Pres. Biden no longer seeking re-election

[sweetandsour]

... according to breaking news just now, from NYT, Houston Chronicle and others. This was already interesting, but will now become even more interesting, if you watch politics. I wonder how the market will react tomorrow.

[Wosbald]

+JMJ+

Say it ain't so, Joe!

[Hovannes]

He endorsed Kamala.
If she wins the election, Willie Brown is going to have epochal bragging rights.

[Del]

We are witnessing history in the unmaking.

[Del]

He endorsed Kamala.
If she wins the election, Willie Brown is going to have epochal bragging rights.

He taught her everything she knows, right?!

[Hovannes]

He endorsed Kamala.
If she wins the election, Willie Brown is going to have epochal bragging rights.

He taught her everything she knows, right?!

For the sake of Christian Charity, I must stifle my thoughts, LOL.

[sweetandsour]

Market futures are up so far.

[Del]

Market futures are up so far.

Ha!

Up, but just a little bit. A normal Sunday night opening market.

The futures market is saying, "This isn't bad news. But it's no big surprise, either."

[sweetandsour]

Market futures are up so far.

Ha!

Up, but just a little bit. A normal Sunday night opening market.

The futures market is saying, "This isn't bad news. But it's no big surprise, either."

Per Barron's:
President Joe Biden’s decision to end his bid for reelection on Sunday could have big implications for markets that traders are only beginning to process.

The immediate reaction seemed to be that stock futures rose, bond yields retreated, and the dollar fell. That could have been an incremental unwinding of the Trump trade of higher bond yields—a move that presumes a Donald Trump presidency, with higher tariffs on imports and big tax cuts, would be inflationary and thus necessitate higher interest rates.

To be clear, this isn’t because markets are pulling for either Trump or the Democratic nominee—Vice President Kamala Harris seems most likely at present—to win the vote in November. Markets don’t have political preferences, it’s just a cold calculation of what a victory for either side would mean for stocks and bonds.

If traders assume inflation will be faster than previously thought, it’s natural to sell bonds because inflation eats into returns. Those higher interest rates can, in turn, bolster the dollar because it means dollar-based investments will get higher nominal returns. That explains the bump in bond yields and the dollar after Biden’s unsteady debate performance at the end of June—though the dollar index has fallen since the debate, perhaps because of concern high tariffs under Trump might reduce trade.

Which makes a broader point—there are several things weighing on traders’ minds at the same time, and it isn’t just politics. Foremost is the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. A cut in September should, all other things being equal, push down on bond yields. Inflation data this week and the Fed’s July decision next week will add more color to the picture.

There are also company events to consider—CrowdStrike is still hurting from Friday’s technology outage. Verizon, Google-parent Alphabet, and Southwest Airlines report earnings this week.

As always, there are various factors competing for influence on share prices these days. Politics counts for more than usual, but it needn’t be the dominant consideration.

[Del]

Biden has been hiding.... His resignation from the campaign was issued as a tweet (Not an Oval Office moment like LBJ had).

We still haven't seen Joe. But he appears to have made a phone call to Kamala Campaign HQ today.

So far, it appears that Joe is still alive and aware that he has quit his campaign. Don't listen to any tinfoil hatters who say otherwise.

Listen:

https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1815506499373789366