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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 27 Sep 2022, 19:23
Del wrote: 27 Sep 2022, 19:06 XLE -- Should we hold on to our energy sector position? Or bail and look to buy it back in recovery?

My head is screaming BAIL! BAIL! BAIL!

I can't think of a reason not to listen to myself.

Talk me into it. Or talk me out of it.
I was thinking the exact same thing when it was in high 70s, got sidetracked, and then saw it go down 10 dollars. Surely it will bounce back above 70, maybe even 75, and I'll sell it, I've already decided. I don't want to wait for it to rise, which I think it will by the end of the year, and I don't care too much about the 4% dividend, which I think the record date was 9/20. I'll sell XLE now and use the funds for SPY at some point, 350 or lower. Or else day trade.

Edit: BTW, I read today that there was (is?) a very high "outflow" of XLE. I haven't yet learned if this is a good thing, bad thing, or no thing.
XLE had a few overnight trades at 70 already. That doesn't mean much. It trades around the clock.

I don't know what "outflow" means. Are people selling more XLE than shareholders are selling the underlying stocks? That should stabilize itself quickly, due to arbitrage management.

My concern is that there is another large market sell-off coming soon. There is no such thing as a safe sector when that happens. "When the paddy wagon pulls up to the whorehouse, everybody goes -- even the piano player."

I'm going to have to give this some serious thought tomorrow. I should definitely put a stop loss on, and probably a limit order as well. Or maybe just bail and wait for earnings season to tell its story.

I suppose that oil prices will go up when Biden closes the spigot at SPR. XLE could surge.

Oil is trading under $90 right now. If it drops to $80 and Biden starts buying, that could stabilize our energy profits for a while. Maybe XLE won't fall much lower? I'm going to have to research and think some more.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 27 Sep 2022, 20:18
sweetandsour wrote: 27 Sep 2022, 19:23
Del wrote: 27 Sep 2022, 19:06 XLE -- Should we hold on to our energy sector position? Or bail and look to buy it back in recovery?

My head is screaming BAIL! BAIL! BAIL!

I can't think of a reason not to listen to myself.

Talk me into it. Or talk me out of it.
I was thinking the exact same thing when it was in high 70s, got sidetracked, and then saw it go down 10 dollars. Surely it will bounce back above 70, maybe even 75, and I'll sell it, I've already decided. I don't want to wait for it to rise, which I think it will by the end of the year, and I don't care too much about the 4% dividend, which I think the record date was 9/20. I'll sell XLE now and use the funds for SPY at some point, 350 or lower. Or else day trade.

Edit: BTW, I read today that there was (is?) a very high "outflow" of XLE. I haven't yet learned if this is a good thing, bad thing, or no thing.
XLE had a few overnight trades at 70 already. That doesn't mean much. It trades around the clock.

I don't know what "outflow" means. Are people selling more XLE than shareholders are selling the underlying stocks? That should stabilize itself quickly, due to arbitrage management.

My concern is that there is another large market sell-off coming soon. There is no such thing as a safe sector when that happens. "When the paddy wagon pulls up to the whorehouse, everybody goes -- even the piano player."

I'm going to have to give this some serious thought tomorrow. I should definitely put a stop loss on, and probably a limit order as well. Or maybe just bail and wait for earnings season to tell its story.

I suppose that oil prices will go up when Biden closes the spigot at SPR. XLE could surge.

Oil is trading under $90 right now. If it drops to $80 and Biden starts buying, that could stabilize our energy profits for a while. Maybe XLE won't fall much lower? I'm going to have to research and think some more.
Here is where I saw information regarding the XLE outflow, but it isn't defined, for me anyway.
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Post by sweetandsour »

BTW, take a look at Biogen, BIIB. They announced a new Alzheimer's drug and jumped way up.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 27 Sep 2022, 23:50
Here is where I saw information regarding the XLE outflow, but it isn't defined, for me anyway.
Here are a couple of educational links I found:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fund-flow.asp
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/10 ... hey-matter

Basically, State Street (who manage all the SPDR's) have a bucket of shares and a bucket of cash as ballast for their ETF management. When lots of people are buying the ETF, they enjoy cash inflow -- so they can go out and buy more shares of underlying stocks. When lots of people are selling their ETF, there is a cash outflow.

Minding cash flows is a gage of investor sentiment. Short term (this week), investors are turning against energy again.

XLE gapped down over Thursday night, as crude oil prices also fell overnight. (Recession fears... economic contraction means drop in overall demand for energy.) This triggered some to dump XLE.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 06:25 BTW, take a look at Biogen, BIIB. They announced a new Alzheimer's drug and jumped way up.
This is the way of pharma stocks. They gap on the announcement of clinical trials and FDA approvals for promising new therapies. You have to get in before the gap.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 06:37
sweetandsour wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 06:25 BTW, take a look at Biogen, BIIB. They announced a new Alzheimer's drug and jumped way up.
This is the way of pharma stocks. They gap on the announcement of clinical trials and FDA approvals for promising new therapies. You have to get in before the gap.
Yep, who knew. It's backing off a little; but Biogen is a big company, and that's still a huuuuge leap.

WRT XLE, it's climbing some, maybe due to some possible interuptions due to Hurr. Ian. Also btw, prayers for folks in the path of that storm. It's looking nasty, and power is already out in some coastal areas.
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Post by Del »

Today's market exuberance is exciting and nerve-wracking. Especially small caps, which are surging. That's my condor on the Russell 2000 index (RUT).

It's all due to the new PM in Britain. She is drilling in the North Sea, fracking in Wales, cutting taxes, and her central bank is cutting rates and buying bonds. Exactly the opposite of what Biden and the Fed are doing.

As a result, American bond rates are dropping. And the market is surging -- just one day after setting new lows in our bear market.

I woke up this morning, concerned that the market might drop below the down-side on my condor that expires today. Now it is threatening to blow through the TOP legs of my condor.

I'm not going to adjust it, because it looks like the market has reached its top for the day. But I've been biting my nails for an hour, and I've got 2.5 hours to go.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:40 Today's market exuberance is exciting and nerve-wracking. Especially small caps, which are surging. That's my condor on the Russell 2000 index (RUT).

It's all due to the new PM in Britain. She is drilling in the North Sea, fracking in Wales, cutting taxes, and her central bank is cutting rates and buying bonds. Exactly the opposite of what Biden and the Fed are doing.

As a result, American bond rates are dropping. And the market is surging -- just one day after setting new lows in our bear market.

I woke up this morning, concerned that the market might drop below the down-side on my condor that expires today. Now it is threatening to blow through the TOP legs of my condor.

I'm not going to adjust it, because it looks like the market has reached its top for the day. But I've been biting my nails for an hour, and I've got 2.5 hours to go.
XLE touched 72 briefly. Did you sell?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 11:18
Del wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 10:40 Today's market exuberance is exciting and nerve-wracking. Especially small caps, which are surging. That's my condor on the Russell 2000 index (RUT).

It's all due to the new PM in Britain. She is drilling in the North Sea, fracking in Wales, cutting taxes, and her central bank is cutting rates and buying bonds. Exactly the opposite of what Biden and the Fed are doing.

As a result, American bond rates are dropping. And the market is surging -- just one day after setting new lows in our bear market.

I woke up this morning, concerned that the market might drop below the down-side on my condor that expires today. Now it is threatening to blow through the TOP legs of my condor.

I'm not going to adjust it, because it looks like the market has reached its top for the day. But I've been biting my nails for an hour, and I've got 2.5 hours to go.
XLE touched 72 briefly. Did you sell?
No. I'm too busy losing my arm with my condor.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 28 Sep 2022, 11:18ping
OMG! What a dreadful day! Pull up a chart of RUT if you wish, and set it to 10-minute candles. :geek:

I woke up this morning with an awesome total of $3127 in premium for this week.

I still had most of this -- with a strong shot at holding on to all of it -- until 2:00 pm.

My short call strike is in the money at 1710. A late afternoon surge started.

It was too late to make adjustments, just an hour short of expiration. So I had to trust and hope for the common phenomenon of a small sell-off at the end of the day, which often happens on surge days.

At the top, 10 minutes before market close, I was looking at $7640 pay-out.... giving back all of my premium, plus taking $4513 from my pocket. :doh:

At 2:50, the index started to sell. Ten minutes later, the index closed at 1715.24.

I'll get to keep $507 profit for the week. I'm ready for a drink.
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Last edited by Del on 28 Sep 2022, 13:57, edited 1 time in total.
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