Del wrote: ↑19 Apr 2024, 07:09
My crystal ball says that SPX will touch close to 4975 on next Wednesday, April 24. There is a convergence of the downward channel floor, an upward channel floor, and strong historical support at that point. Then Thursday morning, GDP report will drop.... Time for Mr. Market to wake up and stop sleepwalking.
Also on Thursday, Amazon reports earnings after market close. Major player in both tech and retail sectors.
Friday morning, Exxon and Chevron both report earnings before market opens.
Hold on to your butts! Next week is going to be a ride.
Well... Crystal ball got the index right, but the date wrong. Monday morning (8/22) opened higher after Friday's sell-off. The index dropped down to touch support at 4970, then got excited about corporate earnings and rumors of earnings.
Mr. Market is also bouyed by Iran's announcement that they will not retaliate further in their conflict with Israel. I don't know why anyone would trust anything that Iran says, but Mr. Market is not a rational guy.
Mr. Market is very happy with the earnings reported this Tuesday morning. We're off to a good start. About 30% of SPX member companies are reporting earnings this week.
1) GDP was less than expected. 1.6% annual growth rate, based on Q1 data. Market expected a nice, average 2.5%
Inflation rate calculated on the entire GDP was slightly higher than expected (3.1% vs. 3.0%).
Slow GDP growth is "stagnation." Slow growth combined with persistent inflation is "stagflation."
Pundits will slice and dice this... Here's my take: Bidenomics will be with us for years. Biden increased the M2 money supply by a shocking 30%, without any corresponding increase in economic growth.
Biden also shut down roughly 100,000 jobs on Day 1, just by killing the Keystone XL pipeline. He hasn't eased up the pressure on killing productive jobs. Yet unemployment remains stubbornly low, mainly due to Biden's dramatic increase in government jobs (for example, 80,000 new IRS employees). Unfortunately, government doesn't actually produce anything to increase our Gross Domestic Product. Thus GDP hasn't grown enough to fill out the oversized money supply. That's why inflation isn't done yet.
Mr. Market was startled to see this, but only briefly. Market opened with a big gap down and continued to drop.... for 30 minutes.
Guess what!?!?! I kinda expected this. I sold a nice chunk of bull put spreads on SPX around 9:00 am! Basically a large bet on the position that SPX will not break below support between now and Tuesday, ahead of the FED report on Wednesday next week.
2) Corporate Earnings have been coming in strong.
Mr. Market had a cup of coffee and remembered that even if government policy sucks, corporate earnings are what stocks are all about. There was a strong recovery through the trading day -- far above and away from my put spreads!
3) Aftermarket, Microsoft and Alphabet/Google reported earnings. And they far exceeded expectations.
Both stocks immediately jumped 12%. SPX futures jumped a whole 1% in the ten minutes after market closed, in brief but very heavy trading.
My positions in AMZN and NVDA also boosted after market close. Basically, anything related to AI got a lift, as traders reckon there's gold in them thar hills.
Gains were sustained until 7 pm when after market closed. SPX futures (which trade 23 hours a day) are still high.
This evening, it looks like SPX will open on Friday very near where it opened on Wednesday, as if Thursday's GDP scare never happened.
4) Friday morning, both Exxon and Chevron will report earnings before market. These two make up 40% of XLE.
And no matter what they report for profits, the whole market will be watching what they have to say about the world's energy supply and future costs.
Tomorrow's premarket trading promises to be as interesting as today's after-market trading. I don't know what will happen, but Mr. Market is in the mood for exuberance.
XLE is falling in the pre-market this morning. And I'm seeing articles that suggest now is the time to sell oil stocks. I sold mine at the highs a year or so ago; but I'm still looking at natural gas and LNG, although Biden is doing his best to stop its' production and use.
The overall market (SPY) appears to rebounding somewhat, pre-market this morning.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
sweetandsour wrote: ↑26 Apr 2024, 03:45
XLE is falling in the pre-market this morning. And I'm seeing articles that suggest now is the time to sell oil stocks. I sold mine at the highs a year or so ago; but I'm still looking at natural gas and LNG, although Biden is doing his best to stop its' production and use.
The overall market (SPY) appears to rebounding somewhat, pre-market this morning.
Chevron beat earnings by a little bit. Exxon missed earnings by a little bit.
Exxon will do their conference call at 7:30 central, before market. Chevron's call is later at 10:00. Both are down a wee bit from yesterday's close in early trading, but that doesn't tell much.
I'm holding on to XLE for the long term. It won't continue to be a stellar performer in the coming months, but a stodgy one. It's a value investment that pays good dividends.
I'm betting on a Trump win and the restoration of American energy. That's a long bet, but the sector fundamentals are strong and energy demand isn't going anywhere.
Biden severely baby-slapped our energy sector. Oil companies aren't going to let that happen again. Companies aren't going to invest in American pipelines and refineries without taxpayers putting some skin in the game. Which means that eventually there will be government subsidies to rebuild our aging infrastructure and promises to refill our SPR. It might be another decade, but it will need to be done.
sweetandsour wrote: ↑26 Apr 2024, 03:45
XLE is falling in the pre-market this morning. And I'm seeing articles that suggest now is the time to sell oil stocks. I sold mine at the highs a year or so ago; but I'm still looking at natural gas and LNG, although Biden is doing his best to stop its' production and use.
The overall market (SPY) appears to rebounding somewhat, pre-market this morning.
Chevron beat earnings by a little bit. Exxon missed earnings by a little bit.
Exxon will do their conference call at 7:30 central, before market. Chevron's call is later at 10:00. Both are down a wee bit from yesterday's close in early trading, but that doesn't tell much.
I'm holding on to XLE for the long term. It won't continue to be a stellar performer in the coming months, but a stodgy one. It's a value investment that pays good dividends.
I'm betting on a Trump win and the restoration of American energy. That's a long bet, but the sector fundamentals are strong and energy demand isn't going anywhere.
Biden severely baby-slapped our energy sector. Oil companies aren't going to let that happen again. Companies aren't going to invest in American pipelines and refineries without taxpayers putting some skin in the game. Which means that eventually there will be government subsidies to rebuild our aging infrastructure and promises to refill our SPR. It might be another decade, but it will need to be done.
If the salt domes remain usable after almost completely emptying them. After mid term elections the SPRs were at their lowest levels ever.
Anyway I'm glad it's the weekend, I have some studying to do.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
Del wrote: ↑26 Apr 2024, 05:32
Biden severely baby-slapped our energy sector. Oil companies aren't going to let that happen again. Companies aren't going to invest in American pipelines and refineries without taxpayers putting some skin in the game. Which means that eventually there will be government subsidies to rebuild our aging infrastructure and promises to refill our SPR. It might be another decade, but it will need to be done.
If the salt domes remain usable after almost completely emptying them. After mid term elections the SPRs were at their lowest levels ever.
Anyway I'm glad it's the weekend, I have some studying to do.
I don't know enough geology to evaluate that. Do you have any insights?
I am livid with Biden's abuse of our national security and our energy infrastructure, but I wasn't aware that he may also have destroyed our infrastructure for restoring the SPR.
Other news..... CAVA freaking exploded in growth on Thursday/Friday. Closed Wed at 60.41. Closed Friday at 69.16. 14.5% Volume was extraordinary on Friday.
I'm not clear why. One new thing is that they opened another store in Chicago, heralding new growth into the Midwest. The other is just that a bunch of analysts wrote some glowing articles urging retail investors (us) to buy "the next Chipotle Grill."
There might be some big institutional investors taking large positions, but those guys usually trickle their accumulation to avoid punching the price up like this.
Anyhow, CAVA blasted through my IRA covered calls, so I only got half of the gain. My calls expire next Friday, so we'll see if maybe it pulls back by then.
NVDA also pushed through my calls, but not badly.
The goal with selling covered calls is to make more cash on premiums from ALL of my positions... more cash than it costs to buy back those positions that get called out. (If I don't achieve this goal, then I'd be better off leaving the positions alone and letting passive market growth do all the work.) I started tracking this in mid-February, and right now (with CAVA's surge) I am just under break-even.
Amazon and Novo-Nordisk announce earnings next week. I'm hoping for a couple of surges there.
FED rate announcement on Wednesday just might knock some wind out of the market for a few days, just in time to improve positions as I buy back stocks on Monday.
Trading Account Performance:Up 53.7%
This is profit that I pay tax on.
Trading Account Balance: Up 41.4%.
This is my measure of compounding growth.
I draw $1400 per month for current enjoyment. Last year I drew more than I grew, ending up with negative growth in my account balance. This year I am focusing more on preserving my capital.
