Stock Trading

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Del
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 10 Aug 2022, 10:16 There's money to be made just day trading NVDA's ups and downs. I just haven't caught the rhythm lately, or maybe just a little too greedy. But anyway I put in a limit order for 170 this morning, and it's at 178 at the moment.
Day-trading is its own discipline. I don't even dabble in it. Too much like gambling for me.

Tomorrow morning there will be some more inflation data -- this will be more forward-looking, compared to today's historical analysis of last month's data.

With any luck, the market will spook in the morning, grab your NVDA at 170, and recover quickly later in the day -- just like what happened today. Maybe.
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sweetandsour wrote: 10 Aug 2022, 10:16 There's money to be made just day trading NVDA's ups and downs. I just haven't caught the rhythm lately, or maybe just a little too greedy. But anyway I put in a limit order for 170 this morning, and it's at 178 at the moment.
The forward-looking inflation data was favorable, and the unemployment report this morning was as-expected. Mr. Market is feeling pleased with himself this morning.

NVDA is recovering a bit stronger than the overall market. Trading at 186 right now -- about midpoint between your buy-point and your sell-point. You're just going to have to be patient now.

Since NVDA already published earnings guidance last week (shocking their stock price quite a bit), I don't expect any shocking results when they announce earnings on 8/24.
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I just sold another condor on RUT for this week (expires Wed, 8/17). $5000 at risk, 85% chance of closing within my range, premium $688 received.

The percentage/odds are not as reliable as watching the support/resistance evident on the charts.
===========================

I just bought some more copper.

I had 400 shares of CPER (currently trading at 22.26). I have 200 shares covered by a call at $23 which will likely be called out at expiration next Friday 8/16.

Rather than pay to roll up the call, I thought I would just buy 200 more shares at 22.4 to replace them. Then I sold Sept. 16 calls at strike $25 (for $23! -- kaChing!)
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Post by sweetandsour »

I put in a limit sell order for some NVDA this morning at 191. We'll see if it gets there.
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sweetandsour wrote: 15 Aug 2022, 08:44 I put in a limit sell order for some NVDA this morning at 191. We'll see if it gets there.
I think it will hit that mark this week. NVDA got up to 190.55 during the opening frenzy this morning.

China released some economic data this morning. They say that their economy is recessing a bit, due to prolonged covid shutdowns (and likely world energy prices too). I don't know how much to trust China.... could be better or worse than they say. I don't know how the global markets and the multinational corps of the S&P500 are affected by this. Everyone is just digesting the information today.

As of mid-day on Monday, S&P500 is up a bit -- continuing a four-week climb up from the bear's bottom. There's still some steam left in the boiler.

Several big retail stores are reporting earnings this week. Also aggregate retail sales for July will report on Wednesday morning. Minutes from the last FED Board mtg release on Wed afternoon. If the news is half-way decent, the market might bouy NVDA up a bit, ahead of their own earnings announcement on Aug. 24.
======================================

That condor I sold last Thursday (Aug 11) on RUT for $688.... I rolled up the puts late on Friday for an additional $173 (total = $861 this week). It's trading right down the middle now, with 2.5 trading days to expiration. Currently 10% chance of the index moving outside my goalposts.

It's always good news until it's bad news, with these option strategies.
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Summer Trading Results:

Just looking through my trading log. I thought it would be fun to look at my results in a table.

It has been a very good Quarter thus far, with the market enjoying a steady recovery during the earnings season. My copper position is down 4%, but I'm holding it patiently until fears of a global recession have passed. I'm not including the copper results, as that position is still open. I sell covered calls every month on it to milk some cash flow.

This is all condors (except for some hedging with futures when needed, part of the condor strategy).
If anyone is interested, here's a link on building iron condors. It's rather technical, so I'll answer any questions on what I'm doing -- if anyone is interested.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ironcondor.asp

The basic strategy is to pick a stock index, a high and a low, and an expiration date. Then arrange a trade in which I make a profit if the index closes between the high and the low at the expiration date.

I trade options on the Russell 2000 index (RUT). This works just as well on any broad index, like S&P500 (SPX).

I do one-week contracts, expiring on Wednesdays. I put $5000 at risk each week.
My goal is to make more than 10% ($500) while keeping my risk of failure under 10%. When the trade goes against me, I make adjustments so that I never, never, never lose the entire $5000. When the trade goes well, I make adjustments to squeeze some extra premium out of the deal.

Week ending; profit/loss:
7/6 $693
7/13 $1194
7/20 $1073
7/27 $-1614
8/3 $1071
8/10 $1328
8/17 $934

I made bank of $4679 on $5000 at risk. That's 93.6% return in just 7 weeks! I wish it could be like this every week, all year round.... but it's like crawfish season. Really good, while it lasts.

I have another 7 weeks before Q3 ends. It should get easier, as earnings season matures.

I made of a lot of risky trades and bad mistakes during the first half of the year, so my total profit this year-to-date is $6359. That's 26% on a portfolio that started at $24,000.

This is the first year that I expect to show a profit over the whole year. Then I gotta pay taxes on that.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 17 Aug 2022, 13:27 Summer Trading Results:

Just looking through my trading log. I thought it would be fun to look at my results in a table.

It has been a very good Quarter thus far, with the market enjoying a steady recovery during the earnings season. My copper position is down 4%, but I'm holding it patiently until fears of a global recession have passed. I'm not including the copper results, as that position is still open. I sell covered calls every month on it to milk some cash flow.

This is all condors (except for some hedging with futures when needed, part of the condor strategy).
If anyone is interested, here's a link on building iron condors. It's rather technical, so I'll answer any questions on what I'm doing -- if anyone is interested.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ironcondor.asp

The basic strategy is to pick a stock index, a high and a low, and an expiration date. Then arrange a trade in which I make a profit if the index closes between the high and the low at the expiration date.

I trade options on the Russell 2000 index (RUT). This works just as well on any broad index, like S&P500 (SPX).

I do one-week contracts, expiring on Wednesdays. I put $5000 at risk each week.
My goal is to make more than 10% ($500) while keeping my risk of failure under 10%. When the trade goes against me, I make adjustments so that I never, never, never lose the entire $5000. When the trade goes well, I make adjustments to squeeze some extra premium out of the deal.

Week ending; profit/loss:
7/6 $693
7/13 $1194
7/20 $1073
7/27 $-1614
8/3 $1071
8/10 $1328
8/17 $934

I made bank of $4679 on $5000 at risk. That's 93.6% return in just 7 weeks! I wish it could be like this every week, all year round.... but it's like crawfish season. Really good, while it lasts.

I have another 7 weeks before Q3 ends. It should get easier, as earnings season matures.

I made of a lot of risky trades and bad mistakes during the first half of the year, so my total profit this year-to-date is $6359. That's 26% on a portfolio that started at $24,000.

This is the first year that I expect to show a profit over the whole year. Then I gotta pay taxes on that.
Well that looks like you've done pretty well. Best of luck with the copper position.

At a glance this morning, my trading account is +5.02% for the year. All I've done is trade (buy and sell), without being designated as a day trader by Fidelity, which requires a $25k minimum balance. (I consider 25k a little high for what I call my "play account" at this point.) But I've applied just this week, to trade options and was immediately approved (kind of scary), so I'm working myself up to do covered calls in order to generate some income. This morning I'm playing golf with my Thursday golf group, 7:30 tee time; so that'll give me a little time to think about it.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 18 Aug 2022, 03:27
Well that looks like you've done pretty well. Best of luck with the copper position.

At a glance this morning, my trading account is +5.02% for the year. All I've done is trade (buy and sell), without being designated as a day trader by Fidelity, which requires a $25k minimum balance. (I consider 25k a little high for what I call my "play account" at this point.) But I've applied just this week, to trade options and was immediately approved (kind of scary), so I'm working myself up to do covered calls in order to generate some income. This morning I'm playing golf with my Thursday golf group, 7:30 tee time; so that'll give me a little time to think about it.
As I understand it, a guy has to hold 100 shares in order to sell 1 call contract. Each contract covers a "lot" of 100 shares.

When I was shopping for a copper ETF, I had three criteria:
1) Share price around $25 or $50, so I could afford to buy 100 or 200 shares.
2) Options traded on that ETF.
3) Sufficient open interest (trading volume) in the options, so that the bid - ask spread wasn't too far apart.

Rule of Thumb: Over a year, you can make about 10% on the value of the underlying stock with covered calls at a risk rate of 10%. That's about 1% per month.

Be careful with this strategy on volatile stocks, if you are swinging for the bleachers of stock growth. Covered calls are great for index ETF's, or stodgy investments that pay dividends instead of promising fast growth. If the underlying goes up 10% with the market and you make another 10% selling calls, you have a pretty good year!

On the other hand, if you have $2500 invested and you sell a call that expires next month for $20, you don't exactly feel like you've just struck oil.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 18 Aug 2022, 06:02
sweetandsour wrote: 18 Aug 2022, 03:27
Well that looks like you've done pretty well. Best of luck with the copper position.

At a glance this morning, my trading account is +5.02% for the year. All I've done is trade (buy and sell), without being designated as a day trader by Fidelity, which requires a $25k minimum balance. (I consider 25k a little high for what I call my "play account" at this point.) But I've applied just this week, to trade options and was immediately approved (kind of scary), so I'm working myself up to do covered calls in order to generate some income. This morning I'm playing golf with my Thursday golf group, 7:30 tee time; so that'll give me a little time to think about it.
As I understand it, a guy has to hold 100 shares in order to sell 1 call contract. Each contract covers a "lot" of 100 shares.

When I was shopping for a copper ETF, I had three criteria:
1) Share price around $25 or $50, so I could afford to buy 100 or 200 shares.
2) Options traded on that ETF.
3) Sufficient open interest (trading volume) in the options, so that the bid - ask spread wasn't too far apart.

Rule of Thumb: Over a year, you can make about 10% on the value of the underlying stock with covered calls at a risk rate of 10%. That's about 1% per month.

Be careful with this strategy on volatile stocks, if you are swinging for the bleachers of stock growth. Covered calls are great for index ETF's, or stodgy investments that pay dividends instead of promising fast growth. If the underlying goes up 10% with the market and you make another 10% selling calls, you have a pretty good year!

On the other hand, if you have $2500 invested and you sell a call that expires next month for $20, you don't exactly feel like you've just struck oil.
20% is what I'm looking for.

Btw I made $13 playing golf yesterday. But got no stock tips. Opinions are split on whether we're in a bear rally or a new bull market.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 19 Aug 2022, 03:26
Del wrote: 18 Aug 2022, 06:02
sweetandsour wrote: 18 Aug 2022, 03:27
Well that looks like you've done pretty well. Best of luck with the copper position.

At a glance this morning, my trading account is +5.02% for the year. All I've done is trade (buy and sell), without being designated as a day trader by Fidelity, which requires a $25k minimum balance. (I consider 25k a little high for what I call my "play account" at this point.) But I've applied just this week, to trade options and was immediately approved (kind of scary), so I'm working myself up to do covered calls in order to generate some income. This morning I'm playing golf with my Thursday golf group, 7:30 tee time; so that'll give me a little time to think about it.
As I understand it, a guy has to hold 100 shares in order to sell 1 call contract. Each contract covers a "lot" of 100 shares.

When I was shopping for a copper ETF, I had three criteria:
1) Share price around $25 or $50, so I could afford to buy 100 or 200 shares.
2) Options traded on that ETF.
3) Sufficient open interest (trading volume) in the options, so that the bid - ask spread wasn't too far apart.

Rule of Thumb: Over a year, you can make about 10% on the value of the underlying stock with covered calls at a risk rate of 10%. That's about 1% per month.

Be careful with this strategy on volatile stocks, if you are swinging for the bleachers of stock growth. Covered calls are great for index ETF's, or stodgy investments that pay dividends instead of promising fast growth. If the underlying goes up 10% with the market and you make another 10% selling calls, you have a pretty good year!

On the other hand, if you have $2500 invested and you sell a call that expires next month for $20, you don't exactly feel like you've just struck oil.
20% is what I'm looking for.

Btw I made $13 playing golf yesterday. But got no stock tips. Opinions are split on whether we're in a bear rally or a new bull market.
There's a lot to worry about.... Two more years of Bidenflation, for certain. Risk of collapse in China's real estate bubble. China even could decide that now is the time to invade Taiwan (perhaps to distract from their economic collapse?). Putin ain't leaving Ukraine. Iran & Taliban. Biden's latest meddling "inflation reduction" act.

So I'm rather bullish!

Real growth is fought and won by straining against the risks. Always "Climbing the Wall of Worry." Businesses face the risks, find opportunities, and continue to create value for people and wealth for investors.

When market growth is fast and easy, betting on promises and future tech and promises that haven't been invented yet.... that's irrational exuberance. It looks easy, like bait in a trap. The market bubble created by the valueless covid money was never real wealth to begin with.

I don't believe that we have yet entered a secular bear market or a global recession economy. On the other hand, we can't get any growth going under Biden's policies of tight energy and weak diplomacy. The market could be basically flat for two years, like it was during 2015-16 (final two years of Obama).
=============================

I'm going to give copper another month. If Chinese building slows down, Ukraine doesn't rebuild as a free country, US industry is in doldrums, and US housing enters a recession.... I ain't gonna make future bank in copper.

Meanwhile, I want that "Inflation Reduction Act" money -- which is almost entirely going to subsidize green power stuff -- to have a chance to influence the copper demand. I might even make enough to pay for my audit.
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