Stock Trading

[Del]

CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is maxed out on "Extreme Greed". "The market is broken", says some of the analysts now. I've been mostly watching so far this year, with just a few trades for small profits. My trading money is still on the side, except for a small stock fund that is up 8.74% for the year. I'm waiting for some deals, while still practicing options trading on paper on the side.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Now is the time to buy XLE. It's trading near 87.

Or you could sell a put for March 3 at strike 88. Pocket $300 in premium. This trade expects to expire out-of-the-money, and you keep the premium. But if it happens to close below 88, then you actually buy shares at 88 - 3 = 85.

Do this as a paper trade, if you like.

Tech sector (XLK) is still flying high on greed. Meanwhile energy is orphaned and undervalued. I expect that these will correct soon. Before the end of earnings season.

[sweetandsour]

CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is maxed out on "Extreme Greed". "The market is broken", says some of the analysts now. I've been mostly watching so far this year, with just a few trades for small profits. My trading money is still on the side, except for a small stock fund that is up 8.74% for the year. I'm waiting for some deals, while still practicing options trading on paper on the side.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Now is the time to buy XLE. It's trading near 87.

Or you could sell a put for March 3 at strike 88. Pocket $300 in premium. This trade expects to expire out-of-the-money, and you keep the premium. But if it happens to close below 88, then you actually buy shares at 88 - 3 = 85.

Do this as a paper trade, if you like.

Tech sector (XLK) is still flying high on greed. Meanwhile energy is orphaned and undervalued. I expect that these will correct soon. Before the end of earnings season.

I learned last year not to buy on a Friday, especially on a 3-day holiday weekend, because you never know what's going to happen on a weekend, you know, like shooting down a spy balloon from China. They could have shot it down all week but they waited until Saturday when it was out over the Atlantic. And SoS Blinken has cancelled his planned trip to China. Monday morning will be interesting for the market, if it wasn't going to be already.

[Del]

CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is maxed out on "Extreme Greed". "The market is broken", says some of the analysts now. I've been mostly watching so far this year, with just a few trades for small profits. My trading money is still on the side, except for a small stock fund that is up 8.74% for the year. I'm waiting for some deals, while still practicing options trading on paper on the side.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Now is the time to buy XLE. It's trading near 87.

Or you could sell a put for March 3 at strike 88. Pocket $300 in premium. This trade expects to expire out-of-the-money, and you keep the premium. But if it happens to close below 88, then you actually buy shares at 88 - 3 = 85.

Do this as a paper trade, if you like.

Tech sector (XLK) is still flying high on greed. Meanwhile energy is orphaned and undervalued. I expect that these will correct soon. Before the end of earnings season.

I learned last year not to buy on a Friday, especially on a 3-day holiday weekend, because you never know what's going to happen on a weekend, you know, like shooting down a spy balloon from China. They could have shot it down all week but they waited until Saturday when it was out over the Atlantic. And SoS Blinken has cancelled his planned trip to China. Monday morning will be interesting for the market, if it wasn't going to be already.

I don't think the Biden/China balloon will trouble the markets. Biden's idea of saber rattling was to cancel Blinken's trip. Tensions aren't high.

I am glad that I made adjustments on Thursday. I would have lost more doing nothing, as some unadjusted contracts would have expired in the money on Friday.

This is just the nature of the credit spread trades and iron condors that I like to sell. Sometimes I have to buy myself out of trouble when the market makes big moves.

With this style of trading, I can accurately predict how much premium I will sell each week and each month. With experience, I know that I will typically have to give back 40% of that in defensive adjustments. That part is never fun. But it is reliably predictable.

I am still on track for the profitable year that I have projected. I had four great weeks when I made $6499, and then two weeks with a net lost of just $33. That's how it goes. A year of this would be a very good year, about $56,000. Definitely worth the effort.

[sweetandsour]

CNN Business Fear and Greed Index is maxed out on "Extreme Greed". "The market is broken", says some of the analysts now. I've been mostly watching so far this year, with just a few trades for small profits. My trading money is still on the side, except for a small stock fund that is up 8.74% for the year. I'm waiting for some deals, while still practicing options trading on paper on the side.

https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Now is the time to buy XLE. It's trading near 87.

Or you could sell a put for March 3 at strike 88. Pocket $300 in premium. This trade expects to expire out-of-the-money, and you keep the premium. But if it happens to close below 88, then you actually buy shares at 88 - 3 = 85.

Do this as a paper trade, if you like.

Tech sector (XLK) is still flying high on greed. Meanwhile energy is orphaned and undervalued. I expect that these will correct soon. Before the end of earnings season.

Buying 100 shares at 85 would take too big of a bite out of my trading account. Looking for another energy stock that's priced at 45 +/-.

[Del]

Buying 100 shares at 85 would take too big of a bite out of my trading account. Looking for another energy stock that's priced at 45 +/-.

I strongly urge you to open a paper trading accounting. Fill it with $50,000 of Monopoly money and try some trades on your favorite stocks and ETF's.

If you just gotta risk real money.....

This looks promising:

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG)

Share Price as of Feb 3: $31.96

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 19

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) is an oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on the Williston Basin in the United States. Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) is well-positioned to capitalize on the secular tailwinds in the oil and gas industry and is ranked among the best stocks to buy now. As of October 21, the stock has surged more than 61% year to date. Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) is an attractive buy right now and is also awarding shareholders with dividends. As of October 21, the stock is trading at a PE multiple of 10x and is offering a forward dividend yield of 2.90%.

This October, Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear raised his price target on Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) to $59 from $51 and reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares. On October 19, Jefferies analyst Lloyd Byrne took coverage of Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) with a Buy rating and a $37 price target.

At the close of Q2 2022, 19 hedge funds were eager on Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. (NYSE:NOG) and held stakes worth $160.4 million in the company. Of those, Angelo Gordon & Co was the most prominent investor in the company with stakes worth $31.5 million.

There appears to be adequate liquidity and open interest in the options market for this stock. You could sell a Feb 17 put at strike 31 and pocket $80.

[sweetandsour]

Yesterday was pretty wild with SPY.

[Del]

Yesterday was pretty wild with SPY.

Yeah.... shortly before noon, Fed Chairman Powell spoke at an event in DC. The market went on a quick swoop and dive.

Then at 1:00, another Fed member spoke at a different event, and the market recovered with exuberance.

Definitely a crazy day, based entirely on Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.

I always consult this news calendar for upcoming events: https://www.forexfactory.com

[Del]

I have a short put on XLE to buy at 88, expires Friday Feb 10.

Unless the market does a spectacular recovery tomorrow, I will probably get assigned to purchase.

I got paid close to $300 for this promise, so it is equivalent to buying 100 shares at 85.

[sweetandsour]

I have a short put on XLE to buy at 88, expires Friday Feb 10.

Unless the market does a spectacular recovery tomorrow, I will probably get assigned to purchase.

I got paid close to $300 for this promise, so it is equivalent to buying 100 shares at 85.

Do you keep the shares? Or immediately sell them back.

[Del]

I have a short put on XLE to buy at 88, expires Friday Feb 10.

Unless the market does a spectacular recovery tomorrow, I will probably get assigned to purchase.

I got paid close to $300 for this promise, so it is equivalent to buying 100 shares at 85.

Do you keep the shares? Or immediately sell them back.

A guy could do either. If I didn't want to hold the stock, I would sell it immediately (especially if it's trending down to cut my losses). That would have been a bad trade all around. If it's just cycling normally, I might want to hold it a week or two until it rises, at least to my strike price.
========================================

I will hold this lot of XLE.

It was always my intention to accumulate more XLE anyway. I expect that energy will lead the global recovery. China is getting back online and India is still in growth mode, so energy is my patient, long-term investment. And we aren't done with energy shortages, spurts of high crude oil prices, and high pump prices. It may take a few years, but I expect more capital appreciation.

When most investors want to accumulate, they are told "Buy the dips." But for those with access to option trades, the advice is "Accumulate by selling puts."

A few years ago, financial writers began to examine how Warren Buffet accumulates his vast holdings at great prices. What they discovered was that Buffet always sold puts and made money while he waited for a low market. This also allows him to make his very large purchases without affecting the market prices..... just try buying 30% of a company cheap without driving the prices up. It's hard to do!