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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 20 Feb 2023, 06:41 Market is closed today for Presidents' Day. I am still icing my bruises from XLE on Friday.

CPI (consumer inflation) came in just a little bit higher than expected on Tuesday.
PPI (wholesale goods) also a little bit higher than expected.
On Friday, a Fed Reserve board member commented that they might have to raise rates by 0.5% in March.

This triggered renewed fears of a global recession, and crude oil prices fell off. XLE dropped too, closing at 84.50.

I had a short put at 91 to expire on Feb 24. It was likely to close in the money.

But somebody exercised early and I was assigned on Friday evening.

World oil markets don't care about an American holiday. Oil has recovered nearly 1.5% already this Monday morning. If this holds up, XLE should open above 86 on Tuesday.
I almost bought some XLE at ~84 on Friday but demurred, holding to my personal rule of not buying before a long weekend. There's money to be made in options, but it seems more and more to me like saying there's money to be made by buying lotto tickets. But I'm still studying, and swing trading meanwhile. Tmrw will be interesting I believe.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 20 Feb 2023, 08:30 I almost bought some XLE at ~84 on Friday but demurred, holding to my personal rule of not buying before a long weekend. There's money to be made in options, but it seems more and more to me like saying there's money to be made by buying lotto tickets. But I'm still studying, and swing trading meanwhile. Tmrw will be interesting I believe.
I'm just strapped in for the ride this week. It could get scary.

Most analysts are predicting that crude oil and gasoline prices will move up in March and maintain high through the summer.

My condors on the indexes (SPX and Russell 2000) are behaving well.
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Post by sweetandsour »

In the news today: 1-year anniversary of Ukraine invasion.

But anyway, the market doesn't like this morning's numbers, and neither do I. Inflation ain't gone, I (and any other person) could have told them that. We're back to the 80's, and hoping we won't go back to the 70s. Don't look for any rate decreases any time soon.

Otherwise, I missed out on the NVDA earnings announcement during extended hours on Wed. I was ready but ended up having to do a good turn for my father in law, and was not at my computer. From a price of 208 to the 230s, is what it did. Oh well, looking for the next opportunity.
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sweetandsour wrote: 24 Feb 2023, 06:27 In the news today: 1-year anniversary of Ukraine invasion.

But anyway, the market doesn't like this morning's numbers, and neither do I. Inflation ain't gone, I (and any other person) could have told them that. We're back to the 80's, and hoping we won't go back to the 70s. Don't look for any rate decreases any time soon.

Otherwise, I missed out on the NVDA earnings announcement during extended hours on Wed. I was ready but ended up having to do a good turn for my father in law, and was not at my computer. From a price of 208 to the 230s, is what it did. Oh well, looking for the next opportunity.
Aye. This morning's inflation news came in a little hot, just like all the other recent inflation news. Market always acts like they are just hearing it for the first time. Global oil dropped on fears of global recession.

Some good news just dropped that has oil and XLE recovering. I don't know why yet. Market is very volatile/skittish, in any case.

I'm starting to feel foolish, but I remain patiently bullish on oil and energy. We may have to work through a global recession first, but eventually there will be a shortage of energy or a booming demand for energy. In the meantime, P/E ratios for energy companies are cheap.
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Post by Del »

The last 5 weeks have been a brutal ride. SPX closed right at the same close as 1/20/23. Flat and falling.

XLE is down 6 whole points from 1/20. Makes me wish I didn't have so much right now.

My account is up $1400 over 5 weeks, as I made a bit more on condors than I lost on XLE. But I have some short puts that I will have to honor over the next few weeks, so I am still highly leveraged on my XLE. If XLE falls a little, I fall a lot. Testing my patience, it is.

XLE is trading at long-established support. If it falls through this, I'm going to be in a world of hurt. If it recovers, I'll do extremely well. Only I don't see any motive for a quick recovery.

On the other hand, next week looks like it should be rather quiet, perhaps looking up a bit. Oil, XLE, and SPX are all trading at strong support. Friday afternoon recovered with a display of strength. Nice to see the bulls charging into the arena.

Not much news expected (although a couple of Fed members are scheduled to speak on Thursday and Friday). Maybe a chance to recover a bit.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 24 Feb 2023, 13:40 The last 5 weeks have been a brutal ride. SPX closed right at the same close as 1/20/23. Flat and falling.

XLE is down 6 whole points from 1/20. Makes me wish I didn't have so much right now.

My account is up $1400 over 5 weeks, as I made a bit more on condors than I lost on XLE. But I have some short puts that I will have to honor over the next few weeks, so I am still highly leveraged on my XLE. If XLE falls a little, I fall a lot. Testing my patience, it is.

XLE is trading at long-established support. If it falls through this, I'm going to be in a world of hurt. If it recovers, I'll do extremely well. Only I don't see any motive for a quick recovery.

On the other hand, next week looks like it should be rather quiet, perhaps looking up a bit. Oil, XLE, and SPX are all trading at strong support. Friday afternoon recovered with a display of strength. Nice to see the bulls charging into the arena.

Not much news expected (although a couple of Fed members are scheduled to speak on Thursday and Friday). Maybe a chance to recover a bit.
All of my trading funds have pretty much been on the side so far this year, but I did buy 20 shares of XLE at ~84, and put in a limit sell order at 89, thinking it could quickly hit that mark and I'd make a quick $100. I can't immediately recall why I thought it would bounce back at least momentarily, probably something I was reading in API reports. Typically if the dollar value drops then the oil price rises, so maybe I was reading some prediction on the dollar. Anyway, XLE was edging up to 85 in the extended market. We'll see what happens this weekend and Monday; otherwise keeping my powder dry.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 25 Feb 2023, 06:47 All of my trading funds have pretty much been on the side so far this year, but I did buy 20 shares of XLE at ~84, and put in a limit sell order at 89, thinking it could quickly hit that mark and I'd make a quick $100. I can't immediately recall why I thought it would bounce back at least momentarily, probably something I was reading in API reports. Typically if the dollar value drops then the oil price rises, so maybe I was reading some prediction on the dollar. Anyway, XLE was edging up to 85 in the extended market. We'll see what happens this weekend and Monday; otherwise keeping my powder dry.
Yeah. I already sold puts when I thought I would be very happy to buy XLE at 88 or 91. My powder is loaded in the guns with timers on the fuses. I will likely end up holding more XLE than I ought to. I'll be using margin.

I could close the puts now, but then I would miss out on any short-term recovery or bounce. I expect some recovery next week. But holding on means I am exposed to more drop.

I have decided to lash myself to the spars and hang on. I will likely have a very large position by the time XLE trades ex-dividend on March 20, so there is some relief. However, this means holding on through the Fed Rate announcement on 3/22.

If the Fed raises by 0.5% and talks hawkish, I could be waiting for a while. Or damn my luck and take some losses to cover margin.
If the Fed raises by 0.25% and talks "measured," I could catch a welcome wave of exuberance and reduce my position.

Let's hope the Fed is a bit more concerned about triggering a global recession, and a little less worried about reducing inflation swiftly.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 25 Feb 2023, 10:07
sweetandsour wrote: 25 Feb 2023, 06:47 All of my trading funds have pretty much been on the side so far this year, but I did buy 20 shares of XLE at ~84, and put in a limit sell order at 89, thinking it could quickly hit that mark and I'd make a quick $100. I can't immediately recall why I thought it would bounce back at least momentarily, probably something I was reading in API reports. Typically if the dollar value drops then the oil price rises, so maybe I was reading some prediction on the dollar. Anyway, XLE was edging up to 85 in the extended market. We'll see what happens this weekend and Monday; otherwise keeping my powder dry.
Yeah. I already sold puts when I thought I would be very happy to buy XLE at 88 or 91. My powder is loaded in the guns with timers on the fuses. I will likely end up holding more XLE than I ought to. I'll be using margin.

I could close the puts now, but then I would miss out on any short-term recovery or bounce. I expect some recovery next week. But holding on means I am exposed to more drop.

I have decided to lash myself to the spars and hang on. I will likely have a very large position by the time XLE trades ex-dividend on March 20, so there is some relief. However, this means holding on through the Fed Rate announcement on 3/22.

If the Fed raises by 0.5% and talks hawkish, I could be waiting for a while. Or damn my luck and take some losses to cover margin.
If the Fed raises by 0.25% and talks "measured," I could catch a welcome wave of exuberance and reduce my position.

Let's hope the Fed is a bit more concerned about triggering a global recession, and a little less worried about reducing inflation swiftly.
"Higher for longer", is what I'm hearing. The odds of 25 basis point increase are fading. Meanwhile, I saw this article this morning ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/en ... quote_news
Insiders were buying at about the same time that I was, so there's that.
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Post by sweetandsour »

sweetandsour wrote: 27 Feb 2023, 06:26
Del wrote: 25 Feb 2023, 10:07
sweetandsour wrote: 25 Feb 2023, 06:47 All of my trading funds have pretty much been on the side so far this year, but I did buy 20 shares of XLE at ~84, and put in a limit sell order at 89, thinking it could quickly hit that mark and I'd make a quick $100. I can't immediately recall why I thought it would bounce back at least momentarily, probably something I was reading in API reports. Typically if the dollar value drops then the oil price rises, so maybe I was reading some prediction on the dollar. Anyway, XLE was edging up to 85 in the extended market. We'll see what happens this weekend and Monday; otherwise keeping my powder dry.
Yeah. I already sold puts when I thought I would be very happy to buy XLE at 88 or 91. My powder is loaded in the guns with timers on the fuses. I will likely end up holding more XLE than I ought to. I'll be using margin.

I could close the puts now, but then I would miss out on any short-term recovery or bounce. I expect some recovery next week. But holding on means I am exposed to more drop.

I have decided to lash myself to the spars and hang on. I will likely have a very large position by the time XLE trades ex-dividend on March 20, so there is some relief. However, this means holding on through the Fed Rate announcement on 3/22.

If the Fed raises by 0.5% and talks hawkish, I could be waiting for a while. Or damn my luck and take some losses to cover margin.
If the Fed raises by 0.25% and talks "measured," I could catch a welcome wave of exuberance and reduce my position.

Let's hope the Fed is a bit more concerned about triggering a global recession, and a little less worried about reducing inflation swiftly.
"Higher for longer", is what I'm hearing. The odds of 25 basis point increase are fading. Meanwhile, I saw this article this morning ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/en ... quote_news
Insiders were buying at about the same time that I was, so there's that.
Another interesting piece ...

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil-hedging ... -1.1884341
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 28 Feb 2023, 01:46 Another interesting piece ...

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/oil-hedging ... -1.1884341
Stable oil prices are a good thing for the world, as a whole. Still high, but stable.

Today's market is weird. Oil is up by more than 1.5% from yesterday, but XLE is down 1%. It's even worse than it sounds, as XLE opened quite optimistically UP this morning.

I have never seen XLE prices so untethered from the oil they produce. Something powerful and odd is at play.

I was able to sell some covered calls at this morning's open at decent premium, as I wouldn't mind getting called out at 88.5.
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