Stock Trading

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sweetandsour
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Post by sweetandsour »

sweetandsour wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 09:07
Del wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 06:05
sweetandsour wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 02:39
Ok, so which stock or etf are you watching this week?
I found some great premium on my old friend, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). I have an iron condor that expires on Wednesday, and it is behaving well.

Mr. Market was not spooked by the latest high inflation being a bit higher than expected. Nor did Mr. Market react to rumors from the Fed's voting members that they might want to raise rates by a full point next week. It looks like all the bad news is priced in already, and this current slump has hit bottom. Mr. Market is looking for a direction, something big to change one way or the other.

I don't even think the GDP news will trigger much. Market expects a small bit of growth or contraction, basically flat economy.

All eyes are on corporate earnings now. Mr. Market sure woke up in a good mood this Monday morning.
=========================================

I'm watching NVDA for you. Nancy's husband just exercised a bunch call options, so now he's holding NVDA for more growth from here.* And there's some legislation in Congress to subsidize chip manufacturers to ease our vital chip shortages.

For an investor who doesn't think the recession will be too long or deep, and who is looking for a stock to accumulate and hold -- NVDA looks pretty good right now. It's trading at 163 and rising in pre-market this morning.


* Paul Pelosi bought 200 call options at $100 strike one year ago. He was forced to take action on them at their expiration on 6/17/22. So this wasn't "insider trading," no matter what the right-wing media says.

All the same, Pelosi is an insider. He could have cashed out (a bearish outlook) or exercised to purchase and hold (bullish outlook). He chose to buy and hold. The congressional subsidy legislation is public knowledge.

I did some estimations based the news report (not likely accurate, but still a fun exercise). Paul Pelosi lost money on this deal. He should break even when NVDA gets back up to 190 or so.
Yeah, Mr Market isn't cooperating lately for someone wanting a little more daily volatility. I should have bought NVDA at 145, but it didn't stay there long enough for me to get on it. It promptly went to 156 and stayed there for a week, but I had just sold shares that I previously bought at 156. So, now it's sitting at 166. I'm almost tempted to just buy SPY and let it sit there until I find another stock to try to time on a daily basis.
NVDA is bumping against 180. I'm getting antsy.
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Del
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 20 Jul 2022, 07:56
sweetandsour wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 09:07
Del wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 06:05

I found some great premium on my old friend, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). I have an iron condor that expires on Wednesday, and it is behaving well.

Mr. Market was not spooked by the latest high inflation being a bit higher than expected. Nor did Mr. Market react to rumors from the Fed's voting members that they might want to raise rates by a full point next week. It looks like all the bad news is priced in already, and this current slump has hit bottom. Mr. Market is looking for a direction, something big to change one way or the other.

I don't even think the GDP news will trigger much. Market expects a small bit of growth or contraction, basically flat economy.

All eyes are on corporate earnings now. Mr. Market sure woke up in a good mood this Monday morning.
=========================================

I'm watching NVDA for you. Nancy's husband just exercised a bunch call options, so now he's holding NVDA for more growth from here.* And there's some legislation in Congress to subsidize chip manufacturers to ease our vital chip shortages.

For an investor who doesn't think the recession will be too long or deep, and who is looking for a stock to accumulate and hold -- NVDA looks pretty good right now. It's trading at 163 and rising in pre-market this morning.


* Paul Pelosi bought 200 call options at $100 strike one year ago. He was forced to take action on them at their expiration on 6/17/22. So this wasn't "insider trading," no matter what the right-wing media says.

All the same, Pelosi is an insider. He could have cashed out (a bearish outlook) or exercised to purchase and hold (bullish outlook). He chose to buy and hold. The congressional subsidy legislation is public knowledge.

I did some estimations based the news report (not likely accurate, but still a fun exercise). Paul Pelosi lost money on this deal. He should break even when NVDA gets back up to 190 or so.
Yeah, Mr Market isn't cooperating lately for someone wanting a little more daily volatility. I should have bought NVDA at 145, but it didn't stay there long enough for me to get on it. It promptly went to 156 and stayed there for a week, but I had just sold shares that I previously bought at 156. So, now it's sitting at 166. I'm almost tempted to just buy SPY and let it sit there until I find another stock to try to time on a daily basis.
NVDA is bumping against 180. I'm getting antsy.
NVDA won't report earnings until late August, so it's just tracking with the S&P for now. Both NVDA and the index broke through resistance and heading upward.

Next line of resistance starts at 182.5. We'll probably see it this week, as the market is pretty happy with earnings they have seen thus far.

What's your target or desired price point?

My index busted through my condor this morning. I had to make a bunch of adjustments, basically wiping out all of my profit for July.

Mr. Market is seeing gas prices drop a bit and earnings looking strong. Mr. Market has pretty much forgotten about any recession fears today.
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Post by Del »

Mr. Market is just chilling with a cigar lately.

The market absorbed the Fed rate hike and the small contraction of GDP without much of a reaction. Corporate earnings aren't too bad, employment numbers are still pretty strong, and investors are trickling back into the market.

The overall trend is up, but not wildly so. Good environment for selling my iron condors.

NVDA is trading at $185 - $190. They will report earnings on 8/24 after market close.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 10:17 Mr. Market is just chilling with a cigar lately.

The market absorbed the Fed rate hike and the small contraction of GDP without much of a reaction. Corporate earnings aren't too bad, employment numbers are still pretty strong, and investors are trickling back into the market.

The overall trend is up, but not wildly so. Good environment for selling my iron condors.

NVDA is trading at $185 - $190. They will report earnings on 8/24 after market close.
Will there be another dip?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 10:53
Del wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 10:17 Mr. Market is just chilling with a cigar lately.
Will there be another dip?
Ha! I can write a long post to explain how I have no idea what's going to happen...

NVDA will post earnings on 8/24. If they exceed or miss the market estimate by much, the price could gap up or down significantly.

S&P500 has reached a point of strong resistance. It will need some good news to punch upward. A drop in the inflation rate (July CPI reports on Aug 10), a not-too-big increase in unemployment (easing inflation pressure) (reports Aug 11), maybe some better-than-expected earnings in big sectors.

The risk of bad news is also present -- enough to cause a moderate-to-deep pull back. Bad inflation numbers, adverse employment stats (either high unemployment or over-full employment), a rise in oil and energy costs, China flexing to attack Taiwan or Russia surging in Ukraine, a big hurricane in the Gulf, ...

Until we get some news, I expect the S&P to trade between 4000 and 4200. It's at 4150 right now.
NVDA has good support at 181, and resistance at 193. trading at 188.25 now.

In general, I don't believe that we are at the start of a long, bad recession. Neither does the market. The market has fully adjusted to Bidenflation, we have seen the worst, and now we are just standing by and waiting for recovery conditions.

In short -- I don't expect another steep pull-back unless we get clobbered by something. But there are a lot of muggers out there.
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Post by sweetandsour »

NVDA resistance keeps creeping upward. I still have sellers remorse from a couple weeks ago, even though I made a profit. If theres another dip I'm buying again, but I ain't selling until it goes above 200, then I'll unload it all. I missed out on SPY, by not paying attention and then never jumped in, just watching it climb now and feeling left out.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 03 Aug 2022, 14:54 NVDA resistance keeps creeping upward. I still have sellers remorse from a couple weeks ago, even though I made a profit. If theres another dip I'm buying again, but I ain't selling until it goes above 200, then I'll unload it all. I missed out on SPY, by not paying attention and then never jumped in, just watching it climb now and feeling left out.
You've got a good shot at 200. Especially if NVDA beats earnings estimates on Aug. 24. NVDA has a strong history of beating estimates, and a lot will depend on the company's disclosures of future outlook.

There is strong support at 181. The market is testing resistance now, trying to push through. There was a new high today above 192, testing resistance that was established early last June.

NVDA is still tracking with the S&P. Broader market is still trending up and also testing resistance, having recently established new strong support.
THE TREND IS UP for the last 6 weeks, and this is your most important technical indicator.

Your omens are looking pretty good! But prepare to be patient.... market has had a good run for three weeks, and may take a few days now to consolidate gains before surging forward.

Meanwhile, NVDA still does almost all of their manufacturing in Taiwan. The market has not been spooked yet by China's response to Pelosi's visit, but NVDA is especially vulnerable.
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Post by Del »

Market is a little spooked this morning over the latest jobs report.

NVDA is down $5 in premarket trading. Probably temporary.

[EDIT] yep... temporary. About an hour after market opened, NVDA is back within a whisper of yesterday's close near 192.

$200 is still on target. Even more secure now.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 05 Aug 2022, 06:24 Market is a little spooked this morning over the latest jobs report.

NVDA is down $5 in premarket trading. Probably temporary.

[EDIT] yep... temporary. About an hour after market opened, NVDA is back within a whisper of yesterday's close near 192.

$200 is still on target. Even more secure now.
Do you read Barrons? There's some interesting articles on buying/selling options.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 05 Aug 2022, 08:18
Del wrote: 05 Aug 2022, 06:24 Market is a little spooked this morning over the latest jobs report.

NVDA is down $5 in premarket trading. Probably temporary.

[EDIT] yep... temporary. About an hour after market opened, NVDA is back within a whisper of yesterday's close near 192.

$200 is still on target. Even more secure now.
Do you read Barrons? There's some interesting articles on buying/selling options.
Reading and learning is a joyful hobby, all by itself. Trading with monopoly money is good experience.

I don't subscribe to Barron's. There are plenty of free articles available all over the 'net. And I have a course that I paid for that walks through simple-to-complicated trading of stocks and options, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and risk management.

I don't know much about trading market futures and nothing about forex.

Commodities markets are not my bag either; I've watched silver and crude oil enough to stay away. I'm badly underwater on my copper holding, but it isn't costing me to wait until the world economic situation recovers.
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