likely decrease inventory levels, reduce domestic refining capacity, put upward pressure on consumer fuel prices, and alienate US allies during a time of war." In related news, sources said a ban or limits on natural gas exports this winter are off the table as the administration remains committed to ongoing liquefied natural gas exports to Europe. Full Story: Fox Business (10/4), Reuters (10/4)


INDUSTRY NEWS
US shale's response to OPEC+ output curbs will be muted
As the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies prepare to meet today to consider what could be the largest output cuts since 2020, energy executives warned the US shale industry won't step in to fill the gap amid persistent supply, labor and capital constraints. "Until more capital is made available for US producers, they'll be hard-pressed to increase production and OPEC will continue to have control over pricing," said Enterprise Offshore Drilling CEO Brad James. Full Story: Reuters (10/4)

Study: Gathering lines leaking more methane than thought
Permian Basin natural gas gathering lines are leaking at least 234,792 short tons of methane per year, which corresponds to an emission factor per pipeline kilometer that is 14 times greater than Environmental Protection Agency estimates, according to new research from Stanford University, the University of Arizona, the Environmental Defense Fund and Carbon Mapper. The study also found about 50% of the total emissions came from just 15% of the detected leaks. Full Story: Houston Chronicle (tiered subscription model) (10/4)

API data show drop in US crude oil, product stockpiles
US crude oil inventories slid by 1.77 million barrels last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles shed 3.47 million barrels and 4.05 million barrels, respectively, the American Petroleum Institute reported. Full Story: OilPrice (UK) (10/4)

Hydrogen successfully blended with gas in pilot project
A pilot project spearheaded by the New York Power Authority in partnership with the Electric Power Research Institute's Low-Carbon Resources Initiative and General Electric demonstrated combustion of hydrogen-natural gas blends on an LM6000 SAC gas turbine at the Brentwood Power Station on Long Island. A fuel blend containing 35% hydrogen slashed gas turbine outlet carbon dioxide emissions by about 14%, but nitrogen oxide emissions rose by up to 24% at higher levels of hydrogen, the results show. Full Story: Natural Gas Intelligence (tiered subscription model) (10/4)

POLICY WATCH
SCOTUS questions EPA's authority over wetlands
The US Supreme Court kicked off a new term on Monday by hearing oral arguments in Sackett v. EPA, with the justices questioning how the Environmental Protection Agency defines "adjacent" when applying the Clean Water Act to wetlands near navigable waters, as well as other aspects of the law. The ruling is due out by the end of June. Full Story: E&E News (10/3), Bloomberg Law (10/4), Reuters (10/3)

US, Mexico extend deadline to hash out energy dispute
A 75-day consultation period for the US and Mexico to resolve a dispute over the latter's energy policy reform expired on Monday, giving the US the right to file a request for a dispute resolution panel under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Instead, the nations have agreed to extend the consultation period in hopes of coming to an amicable agreement. Full Story: BNN Bloomberg (Canada) (10/3)
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Post by Del »

Hmmm. Biden wants to forbid US-based refineries to sell finished petroleum? We can't drill our own crude and we can't sell our finished goods?

Even if he gets his way, I don't think that will fly for long.

XLE is mostly Exxon and Chevron. Those multi-national companies will simply beef up their refineries located outside of America, just as they are drilling their oil fields outside of America. XLE will still boast great profits, even as America restricts our own supply and drive profits up for our investments.


Remember what I said before about technical analysis and fundamental analysis?

The supply/demand/regulatory environment are fundamentals.

Awareness of support/resistance/volatility due to recession fears & earnings season are technicals.

The fundamentals are great for XLE. (Not so great for XLK and SPY)

The technicals indicate that the market will likely give us a buying opportunity in the near future. So I'm going to wait for that and get some more XLE in the next few weeks.
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Post by Hugo Drax »

In today's pending sign of the Apocalypse, Del has become a Captain of Industry and has started expressing himself in the manner of a 1930's newsboy.

Set ship's condition Zebra. This is not a drill.
Weenies are us.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Hugo Drax wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 10:55

Set ship's condition Zebra. This is not a drill.
"That's where the sub goes under the ice to get to the weather station at the pole before the Russians. That's a good flick, I've seen it 2 or 3 times."

Edit, with a confession: The line I posted above now has quotes, because it's my older brother's line. He's an old Navy vet, and Viet Nam vet from the Tonkin Gulf Yacht Club, with his Shellback card still in his wallet. He always uses terms like Circle Williams, and batten down the hatches. Hugo's post reminded me of my brother, so I texted him and asked him about ship's condition zebra, and the above line was his reply, along with a somewhat scolding comment that he's watching the Astros vs Phillies at the moment ... last regular game of the season.
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Post by Hugo Drax »

sweetandsour wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 13:27
Hugo Drax wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 10:55

Set ship's condition Zebra. This is not a drill.
"That's where the sub goes under the ice to get to the weather station at the pole before the Russians. That's a good flick, I've seen it 2 or 3 times."

Edit, with a confession: The line I posted above now has quotes, because it's my older brother's line. He's an old Navy vet, and Viet Nam vet from the Tonkin Gulf Yacht Club, with his Shellback card still in his wallet. He always uses terms like Circle Williams, and batten down the hatches. Hugo's post reminded me of my brother, so I texted him and asked him about ship's condition zebra, and the above line was his reply, along with a somewhat scolding comment that he's watching the Astros vs Phillies at the moment ... last regular game of the season.
Hah. Yeah. He'll tell you more about it later. It's the highest ship's condition that can be set. If you haven't made your battle station by the time Zebra is set, you aren't getting there.
Weenies are us.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 10:25 Hmmm. Biden wants to forbid US-based refineries to sell finished petroleum? We can't drill our own crude and we can't sell our finished goods?

Even if he gets his way, I don't think that will fly for long.

XLE is mostly Exxon and Chevron. Those multi-national companies will simply beef up their refineries located outside of America, just as they are drilling their oil fields outside of America. XLE will still boast great profits, even as America restricts our own supply and drive profits up for our investments.


Remember what I said before about technical analysis and fundamental analysis?

The supply/demand/regulatory environment are fundamentals.

Awareness of support/resistance/volatility due to recession fears & earnings season are technicals.

The fundamentals are great for XLE. (Not so great for XLK and SPY)

The technicals indicate that the market will likely give us a buying opportunity in the near future. So I'm going to wait for that and get some more XLE in the next few weeks.
Meanwhile, there may be some opportunities. NVDA, again, maybe. UUP, trending up with no resistance. AES (chart showed 3 black crows?). NFLX, PLTR, FLSR (short term). Tomorrow should be interesting, increased volumes expected, with folks in the northeast returning from Yom Kippur holiday. Others on the move up, EPAM, ON, HES, CF. Besides SPY, some of my golf buddies are always talking about QQQ.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 15:38 Meanwhile, there may be some opportunities. NVDA, again, maybe. UUP, trending up with no resistance. AES (chart showed 3 black crows?). NFLX, PLTR, FLSR (short term). Tomorrow should be interesting, increased volumes expected, with folks in the northeast returning from Yom Kippur holiday. Others on the move up, EPAM, ON, HES, CF. Besides SPY, some of my golf buddies are always talking about QQQ.
Well, have fun!

I'm taking the week off. Headed to visit friends in Florida panhandle (far from the devastation of Ian). We are meeting with coco on Friday as we pass through!
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 19:24
sweetandsour wrote: 05 Oct 2022, 15:38 Meanwhile, there may be some opportunities. NVDA, again, maybe. UUP, trending up with no resistance. AES (chart showed 3 black crows?). NFLX, PLTR, FLSR (short term). Tomorrow should be interesting, increased volumes expected, with folks in the northeast returning from Yom Kippur holiday. Others on the move up, EPAM, ON, HES, CF. Besides SPY, some of my golf buddies are always talking about QQQ.
Well, have fun!

I'm taking the week off. Headed to visit friends in Florida panhandle (far from the devastation of Ian). We are meeting with coco on Friday as we pass through!
Safe travels!
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Post by Jocose »

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Post by Del »

Inflation news today.... not great.

Market is looking to establish a new low for the year.
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