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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 22 Nov 2022, 09:37 ping
Grrr.... the surge in the final minutes of trading today caused me to bust my condor without any time to adjust.

I had to give back half of what I made this month. My end-of-November review isn't going to be nearly as much fun.

RUT will probably pull back a few points in the morning, but it will be too late.
What part of "HOC EST ENIM CORPUS MEUM" do you not understand?
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Post by Del »

It's the end of the month again. Time to review.

Balance and performance:
My trading account started year at $23,500. Currently $36,000 net value. $12,500 gain YTD. 53% return YTD.

End of October: $32,500. $3500 gain. It was a lot higher... but I had to give back $3950 in the final minutes of trading on Nov. 30, as a final surge in RUT broke out of my condor.

XLE: I have 200 shares and long options (June) equivalent to 114 shares. Currently trading at 91.7. Current value = $20,360. Basis = $18130. Gain = $2230. 12.3%
I am short Dec 16 put at strike 90. If assigned, my net basis will be 87.10.
Covered calls Dec 16 at 99.

Gurus predict oil prices will fall more in December before they rise again.


Iron Condors on Russell 2000 Index (RUT)

Week ending; profit/loss
7/6 $693
7/13 $1194
7/20 $1073
7/27 $-1614 Total July: $1346
8/3 $1071
8/10 $1328
8/17 $934
8/24 $80
8/31 $1405 Total August: $3413
9/7 $-298
9/14 $-2054
9/21 $867
9/28 $507 Total September: $-987
10/5 $436
10/12 Vacation week. No trades. But I got to see coco in Alabama!
10/19 $1187
10/26 $-371 Total October: $1252
11/2 $1790
11/9 $1115
11/16 Vacation week. No trades.
11/23 $2050
11/30 $-2780 Total October: $3111

Iron Condor on S&P500 (SPX)
Just for fun, I put a wide month-long condor on SPX. Expires Dec 16.
$4000 at risk. Received $800 premium -- about twice what I should expect for 10% ITM risk.

Upper boundary is SPX 4250 on Dec. 16. As of Dec 1, SPX is at 4100 (following the Nov. 30 surge on Fed comments about slowing rate hikes)
Lower boundary was 3700.
On Dec 1, I rolled the puts up for more cash. $320 premium. New lower boundary is 3850. (Total premium $1120)
Last edited by Del on 02 Dec 2022, 08:07, edited 3 times in total.
What part of "HOC EST ENIM CORPUS MEUM" do you not understand?
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Post by sweetandsour »

SPX (and SPY) took off like a rocket yesterday, even before Powell began speaking. I stayed on the sideline and watched, just like I did for most of November for various reasons, mostly time constraints. Still, my account is up 3% YTD, including ~$50 in fees that I paid Fidelity earlier in the year.

I'm still keeping my powder dry, looking for some December deals.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:06 SPX (and SPY) took off like a rocket yesterday, even before Powell began speaking. I stayed on the sideline and watched, just like I did for most of November for various reasons, mostly time constraints. Still, my account is up 3% YTD, including ~$50 in fees that I paid Fidelity earlier in the year.

I'm still keeping my powder dry, looking for some December deals.
I heard one analyst predicting buying opportunities for oil (and thus XLE) will appear in December.

These guys get paid to say stuff every day, so they say stuff. I put limited faith in their reporting. But the fundamentals for oil do indicate an increase in supply, short-term, until the cold of winter increases demand. I will likely pick up another 100 shares of XLE.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:32
sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:06 SPX (and SPY) took off like a rocket yesterday, even before Powell began speaking. I stayed on the sideline and watched, just like I did for most of November for various reasons, mostly time constraints. Still, my account is up 3% YTD, including ~$50 in fees that I paid Fidelity earlier in the year.

I'm still keeping my powder dry, looking for some December deals.
I heard one analyst predicting buying opportunities for oil (and thus XLE) will appear in December.

These guys get paid to say stuff every day, so they say stuff. I put limited faith in their reporting. But the fundamentals for oil do indicate an increase in supply, short-term, until the cold of winter increases demand. I will likely pick up another 100 shares of XLE.
When I tire or don't have time for trading, I should just put everything into XLE. It pays a decent dividend and for the past couple of months it almost never moves when all else is volatile. It's ranged from ~89 to 94, and right now is ~91. I bought and sold it for ~$5/share a couple of months ago, plus earned the dividend, so it's definitely something to watch.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:55
Del wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:32
sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:06 SPX (and SPY) took off like a rocket yesterday, even before Powell began speaking. I stayed on the sideline and watched, just like I did for most of November for various reasons, mostly time constraints. Still, my account is up 3% YTD, including ~$50 in fees that I paid Fidelity earlier in the year.

I'm still keeping my powder dry, looking for some December deals.
I heard one analyst predicting buying opportunities for oil (and thus XLE) will appear in December.

These guys get paid to say stuff every day, so they say stuff. I put limited faith in their reporting. But the fundamentals for oil do indicate an increase in supply, short-term, until the cold of winter increases demand. I will likely pick up another 100 shares of XLE.
When I tire or don't have time for trading, I should just put everything into XLE. It pays a decent dividend and for the past couple of months it almost never moves when all else is volatile. It's ranged from ~89 to 94, and right now is ~91. I bought and sold it for ~$5/share a couple of months ago, plus earned the dividend, so it's definitely something to watch.
I expected XLE would punch above 95 in December, but global oil prices don't look to go back to 100 anytime soon. But it's holding strong support above 89, so I can afford to be patient.

I sold a put at strike 95... I rolled that down to a more defensive 90 last week. I made $300 selling and buying the put.... so if I get assigned at 90, it will be equivalent to buying at 87. We'll see how it's trading on Dec. 16.
What part of "HOC EST ENIM CORPUS MEUM" do you not understand?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:55ping
Inflation numbers not looking too bad this morning. Slightly less than expected, even.

Mr. Market is very pleased in pre-market trading.

We'll see what tomorrow's FED rates and comments bring.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 Dec 2022, 06:02
sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:55ping
Inflation numbers not looking too bad this morning. Slightly less than expected, even.

Mr. Market is very pleased in pre-market trading.

We'll see what tomorrow's FED rates and comments bring.
The after hours trading really hacks me off, generally. Pre-market too sometimes.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 13 Dec 2022, 07:51
Del wrote: 13 Dec 2022, 06:02
sweetandsour wrote: 01 Dec 2022, 08:55ping
Inflation numbers not looking too bad this morning. Slightly less than expected, even.

Mr. Market is very pleased in pre-market trading.

We'll see what tomorrow's FED rates and comments bring.
The after hours trading really hacks me off, generally. Pre-market too sometimes.
Really? Don't take it personally.

Late market trading is often low-volume, so it doesn't tell us as much as regular trades. But sometimes the night trades tell us that something is happening in foreign markets (Europe, Asia) which will move the opening prices in America.

A lot of American economic news drops an hour before the markets open.

Our problem is that Mr. Market is bipolar and off his meds. The inflation news was good, and rational investors said BUY. The opening price gapped up nicely, and indexes traded up.

But 30 minutes into the trading day, the panicky investors started taking profits. At 10:30, Indexes are trading below opening.... but still higher than yesterday's close. All the same, I didn't expect to see a dark candle after this morning's opening.

Tomorrow (Wed).... Fed press conference in the afternoon. Expect some serious volatility in the late afternoon as investors jump on every comment. Hopefully the Fed will talk about easing up on interest rate hikes as inflation appears to be cooling.

XLE is holding it opening price gap (YAY!). Tech sector is leading today's drop.
What part of "HOC EST ENIM CORPUS MEUM" do you not understand?
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 13 Dec 2022, 08:37
sweetandsour wrote: 13 Dec 2022, 07:51
Del wrote: 13 Dec 2022, 06:02

Inflation numbers not looking too bad this morning. Slightly less than expected, even.

Mr. Market is very pleased in pre-market trading.

We'll see what tomorrow's FED rates and comments bring.
The after hours trading really hacks me off, generally. Pre-market too sometimes.
Really? Don't take it personally.

Late market trading is often low-volume, so it doesn't tell us as much as regular trades. But sometimes the night trades tell us that something is happening in foreign markets (Europe, Asia) which will move the opening prices in America.

A lot of American economic news drops an hour before the markets open.

Our problem is that Mr. Market is bipolar and off his meds. The inflation news was good, and rational investors said BUY. The opening price gapped up nicely, and indexes traded up.

But 30 minutes into the trading day, the panicky investors started taking profits. At 10:30, Indexes are trading below opening.... but still higher than yesterday's close. All the same, I didn't expect to see a dark candle after this morning's opening.

Tomorrow (Wed).... Fed press conference in the afternoon. Expect some serious volatility in the late afternoon as investors jump on every comment. Hopefully the Fed will talk about easing up on interest rate hikes as inflation appears to be cooling.

XLE is holding it opening price gap (YAY!). Tech sector is leading today's drop.
"Gap and crap", the Fidelity guy says this morning. SPY has pretty much given everything back already this morning. We'll see tmorw if the Fed spoils any December rally, or "market Santa", traditionally the last week of the year + first two days of Jan.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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