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Post by gaining_age »

Del wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 06:54 Copper keeps gapping down. I've lost close to 20% on my position.

This looks very bad for the world economy, as a whole. It looks like the world is shutting down plans for construction of homes and buildings and factories for a while.
Uncertainty is difficult for a market to sort itself out.
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Post by Del »

Yield curve inversion again, yesterday and this morning. 2-year Treasury yield is greater than the 10-year yield.

This recession warning signal keeps flashing on and off.


My guess for "most likely worst-case" recession scenario is a few years of high inflation, fairly high unemployment, and scary stock market volatility. Oil prices will drive the world markets. It might break in 2025, but it could go on for a decade or more.

-- Upside: World markets will cling to the hope that a Republican regime in the US will restore energy production and stabilize the world. This will take more than mere permission to drill. Oil companies won't invest much unless they can be assured that they won't get Biden-slapped by the next Dem-entia regime. Taxpayers will probably have to invest in pipelines and refinery infrastructure.

-- Downside: In addition to market panics, both Russia and China can see opportunities to take over land and nations they covet while America and the West are starving ourselves for energy.
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Post by Del »

Stock market accepted the bad inflation news just like they were expecting it.

We are entering earnings season now, with several big banks reporting Q2 already this week. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the market's trajectory for the rest of the summer.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 06:59 Stock market accepted the bad inflation news just like they were expecting it.

We are entering earnings season now, with several big banks reporting Q2 already this week. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the market's trajectory for the rest of the summer.
The market was expecting the news, and I think already reacted a few days ago. The talking heads are trying to get in step with the lady at the White House, saying that the CPI does not include food, fuel, and perhaps other items whose prices are dropping now.

Some of the finance ETFs and others are waiting to see what the Fed does next. My guy says XLF may be near its bottom, but may go as low as 28, depending on the Fed.

I think I'm done with NVDA, unless it gets to 140 I may be tempted. The big hitters have really been moving the price up and down, although the guy leading a live webinar I listened to yesterday on Fidelity complained that he got "smashed" by NVDA, and referred to it as a dog. So, I guess that's at least some consolation for me and my shares that I bought at 220, that a pro at Fidelity got burned too.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 09:42
Del wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 06:59 Stock market accepted the bad inflation news just like they were expecting it.

We are entering earnings season now, with several big banks reporting Q2 already this week. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the market's trajectory for the rest of the summer.
The market was expecting the news, and I think already reacted a few days ago. The talking heads are trying to get in step with the lady at the White House, saying that the CPI does not include food, fuel, and perhaps other items whose prices are dropping now.

Some of the finance ETFs and others are waiting to see what the Fed does next. My guy says XLF may be near its bottom, but may go as low as 28, depending on the Fed.

I think I'm done with NVDA, unless it gets to 140 I may be tempted. The big hitters have really been moving the price up and down, although the guy leading a live webinar I listened to yesterday on Fidelity complained that he got "smashed" by NVDA, and referred to it as a dog. So, I guess that's at least some consolation for me and my shares that I bought at 220, that a pro at Fidelity got burned too.
The "headline inflation" of 9.1% includes food and energy. The "Core Inflation" excludes those volatile components. Karen Gene-Parrot at the White House is repeating Biden's meme that gas has come down 40 cents (still above $4 everywhere), and June's data doesn't reflect that yet. Small comfort. Food prices haven't caught up to this year's fuel and fertilizer price hikes yet. Groceries have a lot of scary inflation to tell us in coming months.
=======================================================

NVDA is one of the S&P500. It has traded a bit stronger than the S&P (not quite as low on the lows, a bit higher on the highs), but mostly it just tracks the index. When playing single stocks, it is still vital to keep an eye on the broader indexes and the overall economy.

The biggest issue for the next three years is this: How deep will the recession get? And when will it turn around?

Fortunately we can all see that this is caused by an artificial worldwide energy shortage caused America's clampdown on fossil fuels. It usually isn't this simple to diagnose and keep watch.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 10:11
sweetandsour wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 09:42
Del wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 06:59 Stock market accepted the bad inflation news just like they were expecting it.

We are entering earnings season now, with several big banks reporting Q2 already this week. The next few weeks will tell us a lot about the market's trajectory for the rest of the summer.
The market was expecting the news, and I think already reacted a few days ago. The talking heads are trying to get in step with the lady at the White House, saying that the CPI does not include food, fuel, and perhaps other items whose prices are dropping now.

Some of the finance ETFs and others are waiting to see what the Fed does next. My guy says XLF may be near its bottom, but may go as low as 28, depending on the Fed.

I think I'm done with NVDA, unless it gets to 140 I may be tempted. The big hitters have really been moving the price up and down, although the guy leading a live webinar I listened to yesterday on Fidelity complained that he got "smashed" by NVDA, and referred to it as a dog. So, I guess that's at least some consolation for me and my shares that I bought at 220, that a pro at Fidelity got burned too.
The "headline inflation" of 9.1% includes food and energy. The "Core Inflation" excludes those volatile components. Karen Gene-Parrot at the White House is repeating Biden's meme that gas has come down 40 cents (still above $4 everywhere), and June's data doesn't reflect that yet. Small comfort. Food prices haven't caught up to this year's fuel and fertilizer price hikes yet. Groceries have a lot of scary inflation to tell us in coming months.
=======================================================

NVDA is one of the S&P500. It has traded a bit stronger than the S&P (not quite as low on the lows, a bit higher on the highs), but mostly it just tracks the index. When playing single stocks, it is still vital to keep an eye on the broader indexes and the overall economy.

The biggest issue for the next three years is this: How deep will the recession get? And when will it turn around?

Fortunately we can all see that this is caused by an artificial worldwide energy shortage caused America's clampdown on fossil fuels. It usually isn't this simple to diagnose and keep watch.
Hopefully we won't see "Jimmy Carter inflation". We lived through those days, my wife and I and 3 small children. But they were some tough times.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 03:28
Del wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 10:11
sweetandsour wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 09:42

The market was expecting the news, and I think already reacted a few days ago. The talking heads are trying to get in step with the lady at the White House, saying that the CPI does not include food, fuel, and perhaps other items whose prices are dropping now.

Some of the finance ETFs and others are waiting to see what the Fed does next. My guy says XLF may be near its bottom, but may go as low as 28, depending on the Fed.

I think I'm done with NVDA, unless it gets to 140 I may be tempted. The big hitters have really been moving the price up and down, although the guy leading a live webinar I listened to yesterday on Fidelity complained that he got "smashed" by NVDA, and referred to it as a dog. So, I guess that's at least some consolation for me and my shares that I bought at 220, that a pro at Fidelity got burned too.
The "headline inflation" of 9.1% includes food and energy. The "Core Inflation" excludes those volatile components. Karen Gene-Parrot at the White House is repeating Biden's meme that gas has come down 40 cents (still above $4 everywhere), and June's data doesn't reflect that yet. Small comfort. Food prices haven't caught up to this year's fuel and fertilizer price hikes yet. Groceries have a lot of scary inflation to tell us in coming months.
=======================================================

NVDA is one of the S&P500. It has traded a bit stronger than the S&P (not quite as low on the lows, a bit higher on the highs), but mostly it just tracks the index. When playing single stocks, it is still vital to keep an eye on the broader indexes and the overall economy.

The biggest issue for the next three years is this: How deep will the recession get? And when will it turn around?

Fortunately we can all see that this is caused by an artificial worldwide energy shortage caused America's clampdown on fossil fuels. It usually isn't this simple to diagnose and keep watch.
Hopefully we won't see "Jimmy Carter inflation". We lived through those days, my wife and I and 3 small children. But they were some tough times.
Poor Jimmy Carter. It wasn't his fault, but he gets all the blame. Inflation was raging for years already before he was elected. We were really suffering after that, and Mr. Carter got associated with it.

That inflation was triggered by Nixon's departure from the gold standard in 1971 -- fixed one problem, caused another.
(We should not return to the gold standard, lest we rediscover why we left it.)

At the moment, world markets are holding desperately to the hope that America will come to the rescue once again -- by electing politicians who will restore supply to the energy markets.

If we fail to accomplish this, there will be world-wide economic devastation. Or if Russia and/or China invade some more nations during the West's weakness. Scary times.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 06:43
sweetandsour wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 03:28
Del wrote: 13 Jul 2022, 10:11

The "headline inflation" of 9.1% includes food and energy. The "Core Inflation" excludes those volatile components. Karen Gene-Parrot at the White House is repeating Biden's meme that gas has come down 40 cents (still above $4 everywhere), and June's data doesn't reflect that yet. Small comfort. Food prices haven't caught up to this year's fuel and fertilizer price hikes yet. Groceries have a lot of scary inflation to tell us in coming months.
=======================================================

NVDA is one of the S&P500. It has traded a bit stronger than the S&P (not quite as low on the lows, a bit higher on the highs), but mostly it just tracks the index. When playing single stocks, it is still vital to keep an eye on the broader indexes and the overall economy.

The biggest issue for the next three years is this: How deep will the recession get? And when will it turn around?

Fortunately we can all see that this is caused by an artificial worldwide energy shortage caused America's clampdown on fossil fuels. It usually isn't this simple to diagnose and keep watch.
Hopefully we won't see "Jimmy Carter inflation". We lived through those days, my wife and I and 3 small children. But they were some tough times.
Poor Jimmy Carter. It wasn't his fault, but he gets all the blame. Inflation was raging for years already before he was elected. We were really suffering after that, and Mr. Carter got associated with it.

That inflation was triggered by Nixon's departure from the gold standard in 1971 -- fixed one problem, caused another.
(We should not return to the gold standard, lest we rediscover why we left it.)

At the moment, world markets are holding desperately to the hope that America will come to the rescue once again -- by electing politicians who will restore supply to the energy markets.

If we fail to accomplish this, there will be world-wide economic devastation. Or if Russia and/or China invade some more nations during the West's weakness. Scary times.
Ok, so which stock or etf are you watching this week?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 02:39
Del wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 06:43
sweetandsour wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 03:28

Hopefully we won't see "Jimmy Carter inflation". We lived through those days, my wife and I and 3 small children. But they were some tough times.
Poor Jimmy Carter. It wasn't his fault, but he gets all the blame. Inflation was raging for years already before he was elected. We were really suffering after that, and Mr. Carter got associated with it.

That inflation was triggered by Nixon's departure from the gold standard in 1971 -- fixed one problem, caused another.
(We should not return to the gold standard, lest we rediscover why we left it.)

At the moment, world markets are holding desperately to the hope that America will come to the rescue once again -- by electing politicians who will restore supply to the energy markets.

If we fail to accomplish this, there will be world-wide economic devastation. Or if Russia and/or China invade some more nations during the West's weakness. Scary times.
Ok, so which stock or etf are you watching this week?
I found some great premium on my old friend, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). I have an iron condor that expires on Wednesday, and it is behaving well.

Mr. Market was not spooked by the latest high inflation being a bit higher than expected. Nor did Mr. Market react to rumors from the Fed's voting members that they might want to raise rates by a full point next week. It looks like all the bad news is priced in already, and this current slump has hit bottom. Mr. Market is looking for a direction, something big to change one way or the other.

I don't even think the GDP news will trigger much. Market expects a small bit of growth or contraction, basically flat economy.

All eyes are on corporate earnings now. Mr. Market sure woke up in a good mood this Monday morning.
=========================================

I'm watching NVDA for you. Nancy's husband just exercised a bunch call options, so now he's holding NVDA for more growth from here.* And there's some legislation in Congress to subsidize chip manufacturers to ease our vital chip shortages.

For an investor who doesn't think the recession will be too long or deep, and who is looking for a stock to accumulate and hold -- NVDA looks pretty good right now. It's trading at 163 and rising in pre-market this morning.


* Paul Pelosi bought 200 call options at $100 strike one year ago. He was forced to take action on them at their expiration on 6/17/22. So this wasn't "insider trading," no matter what the right-wing media says.

All the same, Pelosi is an insider. He could have cashed out (a bearish outlook) or exercised to purchase and hold (bullish outlook). He chose to buy and hold. The congressional subsidy legislation is public knowledge.

I did some estimations based the news report (not likely accurate, but still a fun exercise). Paul Pelosi lost money on this deal. He should break even when NVDA gets back up to 190 or so.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 06:05
sweetandsour wrote: 18 Jul 2022, 02:39
Del wrote: 14 Jul 2022, 06:43

Poor Jimmy Carter. It wasn't his fault, but he gets all the blame. Inflation was raging for years already before he was elected. We were really suffering after that, and Mr. Carter got associated with it.

That inflation was triggered by Nixon's departure from the gold standard in 1971 -- fixed one problem, caused another.
(We should not return to the gold standard, lest we rediscover why we left it.)

At the moment, world markets are holding desperately to the hope that America will come to the rescue once again -- by electing politicians who will restore supply to the energy markets.

If we fail to accomplish this, there will be world-wide economic devastation. Or if Russia and/or China invade some more nations during the West's weakness. Scary times.
Ok, so which stock or etf are you watching this week?
I found some great premium on my old friend, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT). I have an iron condor that expires on Wednesday, and it is behaving well.

Mr. Market was not spooked by the latest high inflation being a bit higher than expected. Nor did Mr. Market react to rumors from the Fed's voting members that they might want to raise rates by a full point next week. It looks like all the bad news is priced in already, and this current slump has hit bottom. Mr. Market is looking for a direction, something big to change one way or the other.

I don't even think the GDP news will trigger much. Market expects a small bit of growth or contraction, basically flat economy.

All eyes are on corporate earnings now. Mr. Market sure woke up in a good mood this Monday morning.
=========================================

I'm watching NVDA for you. Nancy's husband just exercised a bunch call options, so now he's holding NVDA for more growth from here.* And there's some legislation in Congress to subsidize chip manufacturers to ease our vital chip shortages.

For an investor who doesn't think the recession will be too long or deep, and who is looking for a stock to accumulate and hold -- NVDA looks pretty good right now. It's trading at 163 and rising in pre-market this morning.


* Paul Pelosi bought 200 call options at $100 strike one year ago. He was forced to take action on them at their expiration on 6/17/22. So this wasn't "insider trading," no matter what the right-wing media says.

All the same, Pelosi is an insider. He could have cashed out (a bearish outlook) or exercised to purchase and hold (bullish outlook). He chose to buy and hold. The congressional subsidy legislation is public knowledge.

I did some estimations based the news report (not likely accurate, but still a fun exercise). Paul Pelosi lost money on this deal. He should break even when NVDA gets back up to 190 or so.
Yeah, Mr Market isn't cooperating lately for someone wanting a little more daily volatility. I should have bought NVDA at 145, but it didn't stay there long enough for me to get on it. It promptly went to 156 and stayed there for a week, but I had just sold shares that I previously bought at 156. So, now it's sitting at 166. I'm almost tempted to just buy SPY and let it sit there until I find another stock to try to time on a daily basis.
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