Stock Trading

[Del]

I'm not ready or really set up financially for your so-called condors, but it's really interesting. I am getting close to applying for doing covered calls however through Fidelity, which is where my play account is. I got started trading NVDA, with it's ups and downs, but made the mistake of buying on a Friday dip, and it's dropped since then. But it's still bouncing, was down around 150 yesterday, and back up in the 170's this morning. In the past few weeks it's ranged from 150 to 200, but right now I'm about break even, from being ~20% ahead before this latest crash.

I checked the charts on NVDA. It looks like it is tracking with the rest of the SP500, for now.

Recent advice is all over the map. Some say BUY, others SELL, and others HOLD.

What is your time frame? How long do you plan to hold it? And what target price do you expect it to reach in that time frame?
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I don't want to scare you, but I would not buy NVDA. They are down 50% in six months....

Nvidia programs and sells microchips. They do not manufacture chips. They outsource their manufacturing to factories in China and Taiwan.
- China closed whole factories in recent months, due to covid outbreaks and their Zero Tolerance policy. This caused the ugly drop in stock price.
- If China threatens military action toward Taiwan (precipitated by Biden's demonstrated weakness), Nvidia's supply is entirely at risk.

Maybe the analysts recommending BUY trades know something about NVDA's alternative suppliers. But I don't.

Short term, NVDA will announce earnings on May 25. There could be a big move then -- if they miss their earnings estimate, or if they beat the estimate by a significant amount.

Intel beat their earnings on April 28, and still saw a big sell-off the next day -- which recovered quickly, but even now they are trading lower along with the rest of the market.

You and I must be looking at different charts, although lately NVDA has somewhat tracked with the S&P. Earlier this year the analysts projected a 30% growth by the end of the year, although the longest I held on to it was 3 days, up until now. But if I would have bought at 155 yesterday, I would have sold at 178 today. In March-April time frame I and some buddies bought at 210 and sold at 280, except one of the guys I was telling you about earlier, he sold half at 280 and sold a call on the other half. I don't know where he stands on that now. Anyway it dropped back down to 209 and several of us bought, (I only bought 20 shares, so it's not a big investment). It's flirted with 200 a couple times and I said I'd sell at 200 and buy something else on sale, but now I'm thinking just hold. Most of the analysts are saying buy, some say hold, and only 1 that I read said sell, but I can't remember why. Their earnings have increased each year, and are still projected to increase further, and their prospects for future AI and other uses look promising. Their system was hacked, and they in turn hacked the hackers. Now they recently were fined. Others are throwing darts for various reasons. And still, today the price rose by 15 points.
If you're day trading and watching for volatility, then Intel isn't interesting, but it's a very good stock. It has ranged from ~45 to ~50 for the past 6 months.

I only mentioned Intel to compare with another chip seller.

As for "time frame": I understand better what you are doing now.

There are day trades, which hold for minutes to a few days.
Swing trades, which hold for a week or two.
And long-term investors, who hold for months and often for years.

NVDA is a good choice for your short-term style.

These are all worthy strategies. You just have to match with your own personality and risk tolerance. Gotta be able to sleep at night. Gotta avoid the traps of gambling mentality.

My teacher recommends that an investor should have four things firmly in mind at the start of any trade. Acronym is TEST.

Target: What price you expect the trade to reach?
Entry: What price do want to enter the trade?
Stop: At what price will you bail out of the trade if it doesn't go the way you plan? How much maximum loss will you tolerate?
Time frame: When do you expect the trade to reach its target (or is this a long-term hold)?

My biggest newbie mistakes were failing to identify stops. Nobody likes to take a loss, so it's easy to hold on too long in the hope that the trade will recover on its own. Thus I ended up taking a much greater losses than I should have.

[sweetandsour]

I checked the charts on NVDA. It looks like it is tracking with the rest of the SP500, for now.

Recent advice is all over the map. Some say BUY, others SELL, and others HOLD.

What is your time frame? How long do you plan to hold it? And what target price do you expect it to reach in that time frame?
----------------------------------------

I don't want to scare you, but I would not buy NVDA. They are down 50% in six months....

Nvidia programs and sells microchips. They do not manufacture chips. They outsource their manufacturing to factories in China and Taiwan.
- China closed whole factories in recent months, due to covid outbreaks and their Zero Tolerance policy. This caused the ugly drop in stock price.
- If China threatens military action toward Taiwan (precipitated by Biden's demonstrated weakness), Nvidia's supply is entirely at risk.

Maybe the analysts recommending BUY trades know something about NVDA's alternative suppliers. But I don't.

Short term, NVDA will announce earnings on May 25. There could be a big move then -- if they miss their earnings estimate, or if they beat the estimate by a significant amount.

Intel beat their earnings on April 28, and still saw a big sell-off the next day -- which recovered quickly, but even now they are trading lower along with the rest of the market.

You and I must be looking at different charts, although lately NVDA has somewhat tracked with the S&P. Earlier this year the analysts projected a 30% growth by the end of the year, although the longest I held on to it was 3 days, up until now. But if I would have bought at 155 yesterday, I would have sold at 178 today. In March-April time frame I and some buddies bought at 210 and sold at 280, except one of the guys I was telling you about earlier, he sold half at 280 and sold a call on the other half. I don't know where he stands on that now. Anyway it dropped back down to 209 and several of us bought, (I only bought 20 shares, so it's not a big investment). It's flirted with 200 a couple times and I said I'd sell at 200 and buy something else on sale, but now I'm thinking just hold. Most of the analysts are saying buy, some say hold, and only 1 that I read said sell, but I can't remember why. Their earnings have increased each year, and are still projected to increase further, and their prospects for future AI and other uses look promising. Their system was hacked, and they in turn hacked the hackers. Now they recently were fined. Others are throwing darts for various reasons. And still, today the price rose by 15 points.
If you're day trading and watching for volatility, then Intel isn't interesting, but it's a very good stock. It has ranged from ~45 to ~50 for the past 6 months.

I only mentioned Intel to compare with another chip seller.

As for "time frame": I understand better what you are doing now.

There are day trades, which hold for minutes to a few days.
Swing trades, which hold for a week or two.
And long-term investors, who hold for months and often for years.

NVDA is a good choice for your short-term style.

These are all worthy strategies. You just have to match with your own personality and risk tolerance. Gotta be able to sleep at night. Gotta avoid the traps of gambling mentality.

My teacher recommends that an investor should have four things firmly in mind at the start of any trade. Acronym is TEST.

Target: What price you expect the trade to reach?
Entry: What price do want to enter the trade?
Stop: At what price will you bail out of the trade if it doesn't go the way you plan? How much maximum loss will you tolerate?
Time frame: When do you expect the trade to reach its target (or is this a long-term hold)?

My biggest newbie mistakes were failing to identify stops. Nobody likes to take a loss, so it's easy to hold on too long in the hope that the trade will recover on its own. Thus I ended up taking a much greater losses than I should have.

Thanks, yes, I need to pay more attention to the "S" part, that's a problem for me. But also the adage of not buying on a Friday, and especially a 3-day holiday. Where did you find a teacher?

[Del]

You and I must be looking at different charts, although lately NVDA has somewhat tracked with the S&P. Earlier this year the analysts projected a 30% growth by the end of the year, although the longest I held on to it was 3 days, up until now. But if I would have bought at 155 yesterday, I would have sold at 178 today. In March-April time frame I and some buddies bought at 210 and sold at 280, except one of the guys I was telling you about earlier, he sold half at 280 and sold a call on the other half. I don't know where he stands on that now. Anyway it dropped back down to 209 and several of us bought, (I only bought 20 shares, so it's not a big investment). It's flirted with 200 a couple times and I said I'd sell at 200 and buy something else on sale, but now I'm thinking just hold. Most of the analysts are saying buy, some say hold, and only 1 that I read said sell, but I can't remember why. Their earnings have increased each year, and are still projected to increase further, and their prospects for future AI and other uses look promising. Their system was hacked, and they in turn hacked the hackers. Now they recently were fined. Others are throwing darts for various reasons. And still, today the price rose by 15 points.
If you're day trading and watching for volatility, then Intel isn't interesting, but it's a very good stock. It has ranged from ~45 to ~50 for the past 6 months.

I only mentioned Intel to compare with another chip seller.

As for "time frame": I understand better what you are doing now.

There are day trades, which hold for minutes to a few days.
Swing trades, which hold for a week or two.
And long-term investors, who hold for months and often for years.

NVDA is a good choice for your short-term style.

These are all worthy strategies. You just have to match with your own personality and risk tolerance. Gotta be able to sleep at night. Gotta avoid the traps of gambling mentality.

My teacher recommends that an investor should have four things firmly in mind at the start of any trade. Acronym is TEST.

Target: What price you expect the trade to reach?
Entry: What price do want to enter the trade?
Stop: At what price will you bail out of the trade if it doesn't go the way you plan? How much maximum loss will you tolerate?
Time frame: When do you expect the trade to reach its target (or is this a long-term hold)?

My biggest newbie mistakes were failing to identify stops. Nobody likes to take a loss, so it's easy to hold on too long in the hope that the trade will recover on its own. Thus I ended up taking a much greater losses than I should have.

Thanks, yes, I need to pay more attention to the "S" part, that's a problem for me. But also the adage of not buying on a Friday, and especially a 3-day holiday. Where did you find a teacher?

Online. Good instruction costs money.

Do you know of Rob Kyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad?

Part of his financial training network includes Andy Tanner & friends, with decades of experience trading stocks and options.

The Cashflow Academy

Good training means "Having experienced teachers who tell you what they wish they had known when they got started."

Andy Tanner stresses his "Four Fundamentals of Investing." It's good advice. Whenever I have made expensive mistakes, at least I knew where I went wrong. I had failed to do and follow something in the Four Fundamentals, and I knew exactly what it was.

The Four Fundamentals are:

Fundamental Analysis: Stuff like..... How to look at a stock, understand its balance sheet. Is it managed well, and poised to grow? Also, what is the macro economic environment? GDP, interest rates. When I didn't like NVDA as a buy-&-hold position due to their supply being all in China and Taiwan, that was a quick fundamental analysis.

Technical Analysis: This is reading stock charts. Understanding support and resistance, trading range and trend channels. Volume for stock and open interest for options. You noticed the volatility and trading range for NVDA was good for short-term trades, that is technical analysis.

Risk Management: This is the Vital One, where most investors make our mistakes. Setting a suitable position size so that a bad trade doesn't blow up the account. Having a TEST plan for each stock trade. Having rules and strategies in place for what to do when the trade goes wrong. When the market dropped below my condor, I was exposed to lose $7000. But I had a plan, and I turned that loss into a gain of $1300. Part of that was lucky, but only because I had a risk management plan in place.

Cash Flow: This is the nuts-&-bolts of how to make trades that generate the returns. Learning how to use options as leverage means a little more risk, but a lot more return.
==================================================

I just did some technical analysis on your NVDA purchase from a week ago Friday. It was trading at support when you purchased, then immediately broke through and continued the downward trend. It has recovered to test the new resistance, and now it will likely drop further from its present trading level until the macro trend turns around.

Consider taking a small loss on this one while it is still trading close to your entry price.

Are you able to check the SP500 futures market on Sunday night and Monday morning?

I'll send you a PM, in case you want to look at the chart together.

[sweetandsour]

I only mentioned Intel to compare with another chip seller.

As for "time frame": I understand better what you are doing now.

There are day trades, which hold for minutes to a few days.
Swing trades, which hold for a week or two.
And long-term investors, who hold for months and often for years.

NVDA is a good choice for your short-term style.

These are all worthy strategies. You just have to match with your own personality and risk tolerance. Gotta be able to sleep at night. Gotta avoid the traps of gambling mentality.

My teacher recommends that an investor should have four things firmly in mind at the start of any trade. Acronym is TEST.

Target: What price you expect the trade to reach?
Entry: What price do want to enter the trade?
Stop: At what price will you bail out of the trade if it doesn't go the way you plan? How much maximum loss will you tolerate?
Time frame: When do you expect the trade to reach its target (or is this a long-term hold)?

My biggest newbie mistakes were failing to identify stops. Nobody likes to take a loss, so it's easy to hold on too long in the hope that the trade will recover on its own. Thus I ended up taking a much greater losses than I should have.

Thanks, yes, I need to pay more attention to the "S" part, that's a problem for me. But also the adage of not buying on a Friday, and especially a 3-day holiday. Where did you find a teacher?

Online. Good instruction costs money.

Do you know of Rob Kyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad?

Part of his financial training network includes Andy Tanner & friends, with decades of experience trading stocks and options.

The Cashflow Academy

Good training means "Having experienced teachers who tell you what they wish they had known when they got started."

Andy Tanner stresses his "Four Fundamentals of Investing." It's good advice. Whenever I have made expensive mistakes, at least I knew where I went wrong. I had failed to do and follow something in the Four Fundamentals, and I knew exactly what it was.

The Four Fundamentals are:

Fundamental Analysis: Stuff like..... How to look at a stock, understand its balance sheet. Is it managed well, and poised to grow? Also, what is the macro economic environment? GDP, interest rates. When I didn't like NVDA as a buy-&-hold position due to their supply being all in China and Taiwan, that was a quick fundamental analysis.

Technical Analysis: This is reading stock charts. Understanding support and resistance, trading range and trend channels. Volume for stock and open interest for options. You noticed the volatility and trading range for NVDA was good for short-term trades, that is technical analysis.

Risk Management: This is the Vital One, where most investors make our mistakes. Setting a suitable position size so that a bad trade doesn't blow up the account. Having a TEST plan for each stock trade. Having rules and strategies in place for what to do when the trade goes wrong. When the market dropped below my condor, I was exposed to lose $7000. But I had a plan, and I turned that loss into a gain of $1300. Part of that was lucky, but only because I had a risk management plan in place.

Cash Flow: This is the nuts-&-bolts of how to make trades that generate the returns. Learning how to use options as leverage means a little more risk, but a lot more return.
==================================================

I just did some technical analysis on your NVDA purchase from a week ago Friday. It was trading at support when you purchased, then immediately broke through and continued the downward trend. It has recovered to test the new resistance, and now it will likely drop further from its present trading level until the macro trend turns around.

Consider taking a small loss on this one while it is still trading close to your entry price.

Are you able to check the SP500 futures market on Sunday night and Monday morning?

I'll send you a PM, in case you want to look at the chart together.

I used to have a copy of the Rich Dad Poor Dad book, long time ago. I remember the gist of it but I'll try to locate it on my shelves based on your mention of it.
Meanwhile a friend of mine last night said he's about ready to dump his Boeing shares. He was telling me earlier that it was a good buy if it got into the 120s; they have orders for planes for the next 20 years. But for months it's been one bad news item after another for them.
He also has the same plan as me for NVDA, almost. He bought in the 160s last week. If it goes there again I'll buy some more. Then sell during a bump, and hope the gain + the loss will balance out.

[Del]

I used to have a copy of the Rich Dad Poor Dad book, long time ago. I remember the gist of it but I'll try to locate it on my shelves based on your mention of it.
Meanwhile a friend of mine last night said he's about ready to dump his Boeing shares. He was telling me earlier that it was a good buy if it got into the 120s; they have orders for planes for the next 20 years. But for months it's been one bad news item after another for them.
He also has the same plan as me for NVDA, almost. He bought in the 160s last week. If it goes there again I'll buy some more. Then sell during a bump, and hope the gain + the loss will balance out.

NVDA is trading near 179 in pre-market this morning! And there was a flash-crash down to 173 at 7:00 am. I am sorely tempted to sell short when the market opens and buy back when it tests the 160 floor at some point in the next two weeks.
=================================
The basic theme of Rich Dad Poor Dad is to commit to a lifetime of financial learning, learning how to take advantage of opportunities. He doesn't talk much about how to do it. The book is coaching encouragement to get started.

Another key lesson: Security is expensive. Most middle-class people pay a lot of money for the security of regular paycheck, mostly in taxes. W-2 job income is the most highly taxed type of income. Then we buy car loans, student loans, home loans, and home equity loans. We work at jobs all our lives, and pay half of our earnings in taxes and interest.

Meanwhile, the rich class learn how to embrace risk, manage it, and generate cash flow from passive assets. This income is taxed at much lower rates -- in part, because the government needs investors and entrepreneurs to sustain the financial markets, create the jobs, provide the housing, and produce the consumer goods and services for the job-working middle-class taxpayers. (And also because the Rich make the tax laws.)

I love being American Middle-Class. I love our culture and our values. Our lives are very rich, by any measure of human thriving. But it doesn't hurt to have extra cash flow from learning how to do a few rich-people things, like manage some rental properties or learn some stock trades!

When you are done thumbing through Rich Dad Poor Dad, I highly recommend Rob Kyosaki's sequel The Cash Flow Quadrant. It explains how the differences between the poor, middle class, and rich are due in our different attitudes towards money.

[Del]

ping

Well, I did it. I'm shorting NVDA.

I sold 100 shares at market open $180.89. I'm betting it goes down to $160. My protective stop is at $200.

[sweetandsour]

Did you see Walmart and Target today? Target dropped by 55 points just today. Missed their earnings big time. I think folks were still hitting retail outlets while ignoring inflation, but now it's just gotten to be too much to ignore.

[Del]

Is anybody else checking this thread? Just wondering.

Did you see Walmart and Target today? Target dropped by 55 points just today. Missed their earnings big time. I think folks were still hitting retail outlets while ignoring inflation, but now it's just gotten to be too much to ignore.

Home Depot was able to beat earnings estimates, due to their marketing efforts to professional contractors.

Lowes is mostly a DIY retailer. Inflation and the long, cold spring (I'm rooting for global warming, btw), they missed earnings badly. So did Walmart and Target.

I closed my short position in NVDA today. Fast $1200 profit. Nice play! It's a big chunk of the $5000 that I am up for the year-to-date. My goal for the entire year is something like $13,000.

I really want to thank you for the text messages and posts here. I don't have anyone to talk trades with, and it helps to learn together. I'd be $1200 poorer without you.

If we can ever meet again, I owe you a big steak and a night out drinking!

[Del]

ping

Hey, Tim....

Do you draw lines on your charts? Or at least visualize the lines in your mind?

Flat lines for Support and resistance?

Diagonal lines to identify trading channels?

It's a powerful tool of technical analysis. Just wondering if you use these.

[Biff]

ping

Hey, Tim....

Do you draw lines on your charts? Or at least visualize the lines in your mind?

Flat lines for Support and resistance?

Diagonal lines to identify trading channels?

It's a powerful tool of technical analysis. Just wondering if you use these.

I plot lines on my charts ... but then that's for sailing which is different than stonks.