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Post by Del »

Some comments and insight on NVDA

The Bear Market Is Over for Nvidia
The emergence of the AI economy is a long-term thesis for owning Nvidia right now, but the more notable news on the last earnings update was that the company would be returning to growth again. It doesn't completely justify the more than 60% run-up in the stock price so far in 2023, nor the more than doubling in share price from lows last reached in mid-October 2022.

Stock prices are volatile, and investors should fully expect a pullback in Nvidia from these levels.

...

Reasonable valuation is relative, though. Even when eyeing a strong rally in financial results in the next year, Nvidia is a premium-priced stock. That is going to create some very volatile stock price action in the months ahead. Nevertheless, Nvidia has earned that premium price tag. I don't think this stock will be cheap anytime soon. If you decide to buy now, do so with the intent of owning Nvidia for the very long term.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 28 Feb 2023, 14:02 Some comments and insight on NVDA

The Bear Market Is Over for Nvidia
The emergence of the AI economy is a long-term thesis for owning Nvidia right now, but the more notable news on the last earnings update was that the company would be returning to growth again. It doesn't completely justify the more than 60% run-up in the stock price so far in 2023, nor the more than doubling in share price from lows last reached in mid-October 2022.

Stock prices are volatile, and investors should fully expect a pullback in Nvidia from these levels.

...

Reasonable valuation is relative, though. Even when eyeing a strong rally in financial results in the next year, Nvidia is a premium-priced stock. That is going to create some very volatile stock price action in the months ahead. Nevertheless, Nvidia has earned that premium price tag. I don't think this stock will be cheap anytime soon. If you decide to buy now, do so with the intent of owning Nvidia for the very long term.
I bought and sold NVDA several times successfully, then finally sold the last I had last year at ~190 for a small loss before it dropped to the 140s. I don't know how many times I was tempted to buy all I could when it was at 140, but I moved on to other short term opportunities. I'm glad to see it be volatile, I can deal with that on a daily basis.
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Post by Del »

XLE on Tues/Wed: Whatever happened yesterday has pleasantly unhappened this morning.

Let's see if it holds on.
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Post by Del »

XLE is holding on nicely.... even showing some relative strength against the SPX. If the market turns up for a bit, looks like energy sector might lead the way.

January was booming, but February was a rough month. I held up okay.... My account balance ended February at about the same level as it entered the month.

If XLE reverses its trend and climbs back up over 88, I will be well-restored. (That's a pretty big "if.")

Here's to some March Market Madness!
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Post by Del »

We are in our tenth week of trading for this year. Time to assess my progress.

I started with $55,000 in my trading fund. My cash/equivalent balance as of Friday, Mar. 3, was $69,200, a new high record for the year.
$14,200 gain. 26% return in 10 weeks.

I made all of that $14,200 on iron condors and credit spreads.

My position in XLE is still at break-even. (As it happens, XLE closing price on Friday was very close to its close on Dec. 31.) All of my gyrations with long calls and covered calls and short puts hasn't amounted to anything.

Overall, I am ahead of my goal for the year. I budgeted for an average of $825/week profit from condors. Actual return has been $1420 per week.

XLE turned down badly two weeks ago, but it has recovered somewhat. It closed just under the resistance marked at 87.5.

Oil has been edging up for several days and over the weekend, so I am hopeful that XLE will open higher on Monday. I want to see XLE climb above resistance and return to the trading range of 88 to 91 in March.

I currently hold 600 shares XLE, and I have four puts expiring in March (strikes between 87 and 91). That's way too much for me.... my position size should not be more than 400 shares. I will be looking for opportunities to unload some of this in the 89 to 90 range.

I took an emergency loan from home equity to cover the put options, to avoid risk of margin call. (That'll teach me to bite off more than I can chew.) I need to reduce my position size soon to repay that loan, so a bit of market exuberance would be a big help.
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Post by sweetandsour »

The market didn't like Powell's remarks today. More of the good-news-is-bad, and vice versa, etc. I may go ahead and sell my XLE; we'll see what it's doing in the morning during pre-market hours. All other trading money is on the side, waiting. According to a report I heard yesterday, the country is in recession already, but the market doesn't know it yet.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 07 Mar 2023, 19:17 The market didn't like Powell's remarks today. More of the good-news-is-bad, and vice versa, etc. I may go ahead and sell my XLE; we'll see what it's doing in the morning during pre-market hours. All other trading money is on the side, waiting. According to a report I heard yesterday, the country is in recession already, but the market doesn't know it yet.
XLE pays out their dividends, week of 3/20, if you want to consider holding on for that. On the other hand, the dividend may be bouying the price up for now. Coin toss.

I am holding some XLE as a cash-equivalent position, just waiting for market recovery. But as I have too much at the present, I am selling covered calls a bit closer to the money, looking to get part of my position called out in the near term after the dividend pay-out.
=================================

There's going to be a lot of volatility news for the next few weeks. Jobs news on this Friday, 3/10. Fed rate increase on March 22.

Inflation and tight labor market are holding back any market growth. I expect market will be mostly flat for the next few years. My take on VIX over the last 3 months is that market is rather neutral mood -- not overly fearful nor exuberant.

This is a great market for selling condors. Or trading volatility on NVDA, if that's still your preferred style.
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Post by gaining_age »

SVB closed it's doors... (or the fed did it for them)
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Post by Del »

gaining_age wrote: 11 Mar 2023, 12:44 SVB closed it's doors... (or the fed did it for them)
The day after crypto bank Silvergate failed. Clobbered the market.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 11 Mar 2023, 13:41
gaining_age wrote: 11 Mar 2023, 12:44 SVB closed it's doors... (or the fed did it for them)
The day after crypto bank Silvergate failed. Clobbered the market.
You watching the news this weekend? All depositors at SVB will be made whole? https://www.federalreserve.gov/newseven ... 30312b.htm


I just read on another forum that SPX futures are up 1% +.
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