Stock Trading

[sweetandsour]

Damn bulls.....

This is all being pushed by a few tech stocks, right? But everyone is dot-comming over AI now. Maybe another bubble.

Indeed. But the big ones are too expensive for me now. Heck, SPY is too expensive for me now. I still have AAPL that I'm holding, but keeping an eye on.

[sweetandsour]

Will there be a recession? Or not.

I'm still holding a few shares each of AAPL, GM, and AMZN. Really wanting to dump the GM; if it gets to 37.5 I'll break even. I was looking at Element 25, a penny stock on the Australian exchange. Can I purchase stock on foreign exchanges?

[Del]

Will there be a recession? Or not.

I'm still holding a few shares each of AAPL, GM, and AMZN. Really wanting to dump the GM; if it gets to 37.5 I'll break even. I was looking at Element 25, a penny stock on the Australian exchange. Can I purchase stock on foreign exchanges?

There's no legal reason preventing you from buying on any exchange. If your broker has access to the exchange, they will keep your trade records in compliance for US tax laws.

Put in an order, if you like it.

June was a brutal month for me. Too much exuberance blowing the roof off my condors. I will do well if I can get my balance back up to $75k (such as I was celebrating in late May).

[sweetandsour]

Will there be a recession? Or not.

I'm still holding a few shares each of AAPL, GM, and AMZN. Really wanting to dump the GM; if it gets to 37.5 I'll break even. I was looking at Element 25, a penny stock on the Australian exchange. Can I purchase stock on foreign exchanges?

There's no legal reason preventing you from buying on any exchange. If your broker has access to the exchange, they will keep your trade records in compliance for US tax laws.

Put in an order, if you like it.

June was a brutal month for me. Too much exuberance blowing the roof off my condors. I will do well if I can get my balance back up to $75k (such as I was celebrating in late May).

I entered a limit sell order for GM this morning at 37.6, and went about my day. I see this evening that its' high was 37.52. I don't know about this market, especially right now. My FA still says recession is coming; the interest rate hikes are snowballing and beginning to take effect.

[Del]

I entered a limit sell order for GM this morning at 37.6, and went about my day. I see this evening that its' high was 37.52. I don't know about this market, especially right now. My FA still says recession is coming; the interest rate hikes are snowballing and beginning to take effect.

The key limiting factor on the market economy is the shortage of able and productive workers. Available, affordable energy is running close second.

When the economy tries to grow faster than its resources, we risk falling into an inflation spiral. Thus the FED is trying to slow investment and growth keeping the cost of capital high. FED wants to keep GDP (and growth of GDP) in balance with the supply of productive labor.

Mr. Market is actually hoping for low -- or even slightly negative -- GDP growth when Q2 reports on July 27, hoping that this will induce FED to lower rates. Mr. Market is also betting heavily that AI will increase productivity and ease labor pressures, boosting the world economy like desktop computers and the Internet did in the 90's.

We will likely see a short and shallow recession, at least on paper.

I expect that the market indexes will continue to climb the wall of worry, and be okay. In times of slow growth, companies can pay larger dividends or stock buy-backs, so investors continue to see positive returns.

As for trading, this is when having a toolkit of option strategies is helpful. A trader can thrive in any market -- up, down, or sideways. Even without options, a trader like yourself could learn to manage short positions and make money in a bear market environment.

[sweetandsour]

I sold my GM on one of its bounces yesterday, so there's that, and $100, but it took way too long. AMZN is next if it'll move like the analysts say it will. I'm getting out of my price range again though. I'm looking for another good one where I can buy 50 or 100 shares.

[Del]

I sold my GM on one of its bounces yesterday, so there's that, and $100, but it took way too long. AMZN is next if it'll move like the analysts say it will. I'm getting out of my price range again though. I'm looking for another good one where I can buy 50 or 100 shares.

What happened with Element 25? Are you able to trade that stock?

It occurs to me that you should have access to almost any international large cap, but an Aussie penny stock might be difficult to access.

I am not comfortable with my luck at picking stocks and guessing which way they will move in the short run. I'm holding my positions in XLE and XLK and selling covered calls. Meanwhile, I am focusing on managing iron condor trades for cash flow.

In six months, I have made $35k in condors. (up 63%)

I have lost $13k in stupid stock trades. (down 24%)
SPX is up 14% YTD, so I have painfully underperformed a buy-and-hold index strategy. No more clever trades for me.

Net return: I am up 39% YTD. I should be very happy about this, but I'm not feeling it. June was a really rough month for me, during a season when I should be raking in cash. Exuberance is a killer of condors. I haven't gained any ground over the last six weeks, but July should be a good month for me.

Q2 Earnings season is coming.
=======================

Powell is still hawkish.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/5-thing ... ne-29.html

Stocks were mixed Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again warned that tighter monetary policy was on the way. That may include rate hikes at consecutive Fed policy-setting meetings after the central bank hit pause in June.

Headline in the graphic reads: "Fed Chair Powell: Policy Hasn't Been Restrictive Long Enough"

[sweetandsour]

I sold my GM on one of its bounces yesterday, so there's that, and $100, but it took way too long. AMZN is next if it'll move like the analysts say it will. I'm getting out of my price range again though. I'm looking for another good one where I can buy 50 or 100 shares.

Sold AAPL this morning when it peaked at 193. I didn't feel like holding it all weekend and through the 4th, and I'll buy it back at the next dip, then see if it will top 200. AMZN is up today too but I decided to wait it out for a better profit. Analysts are still talking recession, bla bla bla ...

[Del]

I sold my GM on one of its bounces yesterday, so there's that, and $100, but it took way too long. AMZN is next if it'll move like the analysts say it will. I'm getting out of my price range again though. I'm looking for another good one where I can buy 50 or 100 shares.

Sold AAPL this morning when it peaked at 193. I didn't feel like holding it all weekend and through the 4th, and I'll buy it back at the next dip, then see if it will top 200. AMZN is up today too but I decided to wait it out for a better profit. Analysts are still talking recession, bla bla bla ...

I trust you banked some nice profit on AAPL.

A good bit of greedy exuberance on SPX today, but not enough to threaten my monthly condor that expired today. Still, I lost money this month due to defensive adjustments I had to make the last time it got this high. Net damage was $1600.

RUT was somewhat less exuberant, but it is threatening my condor that expires Wed Jul 5. I'm trusting that holiday trading will be light and variable on Monday, so we'll see what happens. I rolled up the puts to squeeze some more profit on the low end, as there is a lot of strong support underneath us. And I added some more calls way up high, safely out of the way. All totaled, I hope to break even this week if the market pushes up through my condor and I have to move out of the way. Just hoping the resistance holds through the holiday.

I know.... talking about condors is about as boring as listening to a guy tell a draw-by-draw story from last night's poker game. It's all about asking the market to respect the current levels of support and resistance. Break-throughs can be painful for me.

XLK closed at 173.86. I had a covered call expire today, strike 175. I am pleased with my aim. I don't think I will sell any more calls on XLK.... the premium isn't significant enough to care about, and the opportunity for big surges during earnings season is something I don't want to miss. I have 100 shares, 22% of my account in XLK.

XLE closed at 81.17. I have 500 shares of XLE, which is way too much (just over 50% of my account value). I have two calls over this which expire next Friday. One at strike 81, and one at strike 82.5. I don't care if one or both of these get called out, as I have too much XLE and not enough cash. I will keep selling calls close to the money until my position gets whittled down a bit.

I bought JEPI at a high mark back on May 1, mostly because I wanted to hide some cash from myself. Those 200 shares are my insurance policy in case I need some extra cash. Meanwhile, I get dividends. Anyhow, JEPI gapped up today (it never does that) and for the first time I have capital gain in that holding, in addition to dividend income.

I think Mr. Market is a bit excited about the analysts' jabber about recession. They are betting that Powell will hold off on the rate hikes, or something. Also a bit of early excitement for earnings season. Lots of greedy emotions at play. Any bit of bad news could knock the wind from their sails.

[Del]

I am well pleased with today's short pull-back on RUT. My condor should safely expire today, securing $2000 profit for the week.

RUT tested resistance on Friday and on Monday, daring me to make an expensive adjustment away from trouble. But I decided to stand my ground, as I reckoned it was likely to pull back. Mercifully, it has.