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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 12 Mar 2023, 18:06
Del wrote: 11 Mar 2023, 13:41
gaining_age wrote: 11 Mar 2023, 12:44 SVB closed it's doors... (or the fed did it for them)
The day after crypto bank Silvergate failed. Clobbered the market.
You watching the news this weekend? All depositors at SVB will be made whole? https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 30312b.htm


I just read on another forum that SPX futures are up 1% +.
FDIC insures most bank deposits, but I gather that the whole deal is more complicated than that.

Meanwhile, I am watching futures. I expect (and desperately need) for RUT to move back up into my condor range. Tomorrow (Monday) looks pretty good.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 12 Mar 2023, 22:30
sweetandsour wrote: 12 Mar 2023, 18:06
Del wrote: 11 Mar 2023, 13:41

The day after crypto bank Silvergate failed. Clobbered the market.
You watching the news this weekend? All depositors at SVB will be made whole? https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 30312b.htm


I just read on another forum that SPX futures are up 1% +.
FDIC insures most bank deposits, but I gather that the whole deal is more complicated than that.

Meanwhile, I am watching futures. I expect (and desperately need) for RUT to move back up into my condor range. Tomorrow (Monday) looks pretty good.
Re FDIC, they only cover 100K, right? This is another bailout of sorts, since there are lots of reportedly uninsured money there. "White knight", it's being called.

Anyway, re the market, there was an early burst, but that has apparently gone away so far. There will be some opportunities. Such as gold or silver perhaps, both are rising this morning.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 13 Mar 2023, 06:22
Del wrote: 12 Mar 2023, 22:30
sweetandsour wrote: 12 Mar 2023, 18:06

You watching the news this weekend? All depositors at SVB will be made whole? https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 30312b.htm


I just read on another forum that SPX futures are up 1% +.
FDIC insures most bank deposits, but I gather that the whole deal is more complicated than that.

Meanwhile, I am watching futures. I expect (and desperately need) for RUT to move back up into my condor range. Tomorrow (Monday) looks pretty good.
Re FDIC, they only cover 100K, right? This is another bailout of sorts, since there are lots of reportedly uninsured money there. "White knight", it's being called.

Anyway, re the market, there was an early burst, but that has apparently gone away so far. There will be some opportunities. Such as gold or silver perhaps, both are rising this morning.
No time to play.... I've been very busy this first hour of trading, rolling all of my condors out of trouble (rolling puts down) and taking some profits where I can to ease the pain (rolling calls down). I had to give back a net $3200 this morning. I had to give back $2300 on Friday. And XLE is below my basis.

I've lost half my profits for the year. (On the other hand, I still have profits for the year.)
===============================
XLE has gotten sucked into the market blood bath caused by the threats of more bank failures / inflationary bank bailouts. Not to mention the looming government shutdown over the federal budget and debt ceiling. And how the Fed is going to react to all of this next week when they gather for rate-setting policy. "When the paddy wagon pulls up to the whorehouse, everybody goes.... even the piano player."

Hmmm... as I was typing this, Mr. Market seems to have noticed that our stodgy energy sector isn't affected by the failure of crypto banks. There's a lot of volume flowing in to oil stocks.

As I posted last week.... I committed to lash myself to the spars and ride this out. Now I have to endure the waves.
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Post by Del »

Bulls have chased the bears away, for now. Tech is the strongest sector today.

Latest CPI info will break in the morning.

Chaos still reigns. Even VIX can't find a level of rest.
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Post by Del »

I have to confess: In all my saving and investing plans for the year, I failed to make any provision for another Democrat-induced meltdown of the banking industry.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 06:37 I have to confess: In all my saving and investing plans for the year, I failed to make any provision for another Democrat-induced meltdown of the banking industry.
I'm feeling bad for you. WTI is the lowest price in a couple of years, and oil is still being shipped from the US SPRs. Analysts this morning say that XLE may be headed back to ~68; and I'm thinking of selling what I have now then buy back at 68. Meanwhile I bought gold (GLD) at 176 on Monday, and may sell if it gets to ~180 to offset the loss from my XLE bailout.

The bank bailouts really p_ss me off royally. It's indeed politics at it's worst, except for what Sid mentioned about the train wreck in Greece.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 07:13
Del wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 06:37 I have to confess: In all my saving and investing plans for the year, I failed to make any provision for another Democrat-induced meltdown of the banking industry.
I'm feeling bad for you. WTI is the lowest price in a couple of years, and oil is still being shipped from the US SPRs. Analysts this morning say that XLE may be headed back to ~68; and I'm thinking of selling what I have now then buy back at 68. Meanwhile I bought gold (GLD) at 176 on Monday, and may sell if it gets to ~180 to offset the loss from my XLE bailout.

The bank bailouts really p_ss me off royally. It's indeed politics at it's worst, except for what Sid mentioned about the train wreck in Greece.
I don't know how I feel about the bank "bailouts." I don't have enough grasp of the facts to even opine about it. I am generally opposed, but I don't want to see another world-wide crash like 1929 either. There are fierce downside risks to NOT bailing out depositors. We have to pay for it, either way.

Basically, Biden's huge dump of worthless cash into the economy (increasing the money supply by 35%), along with his incredibly stupid energy policies, have and will cause numerous crises.... from Ukraine to inflation to bank failures to what's next. And we are left debating how to deal with the pain.
============================

I will likely unload my excess XLE soon. I will investigate buying some puts. Maybe both.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 07:13 oil is still being shipped from the US SPRs
This chart indicates that Biden closed the spigot on Jan 6, 2023.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_endin ... um_reserve

Nothing has been added to or taken away from Strategic Petroleum Reserve since then.

Biden once said that he would start buying back oil when market price dropped below $80/barrel, but I'm sure he has long since forgotten about it.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 11:41
sweetandsour wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 07:13 oil is still being shipped from the US SPRs
This chart indicates that Biden closed the spigot on Jan 6, 2023.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_endin ... um_reserve

Nothing has been added to or taken away from Strategic Petroleum Reserve since then.

Biden once said that he would start buying back oil when market price dropped below $80/barrel, but I'm sure he has long since forgotten about it.
The SPR that my grandson works at has been shipping oil somewhere this week. I have no chart, just the word of my grandson, presuming that I heard him correctly. It wasn't long ago I was reading somewhere that the current inventory was the lowest since "whenever", I don't recall the reference.
Another grandson told me yesterday that Biden had signed off on Project Willow for drilling the Alaskan North Slope, which would benefit COP. But today I saw that environmental groups have already filed a lawsuit to prevent that from happening. Again, no reference, but I'm sure it can be easily Googled.
Anyway, regarding energy stocks and ETFs, I think with everything going on, they will whipsaw back up. Or maybe not, who knows?
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 17:27
Del wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 11:41
sweetandsour wrote: 15 Mar 2023, 07:13 oil is still being shipped from the US SPRs
This chart indicates that Biden closed the spigot on Jan 6, 2023.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_endin ... um_reserve

Nothing has been added to or taken away from Strategic Petroleum Reserve since then.

Biden once said that he would start buying back oil when market price dropped below $80/barrel, but I'm sure he has long since forgotten about it.
The SPR that my grandson works at has been shipping oil somewhere this week. I have no chart, just the word of my grandson, presuming that I heard him correctly. It wasn't long ago I was reading somewhere that the current inventory was the lowest since "whenever", I don't recall the reference.
Another grandson told me yesterday that Biden had signed off on Project Willow for drilling the Alaskan North Slope, which would benefit COP. But today I saw that environmental groups have already filed a lawsuit to prevent that from happening. Again, no reference, but I'm sure it can be easily Googled.
Anyway, regarding energy stocks and ETFs, I think with everything going on, they will whipsaw back up. Or maybe not, who knows?
That's what I was afraid you might tell me.

It could be that they are just consolidating SPR inventories -- several full tanks and many empty ones. It could be that they routinely rotate in fresh oil and sell old oil to refineries, maintaining a flat reserve. It could be that the oil was sold months ago for March delivery, and the charts are book inventory (not physical inventory).

Or it could just be shenanigans.

Easily googled Willow.....
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics ... index.html

Biden's Interior Sec is a major progressive greenie, but Biden over-ruled her. CON paid for lease rights to this field, now claiming that Biden cannot legally deny them. Alaskans insist that they have been severely impoverished by the sudden loss of so many jobs under Biden policy. CNN is pressing the gas on their climate alarmism angle.
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