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Post by Del »

YEEEEE-HAW!!!! Everything's going my way!

The bulls have come grazing back after Wednesday's panic sell-off and Thursday's consolidation. I had a few thousand dollars riding on those bulls.

My condors on SPX (expires today) and RUT (expires Wednesday) are both safely in the middle of their trading ranges.

I put a new condor on SPX, expires June 2. Upper boundary is 4300, lower bound is 3800. Currently trading at 4120, which means we are a lot closer to the upper limit than the lower limit at set-up day.

Normally, there should be a symmetrical position: same distance to top and bottom from the mark at set-up.... But Mr. Options Market insists that the downside risk is a lot greater than the upside risk.

Given the big Debt Limit fight that is coming this month, I tend to agree.
=============================================

Another reason to rejoice --

My overall trading balance set a new record high today! Because of my debacle with XLE during the Bank Panic, I haven't set a new high since March 8.

Also, I have finally broken above the $70,000 ceiling. I started the year with $55,000.

And thanks again for suggesting JEPI. I still enjoy the idea of throwing an extra $100 bill on top of the pile every month.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 05 May 2023, 09:04 YEEEEE-HAW!!!! Everything's going my way!

The bulls have come grazing back after Wednesday's panic sell-off and Thursday's consolidation. I had a few thousand dollars riding on those bulls.

My condors on SPX (expires today) and RUT (expires Wednesday) are both safely in the middle of their trading ranges.

I put a new condor on SPX, expires June 2. Upper boundary is 4300, lower bound is 3800. Currently trading at 4120, which means we are a lot closer to the upper limit than the lower limit at set-up day.

Normally, there should be a symmetrical position: same distance to top and bottom from the mark at set-up.... But Mr. Options Market insists that the downside risk is a lot greater than the upside risk.

Given the big Debt Limit fight that is coming this month, I tend to agree.
=============================================

Another reason to rejoice --

My overall trading balance set a new record high today! Because of my debacle with XLE during the Bank Panic, I haven't set a new high since March 8.

Also, I have finally broken above the $70,000 ceiling. I started the year with $55,000.

And thanks again for suggesting JEPI. I still enjoy the idea of throwing a $100 bill on top of the pile every month.
Congrats! I'm enjoying watching the show. I sold my AAPL when it was at it's ytd high of 168. It's climbed higher now but I ain't worried about it. If it dips again I'll buy some more, much like I did a few times with NVDA before it became too expensive for me. I'm still holding AMD, I want to at least break even, an anyway the analysts are saying to hold it, it'll be up to 100 soon. We'll see.
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sweetandsour wrote: 05 May 2023, 09:16 Congrats! I'm enjoying watching the show. I sold my AAPL when it was at it's ytd high of 168. It's climbed higher now but I ain't worried about it. If it dips again I'll buy some more, much like I did a few times with NVDA before it became too expensive for me. I'm still holding AMD, I want to at least break even, an anyway the analysts are saying to hold it, it'll be up to 100 soon. We'll see.
Is it still crawfish season? When does it end?

- Asking for a friend
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 05 May 2023, 10:34
sweetandsour wrote: 05 May 2023, 09:16 Congrats! I'm enjoying watching the show. I sold my AAPL when it was at it's ytd high of 168. It's climbed higher now but I ain't worried about it. If it dips again I'll buy some more, much like I did a few times with NVDA before it became too expensive for me. I'm still holding AMD, I want to at least break even, an anyway the analysts are saying to hold it, it'll be up to 100 soon. We'll see.
Is it still crawfish season? When does it end?

- Asking for a friend
I'm still seeing them around for sale. I haven't done any crawfish in years, but yesterday I asked around about it (including my 18 yr old grandson) and all say that they would begin to get larger, tougher to peel, and more expensive, in June as the days get longer and hotter. Been a long time since I did a crawfish boil. I'd be willing to give it a go, even in June.

Now, what's the market going to do today?
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 08 May 2023, 06:13
Del wrote: 05 May 2023, 10:34
sweetandsour wrote: 05 May 2023, 09:16 Congrats! I'm enjoying watching the show. I sold my AAPL when it was at it's ytd high of 168. It's climbed higher now but I ain't worried about it. If it dips again I'll buy some more, much like I did a few times with NVDA before it became too expensive for me. I'm still holding AMD, I want to at least break even, an anyway the analysts are saying to hold it, it'll be up to 100 soon. We'll see.
Is it still crawfish season? When does it end?

- Asking for a friend
I'm still seeing them around for sale. I haven't done any crawfish in years, but yesterday I asked around about it (including my 18 yr old grandson) and all say that they would begin to get larger, tougher to peel, and more expensive, in June as the days get longer and hotter. Been a long time since I did a crawfish boil. I'd be willing to give it a go, even in June.

Now, what's the market going to do today?
This week: Market has eyes on the Debt Ceiling fight (Biden meets with Congressional leaders on Tuesday) and the CPI data from May (Wednesday morning). I expect a lot of twitchy fingers are hovering over their SELL buttons this week.
===========================================
Fundamentally, the market is priced about right. Perhaps a little on the cheap side. I'm looking to hold onto my XLE, and perhaps even acquire some XLK (tech sector). Tech has outperformed Energy this year, and will probably continue to do so until Biden's energy sanctions lift and China's industrial sector gets back online. Good time to hold and be patient.

Traditionally, summer markets are pretty tame and flat as the Q1 earnings season matures. Gas and Oil prices increase, giving an edge to Energy. But mostly its a great season to make money on condors, betting on the market's lack of momentum. I intend to make some serious money this long summer season.

Meanwhile, there is a still a lot of fear and geopolitical instability.... with persistent risk of a global recession.

This kinda reminds me of the Obama years.... for two full years, Obama/Pelosi had their feet on the brakes (employers were not hiring or investing, fearing that they would have to pay for Obamacare). Meanwhile, the FED had both feet on the gas, trying to recover from the 2008 Subprime Meltdown and trying to offset ObamaScare. When Obamacare was finally defanged, the market went on a zoom -- prolonged by Trump tax and energy policies.

Only this time, Biden and the FED have both feet on the brakes, plus the threat of renewed riots and domestic terrorism if Republican voters try doing anything to fix this. It might be another two years before we see a new market high. The last record high on SPX (4800) was over a year ago -- Jan 3, 2022.

There is a silver lining: Healthy markets grow steadily by cautiously climbing the Great Wall of Worry. As society adjusts to the turmoil, we may continue to thrive -- at least economically.
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Post by Del »

No comment yet this evening from Biden's meeting with congressional leaders today over the debt limit. No blip in the market futures tonight.

Even the VIX was pretty relaxed today, in spite of the looming inflation news coming on tomorrow morning (Wednesday).

A couple of FED members gave speeches today.... saying that they see inflation coming down. They don't expect any recession. Commercial bank credit is tightening anyway, so they don't think the FED will need to raise rates. They don't expect to drop FED rates anytime soon.

One of the guys said that he believes they can get inflation back down to 2%. I suppose he had his fingers crossed.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 09 May 2023, 19:50 No comment yet this evening from Biden's meeting with congressional leaders today over the debt limit. No blip in the market futures tonight.

Even the VIX was pretty relaxed today, in spite of the looming inflation news coming on tomorrow morning (Wednesday).

A couple of FED members gave speeches today.... saying that they see inflation coming down. They don't expect any recession. Commercial bank credit is tightening anyway, so they don't think the FED will need to raise rates. They don't expect to drop FED rates anytime soon.

One of the guys said that he believes they can get inflation back down to 2%. I suppose he had his fingers crossed.
I'm not yet seeing any real life reduction in inflation, including groceries, gas, and other items that aren't included in the official numbers or indexes.

But I am seeing AMD climbing this morning, and I have my finger on the sell trigger, and waiting for the right moment.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 10 May 2023, 07:11 I am seeing AMD climbing this morning, and I have my finger on the sell trigger, and waiting for the right moment.
As of 9:45 am: AMD was trading well above 99 for a bit... almost but not quite hit 100. I hope you caught that window to jump off!
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Post by Del »

I had a great morning of trading.... got everything done in the first 10 minutes.

I saw that the pre-market futures were very enthusiastic about the inflation news which came in pretty much were everyone expected. I expected that the market would open high, and then the professional traders would bring everything back down to level. Nothing had actually changed, after all.

Mr. Market ended up behaving just as I predicted.

First thing I did was to close 2 short puts on XLE at strike 80.5 which will expire on Friday 5/12. I already have too much XLE again (600 shares); I really don't want any more at this time. It cost me $183 to close as XLE was trading about 80.5 at the time. (XLE dropped to 79 within minutes, thus saving me about $200.)

Several weeks ago, I got paid $230 for selling those puts and some covered calls, all to expire this Friday. After paying $183 to bail on the deal, I'm still up $45.

I'm just trying to squeeze a little extra out of my position. I'll make big money on the position when Biden is gone, when the world and American energy recovers.
==========================================

I'm still selling iron condors on RUT every week that expire on Wednesday. This is my workhorse. Last week's position expired today (5/10), right between the goalposts, securing $1904 in premium.

I expected some volatility would come with the CPI data.... so this week, I set up my condor on Tuesday (expires 5/17). When the market opened rather high this morning, I sold some more call spreads -- high and outside of the original upper boundary. $322 in premium. (This premium covered the $183 that I had to pay closing puts on XLE, so I am up cash for the day. Throw another $139 onto the pile.)

Total premium for this week is $1904 + $322 = $1914.
=========================================

From April 10 to May 10, I made $11,450 on condors. But XLE is down and dragging like a sea anchor, so my account balance is up just $7700 for the month.

I screwed up big time with XLE, selling at the bottom of the bank panic and then waiting too long to jump back in. Not to mention that I probably screwed myself with the IRS wash rule.... I probably lost $10,000 or more stepping on that rake. I won't break even until XLE gets up to 96 or better.

As of today, my cash-equivalent balance is up $16,800 YTD. Starting with $55k, this is 30% return in just over 4 months. (SPX is up 7.75%.) I should be overjoyed, but it could be so much better.

I hope to make good money on condors during the summer doldrums. And then steer cautiously into fourth quarter. With patience and moderation, I have fair reason to hope for a year-end return of 100%. And by this time next year, I could even start drawing a monthly allowance from my trading balance.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 10 May 2023, 07:47
sweetandsour wrote: 10 May 2023, 07:11 I am seeing AMD climbing this morning, and I have my finger on the sell trigger, and waiting for the right moment.
As of 9:45 am: AMD was trading well above 99 for a bit... almost but not quite hit 100. I hope you caught that window to jump off!
It got within a few cents of 100 twice in the last month or so, and went to 82 in between. I intended to buy some shares when it was in the low 80s but got sidetracked and missed that. But anyway, I ended up selling at 99, so there's that. If it drops back to low 80s again I'll buy 40 shares. But for right now I'm screening stocks again, looking for some volatility.
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