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Post by Del »

WTI and XLE are both down again this morning. I am so happy that I closed those puts yesterday morning in the moments when XLE was at its highest!
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Del wrote: 11 May 2023, 07:17 WTI and XLE are both down again this morning. I am so happy that I closed those puts yesterday morning in the moments when XLE was at its highest!
I'm possibly getting interested in XLE again, to buy, if it gets down to 78 or less; maybe at ~75.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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sweetandsour wrote: 12 May 2023, 06:31
Del wrote: 11 May 2023, 07:17 WTI and XLE are both down again this morning. I am so happy that I closed those puts yesterday morning in the moments when XLE was at its highest!
I'm possibly getting interested in XLE again, to buy, if it gets down to 78 or less; maybe at ~75.
XLE appears to be tracking world oil prices (WTI and Brent Crude) pretty closely. The whole world is eyeing the risk of global recession, with a lower global demand for energy.

I'm holding on, but not expecting to make any quick bucks. For now, I am waiting for it to move back up near the top of its trading range, and sell a couple of calls near the money. I wouldn't mind letting go of 200 shares. I should not hold more than 400 shares for my position size.

When I finally sell some XLE, I will looking at buying 100 shares of XLK tech sector index. Just to hold for a while. Tech appears poised to benefit from a year-end run up.

Meanwhile.... I sold some more puts on XLE at 72. 2 puts expire on May 26, and this morning I just sold 2 puts at 72 to expire June 9.

There is firm support at 77.75, and the 3-month low is 75.36, so I expect these will expire out-of-the-money. I will pocket $240.

It didn't work so well with my 80.5 puts that would have expired today, but I didn't lose anything in buying them back earlier this week. Can't win them all.

I have 2 covered calls at 84 expire 5/26. $100 premium. These look pretty safe. Waiting for an opportunity to sell calls for June 9. Likely at 84 again, but we'll see.

I take this as good news:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/12/5-thing ... ay-12.html
President Joe Biden was set to meet Friday with the big four congressional leaders as they try to hammer out an agreement that would lift the debt ceiling and prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt. The sitdown is delayed until early next week, however, as White House and congressional staff work behind the scenes.
I hope this means that they are really working on a compromise solution, and not just playing chicken down the wire.

Biden could give up a lot of excess spending from his budget-busting "Inflation Reduction Act" and still get more than he deserves. And cancel all of the excess "Covid Emergency" cash that wasn't used. So should be able to slow down the train before the wreck, if everyone wants to.
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Post by sweetandsour »

XLE is nearing my purchase point. USO as well, but not as much. If I'm still interested when they get there.
Meanwhile AMD finally breached 100 I see. I don't care, unless it drops back to 82 again. Basically at the moment my trading account is still all in cash, and I'm watching and keeping my powder dry.
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sweetandsour wrote: 16 May 2023, 11:13 XLE is nearing my purchase point. USO as well, but not as much. If I'm still interested when they get there.
Meanwhile AMD finally breached 100 I see. I don't care, unless it drops back to 82 again. Basically at the moment my trading account is still all in cash, and I'm watching and keeping my powder dry.
Are you familiar with the MACD indicator? XLE is far from showing upward momentum. You can afford to wait and see.

The broad market is utterly without direction. Pay attention when something important hits the news and SPX decides to start moving, up or down.
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Thus far, the market is showing no apprehension that Biden might allow a default on America's debt obligations.

McCarthy is in the driver's seat. House Republicans will initiate a reasonable spending cut/debt limit bill, which the Senate must pass and Biden must sign.
=======================================

Help me achieve my current goal. I want to see $75,000 in my trading account by Memorial Day.

To do this, I need XLE to break out of its current slide and trade somewhere near 79 by the end of next week.

I am not willing to break my discipline and take on more risk. So please use your influence.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 17 May 2023, 09:34 Thus far, the market is showing no apprehension that Biden might allow a default on America's debt obligations.

McCarthy is in the driver's seat. House Republicans will initiate a reasonable spending cut/debt limit bill, which the Senate must pass and Biden must sign.
=======================================

Help me achieve my current goal. I want to see $75,000 in my trading account by Memorial Day.

To do this, I need XLE to break out of its current slide and trade somewhere near 79 by the end of next week.

I am not willing to break my discipline and take on more risk. So please use your influence.
There are promises of re-filling the SPRs, so there's that. Otherwise I'll say a prayer that God will bless your efforts.

As far as Mack-D, and RSI and the others, yes I'm familiar with them, and that's about all. I still probably don't do it right, but I'm still making a few dollars, and I'm enjoying myself. I was looking hard at AMZN early this morning, but am still looking. It's still above my price point.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 17 May 2023, 11:24 There are promises of re-filling the SPRs, so there's that. Otherwise I'll say a prayer that God will bless your efforts.

As far as Mack-D, and RSI and the others, yes I'm familiar with them, and that's about all. I still probably don't do it right, but I'm still making a few dollars, and I'm enjoying myself. I was looking hard at AMZN early this morning, but am still looking. It's still above my price point.
SPX and XLE are in surprisingly good mood today.

Do you know why? Could it be the rumors of refilling the SPR?
====================

HOODY-HOO! My account set a new high record today!

$75k is within reach! But if RUT gets much more exuberant, it could risk needing an expensive adjustment.

Don't pray too hard....
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Post by Del »

Some are saying that yesterday surged to test resistance because investors were encouraged by the political jibber-jabber regarding the debt crisis.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/5-thing ... ay-18.html
Investors liked what they heard coming out of debt ceiling negotiations in Washington on Wednesday (more below), if the day’s stock market gains are any indication. The Dow surged over 400 points, while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 each jumped more than 1%.
....
At least President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy agree on one thing: They think the United States government won’t default on its debt. Both leaders said as much Wednesday, with just a few weeks to go before the U.S. is set to run out of cash to pay its bills. Negotiations between the White House and McCarthy’s camp have intensified, and they will need to produce some kind of deal within days in order for Congress to pass a bill and get it to Biden’s desk ahead of a default, which economists estimate could result in millions of jobs lost and a big hit to the U.S. gross domestic product.
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Post by Del »

Del wrote: 17 May 2023, 09:34 I am not willing to break my discipline and take on more risk.
Scratch that....

I'm looking at $75,000 now, but I need those indexes to keep rolling down the middle of the lane through Wednesday.

Dear Lord, please don't let Biden screw this one up!
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