Stock Trading

[Del]

Q1 GDP drops on April 25. And then the FED meeting on May 1.

Both of these are likely to spook the market, one way or the other. Market is a bit skittish, so I expect some significant sell-offs. High GDP means inflation and rate fears, low GDP means recession fears. FED is likely to speak hawkishly about inflation.

Meanwhile, the earnings season will begin in earnest on the week of April 22.

Almost time for me to restrain my condor trades, maybe even look to pick up some bargain stocks.

How do you feel about Amazon?

[sweetandsour]

Q1 GDP drops on April 25. And then the FED meeting on May 1.

Both of these are likely to spook the market, one way or the other. Market is a bit skittish, so I expect some significant sell-offs. High GDP means inflation and rate fears, low GDP means recession fears. FED is likely to speak hawkishly about inflation.

Meanwhile, the earnings season will begin in earnest on the week of April 22.

Almost time for me to restrain my condor trades, maybe even look to pick up some bargain stocks.

How do you feel about Amazon?

Today was brutal, but CALM held in there, and came back some during aftermarket. I bought a few shares on a recent dip just to keep it on my radar screen. Amazon is up 24% for the year and at it's 52 week high, and I hate buying at a price that is a stock's high for the year. I'm still angry that I sold last year. Still, the consensus rating is "buy".

[Del]

How do you feel about Amazon?

Today was brutal, but CALM held in there, and came back some during aftermarket. I bought a few shares on a recent dip just to keep it on my radar screen. Amazon is up 24% for the year and at it's 52 week high, and I hate buying at a price that is a stock's high for the year. I'm still angry that I sold last year. Still, the consensus rating is "buy".

I ended up buying 100 XLE at 96 during aftermarket to hold in my play account. I think there's a lot of steam left in energy as a long-term holding. And Trump promises to take the leash and muzzle off of American energy. WTI crude was trading at support yesterday

I'm still thinking about rotating some IRA funds out of ARKK etf and into AMZN.

My condors on RUT and SPX will expire on Wednesday. Friday's drop approached my lower boundary on RUT, but didn't bust through it. I am not worried, merely "concerned." It is still tracking the theoretical trading boundaries that I had drawn, so that's some comfort. I'm trusting the next few candles will tick up. There might even be a little rally on Monday.

SPX landed on some firm support. Not concerned.

I went looking for news to explain yesterday's sell-off. I was pleased that most analysts were saying what I said: The inflation report and resulting bond rate increases, concerns about scheduled GDP and FED reports, and apprehension about earnings.

But this bullish analyst blames Tax Day!

John Flood, head of Americas equities sales trading at Goldman Sach's global banking and markets division, said in a briefing on Friday that investors fretting over a stock market bubble can relax, as he believes the S&P 500 set to soar further for four reasons.

First, the strategist predicts a late April market surge, as historical pattern traditionally see investors take gains ahead of tax season, leading to a temporary sell-off before a fresh uptick later in the month.

"Retail investors tend to sell stocks in order to pay their tax bills – meaning we often see the market slip into Tax Day, then rally afterwards," he said.

[Del]

I'm watching the market gnaw at my condors during the last half-hour of the day.

It's too late to make an adjustment. Just have to let the chips fall where they will.

I sold 100 JEPI to create cash to cover the margin.

Hmphf.
==============================

Mr. Market clawed back $8910 at the close. Knocked me back to the first week of March.

[sweetandsour]

Some interesting energy news:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/low-methane ... -1.2059651

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ran-attack

And you'll really love this one ... https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biden-likel ... -1.2059234

As far as my small trading account, I'm thinking of selling my JEPI also. Looking at MEGI, and also BAC.

[Del]

Some interesting energy news:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/low-methane ... -1.2059651

What fresh hell is "Low-Methane Natural Gas"? I had to go looking for an article to explain that, as this gush of Canadian journalism spluge does not explain.

This link sheds a little light:
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintellig ... o-77161602

As nearly as I can tell, some pipeline guys upgraded the seals on their line... and now they are selling their NG at a premium because they have less "methane intensity" -- which is the amount of methane escaping from leaks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ran-attack

This is not alarming. Iran was telegraphing warnings about their attack for several days before. Everyone knew about it if they followed more than the American mainstream media.

And you'll really love this one ... https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biden-likel ... -1.2059234

Biden will drain SPR dry, if he thinks it will win him some votes in key swing states. Doesn't cost him anything.

As far as my small trading account, I'm thinking of selling my JEPI also. Looking at MEGI, and also BAC.

Bank of America Corp (BAC) has done well after the FED rate increases. Higher rates mean higher profits. I don't follow banks, so I have no idea whether there is any more gas for stock price growth. Plan to sell the stock after FED announces any rate reduction and Treasury rates (mortgages) drop.

[Del]

Mr. Market clawed back $8910 at the close. Knocked me back to the first week of March.

This sounds like an awful clobbering. It certainly is a big deal. But it follows an incredible excess of success, so basically I got knocked back to a normal rate of return.

Just talking condors now.... ignoring draws and returns on stock holdings:

17 weeks into the year, I was averaging $1340 per week in cash revenues from condors.

After this setback, I am still averaging $820 per week.

My goal for the year is to average $700 per week.

I just need to be patient for a few weeks. Let the GDP, FED, and Q1 earnings reports to come in, and the market should settle into a stable rhythm suitable for condor trades again.

My account balance -- considering condors, stock positions, and even cash draws -- is up 30% YTD.

If I add the cash draws back to the balance, my investment performance is an outstanding 42.6%! I can take it easy and wait until conditions are less volatile.

[sweetandsour]

Mr. Market clawed back $8910 at the close. Knocked me back to the first week of March.

This sounds like an awful clobbering. It certainly is a big deal. But it follows an incredible excess of success, so basically I got knocked back to a normal rate of return.

Just talking condors now.... ignoring draws and returns on stock holdings:

17 weeks into the year, I was averaging $1340 per week in cash revenues from condors.

After this setback, I am still averaging $820 per week.

My goal for the year is to average $700 per week.

I just need to be patient for a few weeks. Let the GDP, FED, and Q1 earnings reports to come in, and the market should settle into a stable rhythm suitable for condor trades again.

My account balance -- considering condors, stock positions, and even cash draws -- is up 30% YTD.

If I add the cash draws back to the balance, my investment performance is an outstanding 42.6%! I can take it easy and wait until conditions are less volatile.

Israel struck back at Iran last night and SPX futures appear to be dropping. I'm thinking of selling my Fidelity SPX fund while it's still over 5000, if I can catch it still above 5000.

[Del]

Israel struck back at Iran last night and SPX futures appear to be dropping. I'm thinking of selling my Fidelity SPX fund while it's still over 5000, if I can catch it still above 5000.

The futures market panicked when the attack started last night, then recovered after a few hours. Market opened this morning like nothing happened. SPX opened just a few points below yesterday's close and inching up, an unremarkable event.

I don't know what is going to happen. GDP for Q1 drops on Thursday morning next week, and FED meeting on Wednesday afternoon the next week. I expect a few panic moments when the news drops. Geopolitical instability always spooks the market.

Also starting on Monday, hundreds of corporations will begin reporting earnings and offering guidance on future revenues and profits. Those earnings will ultimately determine whether or not the bull market continues its drive.

At this moment, SPX is down 4.8% from its record high on Mar 28. This is normal behavior in a bull market. A pull-back of 4% to 7% can happen at any time during a sustained bull market as traders consolidate all the valuations.
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My crystal ball says that SPX will touch close to 4975 on next Wednesday, April 24. There is a convergence of the downward channel floor, an upward channel floor, and strong historical support at that point. Then Thursday morning, GDP report will drop.... Time for Mr. Market to wake up and stop sleepwalking.

Also on Thursday, Amazon reports earnings after market close. Major player in both tech and retail sectors.
Friday morning, Exxon and Chevron both report earnings before market opens.

Hold on to your butts! Next week is going to be a ride.

[Del]

A significant drop in SPX today (Friday, 4/19).

This was odd.... no comparative drop in the Russell 2000. XLE is up a bit. No big news headlines from Israel/Iran, Trump trial, etc.

I did some digging.... It looks like NVDA is the only thing to drop big today. And due to its massive capitalization, it took the 500 Index down all by itself. It's just a math thing.

I have not yet found any news as to what caused NVDA to drop 9% from yesterday's close.

Amazon also down 2.8% from yesterday. I suspect there is no real cause for this; just got caught in NVDA's gravity well.