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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote:Ping!
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Watch:

WTI has dropped below $70 this morning.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#WTI-Crude

This is surprising, as US crude oil inventories are also dropping. I don't like what this is telling us.

Lots of granular data here, but I'm not familiar enough with weekly fluctuations to tell if this is normal or significant:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... cline.html

Oil continues to trickle out of the SPR. Each reported decline sets a new 40-year low:
https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

In theory, Joe has another opportunity to start buying back some of that Emergency Release inventory (the "emergency" was a risk that Democrats would lose badly in the midterm elections).

I don't know if he needs permission from Congress or whatever, but there is no money available until his Debt Limit Crisis is resolved.

I'm with Speaker McCarthy -- We need to roll back Biden's bogus "Inflation Reduction Act" and replace it with something like an "Avoiding a Global Economic Catastrophe Act."

XLE might recover when all of that is resolved.
========================================

FED rate announces this afternoon. Hold onto your butts.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 03 May 2023, 05:47
sweetandsour wrote:Ping!
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Watch:

WTI has dropped below $70 this morning.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#WTI-Crude

This is surprising, as US crude oil inventories are also dropping. I don't like what this is telling us.

Lots of granular data here, but I'm not familiar enough with weekly fluctuations to tell if this is normal or significant:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... cline.html

Oil continues to trickle out of the SPR. Each reported decline sets a new 40-year low:
https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

In theory, Joe has another opportunity to start buying back some of that Emergency Release inventory (the "emergency" was a risk that Democrats would lose badly in the midterm elections).

I don't know if he needs permission from Congress or whatever, but there is no money available until his Debt Limit Crisis is resolved.

I'm with Speaker McCarthy -- We need to roll back Biden's bogus "Inflation Reduction Act" and replace it with something like an "Avoiding a Global Economic Catastrophe Act."

XLE might recover when all of that is resolved.
========================================

FED rate announces this afternoon. Hold onto your butts.
I saw XLE dropping, along with my AMD, which is at 83 this morning. I'm really beating myself up for not pulling the plug on this when it was at 99. I'll set it if I can offset it somehow.

Per API reports, crude inventories fell more than expected last week, and middle distillates inventories fell, but gasoline inventories increased by 400,000 barrels. So, I suppose one can read anything they want into that.

These are scary times, economically and otherwise.
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Post by Del »

The Federal Reserve Board presser starts in 5 minutes.

I am poised to withstand a moderate drop, and I could benefit from a healthy surge. We'll see what happens.
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Post by Del »

Phew! What a roller coaster!

SPX (4090 at close) is too near the floor of my condor (4075) that expires on Friday. I need some calmer heads to scoop up some bargains and push the index back up a bit. (I set this contract a month ago.)

I set up a new condor for next Wednesday on RUT -- in the late afternoon, when the volatility was high and the premium was awesome. If my SPX holds on, I will be a happy trader.

I need oil to recover and XLE to edge back up over 80.5 by next Friday (May 12). I have a couple of short puts at 80.5 that I would rather not get assigned. But as long as XLE doesn't drop any farther, I'll be okay.
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Post by Del »

After-market trading & futures.... so far, so not good.

Oh well, I can't do anything about it until morning anyway.
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Post by sweetandsour »

I may put in a limit buy order at 79 for AMD, but it likely won't get below 81. I'm tempted to buy XLE at 79 also. But first things first, this morning, is the Thursday golf game.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 04 May 2023, 03:43 I may put in a limit buy order at 79 for AMD, but it likely won't get below 81. I'm tempted to buy XLE at 79 also. But first things first, this morning, is the Thursday golf game.
Here's a trick for buying near the lowest price: Wait until after it completes a relative swing low in an upward trend. Buy when it starts to moving up.

But in this case: This is panic selling after some big news (although long expected and not surprising). The Fed is still watching inflation data before they decide what to do next. Jeez. Market should recover quickly.

But the trend is mostly flat, with jitters about the debt limit. So keep your position small and your target within range.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 04 May 2023, 05:21
sweetandsour wrote: 04 May 2023, 03:43 I may put in a limit buy order at 79 for AMD, but it likely won't get below 81. I'm tempted to buy XLE at 79 also. But first things first, this morning, is the Thursday golf game.
Here's a trick for buying near the lowest price: Wait until after it completes a relative swing low in an upward trend. Buy when it starts to moving up.

But in this case: This is panic selling after some big news (although long expected and not surprising). The Fed is still watching inflation data before they decide what to do next. Jeez. Market should recover quickly.

But the trend is mostly flat, with jitters about the debt limit. So keep your position small and your target within range.
I was on the golf course this morning while AMD went from 81 to 89. I forget sometimes that I'm retired. Anyway I said 79 arbitrarily, even when 81 appeared to be support. It'll be back down again. Otherwise my powder is dry.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 04 May 2023, 11:46 I was on the golf course this morning while AMD went from 81 to 89. I forget sometimes that I'm retired. Anyway I said 79 arbitrarily, even when 81 appeared to be support. It'll be back down again. Otherwise my powder is dry.
SPX has spent all day hovering below my border at 4075. Nerve-wracking, as I have avoided making any expensive defensive adjustments. I am making a large bet that SPX will behave overnight and display a white candle tomorrow.

Apple reports earnings after the close today.
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Post by Del »

Del wrote: 04 May 2023, 12:05
sweetandsour wrote: 04 May 2023, 11:46 I was on the golf course this morning while AMD went from 81 to 89. I forget sometimes that I'm retired. Anyway I said 79 arbitrarily, even when 81 appeared to be support. It'll be back down again. Otherwise my powder is dry.
SPX has spent all day hovering below my border at 4075. Nerve-wracking, as I have avoided making any expensive defensive adjustments. I am making a large bet that SPX will behave overnight and display a white candle tomorrow.

Apple reports earnings after the close today.
Today is starting off well. SPX futures were pleased with earnings last night.... Apple exceeded the market's low expectations.
There was a bit of a flash-crash at 7:30 am as the latest employment data were released. Wages up, employment up, unemployment down more than expected.... triggering fears that the FED might keep raising rates or something. But then someone realized that this means we are not quite in a recession yet, and the market recovered quickly. And maybe some favorable earnings news hit the market as well.

Anyhow, market should open with SPX a solid 20 points within bounds of my condor. I just hope it goes up from there by the end of the day.

WTI and XLE are are both up overnight. XLE looks to open near 79.75
I kinda need XLE to close in the vicinity of 80.5 or higher by next Friday.
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