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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 19 Oct 2022, 08:04
sweetandsour wrote: 19 Oct 2022, 04:56 I sold some SPY yesterday when it spiked up to 375. I had what the analysts were calling a weak hand, and apparently I wasn't the only one. The so-called overhead held the price at 374. Today it'll be interesting; futures are showing a drop. The question will be where to get back in.
What is a "weak hand"? What is this "overhead"? Not familiar with those terms.
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Happy birthday next week. 62? I retired when I was 62.

The analyst I was listening to referred to folks that bought SPY at ~270-273 as having a weak hand. They didn't sell, and watched it dropped to 255, etc. He was looking at the volume traded at various prices, and as SPY was rising on Monday and Tuesday he speculated that the weak handed crowd would be happy to just break even or make at least a buck or two, hence overhead, preventing the price from getting above that price. Apparently he was correct.
More and more I'm becoming a day trader. My patience is thin.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 19 Oct 2022, 09:48
Del wrote: 19 Oct 2022, 08:04
sweetandsour wrote: 19 Oct 2022, 04:56 I sold some SPY yesterday when it spiked up to 375. I had what the analysts were calling a weak hand, and apparently I wasn't the only one. The so-called overhead held the price at 374. Today it'll be interesting; futures are showing a drop. The question will be where to get back in.
What is a "weak hand"? What is this "overhead"? Not familiar with those terms.
============================================
Happy birthday next week. 62? I retired when I was 62.

The analyst I was listening to referred to folks that bought SPY at ~270-273 as having a weak hand. They didn't sell, and watched it dropped to 255, etc. He was looking at the volume traded at various prices, and as SPY was rising on Monday and Tuesday he speculated that the weak handed crowd would be happy to just break even or make at least a buck or two, hence overhead, preventing the price from getting above that price. Apparently he was correct.
More and more I'm becoming a day trader. My patience is thin.
Hmmmm.... so he was saying that the SP500 gapped up Tuesday in a surge of exuberance, and at 375 Mr. Market was spooked by the scary resistance at 379 - 380. Okay.

I lost a lot of money playing at day-trader.

If you are going to try that, learn how to sell short when your stock is at the top of the channel and falling. It's the same as buying low as the stock is rising, but somehow a guy needs to build a whole new mindset for this.

My RUT condor has dropped down to resistance, near the corner of my condor. Stat-teller says 35% chance of trouble now. (Stat-teller is a just a standard deviation bell curve. It doesn't know about resistance).

Anyhow, now I have to be mindful for a couple of hours until options expire. Dang it.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 19 Oct 2022, 09:48 ping
SPY is down somewhat today. XLE is surging.

Financial news is very bullish on energy, as I am.

I had 100 shares of XLE, and a covered call at 83.
When it got to 81 and it looked like I would likely get called out, I bought 100 more shares at 81. My plan was to end up with 100 shares in hand plus an extra $200. So far, so good.

Except now I really want to hold 300 shares, and I don't want to pay $84 for new shares at the new peak.

I am trusting that next week's GDP and unemployment numbers (due Thursday morning) will shock Mr. Market a bit, and some cheaper stuff will be available. So I am going to sell another put for next Friday on XLE.

Mr. Market might have that priced in already, as SPX marked a new low for the year just 4 trading days ago. But I don't think so. I think everything will be cheaper by the end of next week. We shall see.
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Post by Del »

I am very, very pleased with my position in XLE!

I bought 100 shares in late August at 82.41. Currently 86.54.

With dividend and selling puts & calls, am currently at $1370 gain. 16.6% in 2 months.

I just sold a call: Nov 18 @ 96.

I have two active puts that expire next Friday, at 83 and 81. If it dips next week on GDP report (Thurs), I might get assigned 100 or 200 more shares. I will be happy, whether I do or I don't.
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Post by Del »

Strap in for a volatility ride.

Lots of major earnings announcements this week, every morning and every evening. Mr. Market will be paying attention to forward guidance, too.

GDP report for 3rd quarter releases on Thurs morning, along with unemployment data.
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Post by sweetandsour »

I've bought and sold SPY several times already, but got sidetracked with other things and missed the last dip. I still have some shares that I bought at 390, so I was watching this mornings numbers with interest. The Fidelity analyst was pointing to a teacup shape on the SPX chart this morning, but he and his partner had different opinions. We'll see. Interesting week for sure.
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sweetandsour wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 08:35 I've bought and sold SPY several times already, but got sidetracked with other things and missed the last dip. I still have some shares that I bought at 390, so I was watching this mornings numbers with interest. The Fidelity analyst was pointing to a teacup shape on the SPX chart this morning, but he and his partner had different opinions. We'll see. Interesting week for sure.
Technical indicators can be iffy when financial news is coming at a fast and furious rate.

It is clear enough that Mr. Market is anxious to get going with a strong market recovery. Mr. Market is also liable to get clobbered.

For a meaningful cup-and-handle, I'd like to see SPY get up close to 385/390, then pull back to about 375 and return to 390 over the next week or 10 days. By that time, earnings season will have matured and the market will be more ration in its enthusiasm. That would be sign of a healthy recovery and a solid year-end.
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Post by Del »

Major dump of macro economic data this morning. Mostly, the news is good-ish.

GDP for Q3 indicates 2.6% annualized growth. This is a normal value, suggesting that we are not in a recession just yet.
GDP-Inflation is 4.1%, a bit less than expected. Still high (it held around 1.9% during Trump era). This is inflation over the whole economy. A different data/calculation from the Consumer Price Index, which measures the inflation that we feel as citizen-consumers.

New Unemployment Claims are maintaining a normal, Trump-era level. Indicates full employment, with possible risk of wage-driven inflation.

Together, these give the Fed permission to keep raising rates if they want to.

Core Durable Goods Orders are down -0.5% for September. Estimates were for positive 0.2%. This indicates that factories and such are cutting back on purchases of production equipment.

Mr. Market is calmly considering this and recent earnings data over a morning cigar and cup of coffee. I think I'll join him.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 27 Oct 2022, 06:53 Major dump of macro economic data this morning. Mostly, the news is good-ish.

GDP for Q3 indicates 2.6% annualized growth. This is a normal value, suggesting that we are not in a recession just yet.
GDP-Inflation is 4.1%, a bit less than expected. Still high (it held around 1.9% during Trump era). This is inflation over the whole economy. A different data/calculation from the Consumer Price Index, which measures the inflation that we feel as citizen-consumers.

New Unemployment Claims are maintaining a normal, Trump-era level. Indicates full employment, with possible risk of wage-driven inflation.

Together, these give the Fed permission to keep raising rates if they want to.

Core Durable Goods Orders are down -0.5% for September. Estimates were for positive 0.2%. This indicates that factories and such are cutting back on purchases of production equipment.

Mr. Market is calmly considering this and recent earnings data over a morning cigar and cup of coffee. I think I'll join him.
Me too. I missed my golf game today, too much going on here at the house. CAT made a big move, also looking at Honeywell and Comcast. Why did NVDA jump so high during the off hours?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 27 Oct 2022, 06:57
Del wrote: 27 Oct 2022, 06:53 Mr. Market is calmly considering this and recent earnings data over a morning cigar and cup of coffee. I think I'll join him.
Me too. I missed my golf game today, too much going on here at the house. CAT made a big move, also looking at Honeywell and Comcast. Why did NVDA jump so high during the off hours?
Apparently META (Facebook) announced a big capital spending plan to increase their data center. So Mr. Market bought chip makers.
https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/ ... fter-hours

Del wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 09:34
sweetandsour wrote: 25 Oct 2022, 08:35 I've bought and sold SPY several times already, but got sidetracked with other things and missed the last dip. I still have some shares that I bought at 390, so I was watching this mornings numbers with interest. The Fidelity analyst was pointing to a teacup shape on the SPX chart this morning, but he and his partner had different opinions. We'll see. Interesting week for sure.
For a meaningful cup-and-handle, I'd like to see SPY get up close to 385/390, then pull back to about 375 and return to 390 over the next week or 10 days. By that time, earnings season will have matured and the market will be more ration in its enthusiasm. That would be sign of a healthy recovery and a solid year-end.
Your guy at Fidelity was right about the little cup-and-handle forming at 375.

And it looks like a bigger teacup is developing under 387, as I mentioned in my reply. If the market consolidates for a few days and punches through 387, SPY could easily head up to 410.
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