Stock Trading

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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 05 Jun 2023, 16:14 I was watching Chevron today, which opened at 158 and closed at 155. They're buying PDC Energy, and also are buying back stock, and raising their dividend.
"Increasing shareholder value."

They have one job! That's what I hired them to do.
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I got my first dividend from JEPI today! $78.

I like dividends.

XLE trades Ex-Div on 6/21. Payout 6/26.
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Post by Del »

10:30 am: real time panic!

What's happening? SPX is sporting a cute and quiet little doji. RUT is going on a feakin' ZOOM.

Premarket was quiet. Some kind of news just broke, and I need to know what it is. Do I need to roll my condor calls out of trouble?
=======================

11:00: I can't sort this out.

Regional banks are leading the American small- and mid-cap rally. Big bank stocks are taking a hit on rumors that regulators might require Big Boys to increase their capital stocks, I suppose to avoid risks of another 2008-style "Too Big to Fail" scenario. Maybe bank investors are rolling into smaller cap banks?

Yet one report says that "bonds are down," and falling bond prices (due to rising interest rates) are the whole reason why regional banks were failing in the first place.

Makes no sense yet.

WTI is recovering sharply from yesterday's decline. XLE is volatile but behaving well enough. XLE gapped up on Friday, and is holding that level after a few days of wild trading. I don't think energy or tech is driving the surge in RUT.

I can't suss it. My gut says that RUT will sober up and drop down to normal by tomorrow afternoon when my contracts expire. But I want info than just a gut feeling, and it's weird that nothing is making headlines.
=======================

11:45: I give up. I reckon that no news means no news, and there's just vapor buoying up the index.

It's already starting to fall back into range (but still way too close for comfort), and volume is dropping off steadily. I'm going to ride this surge out for a while.
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RUT closed ever-so-slightly in-the-money today. Contracts expire tomorrow.

I need to get the index to close down by 5.5 points or more, please.

I hate to ask, but we gotta get out our stomping boots again tomorrow. Or else I'll be begging at stoplights....
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 06 Jun 2023, 13:09 RUT closed ever-so-slightly in-the-money today. Contracts expire tomorrow.

I need to get the index to close down by 5.5 points or more, please.

I hate to ask, but we gotta get out our stomping boots again tomorrow. Or else I'll be begging at stoplights....
Analysts are seeing a bull market, and bulls currently have the momentum. Prayers your way.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 06 Jun 2023, 13:49
Del wrote: 06 Jun 2023, 13:09 RUT closed ever-so-slightly in-the-money today. Contracts expire tomorrow.

I need to get the index to close down by 5.5 points or more, please.

I hate to ask, but we gotta get out our stomping boots again tomorrow. Or else I'll be begging at stoplights....
Analysts are seeing a bull market, and bulls currently have the momentum. Prayers your way.
My theology on trading:

I feel a bit icky about praying for stock trades. It's kinda like praying on a horse race bet.

I am thankful for the ability that God has given us, and I don't mind praying for wisdom in trades we make. I pray that I do not let emotions interfere with wisdom. But as I discern to enter into a trade, I am mindful that not every trade goes my way.

At this point, it adds a bit to the fun of anthropomorphizing the market. The overall result of thousands of human decisions can be called "Mr. Market." And I don't mind stomping on an index or two when irrational exuberance sets in.

But as thousands of savers are praying for the market to rise up and fund their retirements, I'm not inclined to pray against them.

If I ever really step on the rake and smack my face, I may some supportive prayer then.
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Post by Del »

Here's my Tuesday Night analysis:

Bulls have charged into the small cap meadow. But nowhere else. SPX, oil, & tech did not participate in the rally. Maybe a little bit of action in financial stocks, but not much to speak of.

There's no movement in after-hours trading. There's no big news scheduled for in the morning. American small caps aren't much affected in the middle of the night by action as the foreign markets open.

All the stars point to RUT pulling back and consolidating again, like they did on Monday after Friday's big rally. I'm going to sleep like a baby tonight and see what tomorrow brings.
=========================

Wed morning, pre-opening 8:10 am:

Well, crap. No amount of reason or analysis can overcome irrational exuberance.

Today could set me back a few weeks.

This is why it is so important to keep any trade position size from being too large. Greed leads to disaster.
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Post by Del »

Well, I rolled everything out of the way of the stampede.

Hopefully, today will be like yesterday.... and Mr. Market spends the rest of the day consolidating his new situation. I cannot withstand a second bull charge today.

Final damages: -$9200. I got paid $2400 for the position, so net loss this week's position was -$6800.

Evaluation: This sets me back to where I was 3 weeks ago, when I was rejoicing over my milestone balance of $75K.

I'm still up 36% YTD, just over 5 months into the year. Ain't nobody crying over that.

Time to check out today's WORDLE.
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Post by Del »

I set up my contract for next week, and it was a great win. I needed that....

After yesterday's punch in the face -- and looking at the inflation data and FED meeting coming next week -- I did not want to take any extra risk. So I wanted to make my condor extra wide, but this usually means accepting about half of the normal premium.

So here's what I did: Normally, I sell both sides of the condor at the same time. But this morning, I expected that the index would pull back a bit and try to consolidate some after the surging bull run. Early morning, it looked like Mr. Market had exactly this in mind.

So I sold the upper legs just after the market opened, near its daily high. About an hour later, the index had settled down at a lower level and I sold the lower legs. So I got my usual premium but my legs are farther apart.

The RUT index waved its way back up as a pennant and closed right smack in the middle -- the sweetest spot of all. This is the most beautiful Day 1 risk chart that I have ever seen. All of the premium; and less than half of my normal risk.

I really needed a small win today!

$1285 in premium on $9000 at risk. 14.25% return for one week on this trade. Here's to hoping that nothing too crazy happens next week.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 06 Jun 2023, 13:49ping
Crazy bulls....

Help me read the tea leaves on next week's inflation (CPI) Tuesday and Fed rate Wednesday.

What is the likelihood of another bull charge, this time on SPX? I need some help discerning.
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