Stock Trading

sweetandsour · Post by **sweetandsour** » 09 Jun 2023, 13:59

Del wrote: ↑09 Jun 2023, 10:45
sweetandsour wrote: ↑06 Jun 2023, 13:49ping
Crazy bulls....

Help me read the tea leaves on next week's inflation (CPI) Tuesday and Fed rate Wednesday.

What is the likelihood of another bull charge, this time on SPX? I need some help discerning.

LoL! I pretty much broke even this week trading GM and AAPL. I wanted to sell both positions today but didn't ever sit down and do it. I had a buy order at 155 for CVX since early in the week, right before it jumped up to 159, and it never dropped back down, so there's that. And NVDA? I don't want to talk about it.

According to the Fidelity analysts the bears finally capitulated. The CNN fear and greed index still shows upward momentum ... https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Analysts are showing various charts in the Fidelity sessions, and asking "why has there been no declared recession?" IMO, watch out for next week or the next, the red flags are up. We shall see. In my case, come Monday morning, if GM begins further drop in price, I'm selling. AAPL too for that matter. Then keep my powder dry to buy the next dip.

Del · Post by **Del** » 09 Jun 2023, 17:36

Hmmm.... I have the time to think like a contrarian, as my contracts do not mature until June 30. Extreme Greed is often followed quickly by Extreme Fear.

All the same, I hate to get clobbered twice in one month... and it's clobbering season. Condors are set up with a bullish side and a bearish side, and if one side wins too much, the other side loses hard. Right now, I'm scared of those bulls.

I should consider closing half of my position while the VIX is so low.

I'm going to have to think hard this weekend. I can't do anything until Monday anyway. Maybe some news and Sunday night's futures market open will give me some guidance.
===============================================

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sweetandsour · Post by **sweetandsour** » 09 Jun 2023, 19:51

Del wrote: ↑09 Jun 2023, 17:36 Hmmm.... I have the time to think like a contrarian, as my contracts do not mature until June 30. Extreme Greed is often followed quickly by Extreme Fear.

All the same, I hate to get clobbered twice in one month... and it's clobbering season. Condors are set up with a bullish side and a bearish side, and if one side wins too much, the other side loses hard. Right now, I'm scared of those bulls.

I should consider closing half of my position while the VIX is so low.

I'm going to have to think hard this weekend. I can't do anything until Monday anyway. Maybe some news and Sunday night's futures market open will give me some guidance.
===============================================

Have you always wanted to be a big-time trader on insider information, but you don't have the wealth and power to hear those whispers before anyone else does?

Well now you can!
Want To Copy 'Master Trader' Nancy Pelosi's Investments? There's An ETF For That. Here Are The Holdings

Subversive Capital launched two new ETFs Tuesday that offer investors the chance to mirror the trades being made by members of Congress.

The ETFs are launched in partnership with Unusual Whales, which has been covering the unusual stock trading activity of members of Congress for years. Here are the details.

What Happened: In 2022, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY had its worst-performing year since 2008. That didn’t stop 20% of the members of Congress who traded stocks and options from beating the market, a number that is higher than that of professional money managers over time.

An acquaintance of mine follows this. In fact I think I may have posted about it, maybe a year or so ago. He was following one particular congressman that was on a particular committee, and buying futures for soybeans and ethanol, so my friend was following suit. I never have found out how it turned out. I imagine that ultimately it works out like the meme and Game Stop stocks did during the lockdown.

Del · Post by **Del** » 12 Jun 2023, 09:04

The bulls are clearly lining up for a charge on SPX.

I closed my bearish position that was most at risk. I also rolled up some old puts, taking a more bullish position there and mitigating some damage. I should be okay as the rest of June unfolds. The position expires Jun 30.

We'll see what happens this week with CPI and FED rate meeting.

My condor on RUT that expires Wed is excellently positioned against both fear and exuberance after the FED presser. Bring it!

WTI and XLE are down today.
Finance sector is pulling back a bit too.

Bulls are staking out their territory on XLK.

VIX is just a little antsy ahead of tomorrow's CPI data.
==========================

SCHADENFREUDE WATCH:
BUD is consolidating its bottom.
TARGET (TGT) has breached support and thinking about lower.

Del · Post by **Del** » 13 Jun 2023, 06:15

CPI announced at 4.0% annual inflation, slightly less than market expectation of 4.1%. Down from 4.9% annual inflation reported last month.

Annual Inflation has been falling steadily since the high mark of 9.1%, last July.

Those bulls are already chomping and stomping, just waiting for market to open.
================

Federal Reserve statement and press conference start tomorrow at 1:00 pm Central.

sweetandsour · Post by **sweetandsour** » 13 Jun 2023, 12:30

Del wrote: ↑13 Jun 2023, 06:15 CPI announced at 4.0% annual inflation, slightly less than market expectation of 4.1%. Down from 4.9% annual inflation reported last month.

Annual Inflation has been falling steadily since the high mark of 9.1%, last July.

Those bulls are already chomping and stomping, just waiting for market to open.
================

Federal Reserve statement and press conference start tomorrow at 1:00 pm Central.

Everyone is antsy. Whose algorithmic sell alarm will sound first?

I've still got my GM and AAPL.
We'll see what happens today.

Del · Post by **Del** » 14 Jun 2023, 07:36

sweetandsour wrote: ↑13 Jun 2023, 12:30
Del wrote: ↑13 Jun 2023, 06:15 CPI announced at 4.0% annual inflation, slightly less than market expectation of 4.1%. Down from 4.9% annual inflation reported last month.

Annual Inflation has been falling steadily since the high mark of 9.1%, last July.

Those bulls are already chomping and stomping, just waiting for market to open.
================

Federal Reserve statement and press conference start tomorrow at 1:00 pm Central.
Everyone is antsy. Whose algorithmic sell alarm will sound first?

I've still got my GM and AAPL.
We'll see what happens today.

Bulls pumped with testosterone still dominate the market. Any signs of dovishness from the FED today could set off a stampede. The market will overbuy, then pull back for a few days to find a stable level. I'll see where the dust settles by Thursday morning, and try to read from that.

[Edit] As of 10 am, VIX is complacently unconcerned. Another bullish indicator.

sweetandsour · Post by **sweetandsour** » 14 Jun 2023, 22:15

Del wrote: ↑14 Jun 2023, 07:36
sweetandsour wrote: ↑13 Jun 2023, 12:30
Del wrote: ↑13 Jun 2023, 06:15 CPI announced at 4.0% annual inflation, slightly less than market expectation of 4.1%. Down from 4.9% annual inflation reported last month.

Annual Inflation has been falling steadily since the high mark of 9.1%, last July.

Those bulls are already chomping and stomping, just waiting for market to open.
================

Federal Reserve statement and press conference start tomorrow at 1:00 pm Central.
Everyone is antsy. Whose algorithmic sell alarm will sound first?

I've still got my GM and AAPL.
We'll see what happens today.
Bulls pumped with testosterone still dominate the market. Any signs of dovishness from the FED today could set off a stampede. The market will overbuy, then pull back for a few days to find a stable level. I'll see where the dust settles by Thursday morning, and try to read from that.

[Edit] As of 10 am, VIX is complacently unconcerned. Another bullish indicator.

Prices dipped a bit. What's happening on Thursday? BTW, contracts have been and are being filled, for several million barrels of crude for the Big Hill SPR this summer.
https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-ann ... lenishment

Del · Post by **Del** » 15 Jun 2023, 05:53

sweetandsour wrote: ↑14 Jun 2023, 22:15
Prices dipped a bit. What's happening on Thursday? BTW, contracts have been and are being filled, for several million barrels of crude for the Big Hill SPR this summer.
https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-ann ... lenishment

Purchase of 3 Million Barrels and New Solicitation for Purchase of 3 Million Additional Barrels Advances Efforts to Replenish Reserve at a Good Deal for American Taxpayers, Maintain the SPR’s Operational Readiness, and Protect the Nation’s Energy Security

6 million barrels. That's a good start. I think Biden sold off over 200 million barrels for the "emergency" of preventing a Red Wave election. It would have been a really good deal for taxpayers if Democrats had allowed Trump to buy those 200 m barrels and top off the SPR when oil was in the $20's.

Oh well. We have to play the hand we've been dealt now. At least SPR is turned in the right direction.
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FED chairman Powell hosed down the bulls enough to keep them from charging the electric fence. This is probably good for everyone. It would be healthy for the market to calm down and consolidate their recent gains for a while.

Del · Post by **Del** » 15 Jun 2023, 11:40

Damn bulls.....

This is all being pushed by a few tech stocks, right? But everyone is dot-comming over AI now. Maybe another bubble.