Stock Trading

Where Fellowship and Camaraderie lives: that place where the CPS membership values fun and good fellowship as the cement of the community
User avatar
Del
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2725
Joined: 11 Apr 2022, 22:08
Location: Madison, WI
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 372 times

Stock Trading

Post by Del »

Del wrote: 22 Mar 2023, 20:55 This position expires in two weeks (April 5). Basically, I am telling Mr. Market that I expect a couple of weeks of relatively calm and flat trading. No big drops. Maybe some upward bias, even.
If you think that this is a foolish thing for a guy to say to Mr. Market, I would agree.
sweetandsour
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2243
Joined: 08 Apr 2022, 03:59
Has thanked: 236 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Stock Trading

Post by sweetandsour »

I saw this piece of news this morning, regarding the SPR ... https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock- ... O3UTc5Yeci.

And this, regarding higher gasoline prices this summer, due to falling stocks ... https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-03-22/.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
User avatar
Del
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2725
Joined: 11 Apr 2022, 22:08
Location: Madison, WI
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 372 times

Stock Trading

Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 24 Mar 2023, 07:36 I saw this piece of news this morning, regarding the SPR ... https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock- ... O3UTc5Yeci.

And this, regarding higher gasoline prices this summer, due to falling stocks ... https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 023-03-22/.
I had a heartbreak yesterday. XLE opened and triggered my stop-loss sale at 76. Then it spent the rest of the rising to 77.9. That's $1900, poof -- gone. But I lost a lot more, just watching the price drop from 90+. I simply have to learn to let go and sell in a falling market.

If I wait until XLE gets below 70 to jump back in, at a position more my size, I'll be okay when prices eventually rise. If all those things happen in the right order.

I've earned $20,200 in condors and credit spreads. I've lost $12,300 in XLE.
I should focus on what works.
sweetandsour
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2243
Joined: 08 Apr 2022, 03:59
Has thanked: 236 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Stock Trading

Post by sweetandsour »

Oil (and XLE) is rebounding somewhat, but I'd like to see it make a run upwards. Here's an interesting perspective ... https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-option ... y-334cef5b

Meanwhile I tried to catch PVH on it's way up this morning but had a very frustrating computer glitch and missed out for the most part. It closed at 73.6 yesterday, and is sitting at 87.7 this afternoon, up over 19%.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
User avatar
Del
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2725
Joined: 11 Apr 2022, 22:08
Location: Madison, WI
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 372 times

Stock Trading

Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 28 Mar 2023, 11:43 Oil (and XLE) is rebounding somewhat, but I'd like to see it make a run upwards. Here's an interesting perspective ... https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-option ... y-334cef5b

Meanwhile I tried to catch PVH on it's way up this morning but had a very frustrating computer glitch and missed out for the most part. It closed at 73.6 yesterday, and is sitting at 87.7 this afternoon, up over 19%.
After my XLE shares stopped out at 76, my uncovered calls left me in an overall short position. In plain English, I'm better off is XLE goes DOWN a bit, or at least stays under 80 this week. So naturally, it zoomed back up over 80. I'm not done losing money on XLE yet. I could use a nice dark candle sometime this week.

I kinda went nuts on the condors last week and this week, with adjustments and open positions. I sold $7325 in premiums. So far, so good. If the market index does not surge tomorrow, I will be in great shape. But this is not a good habit to get into.
User avatar
Del
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2725
Joined: 11 Apr 2022, 22:08
Location: Madison, WI
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 372 times

Stock Trading

Post by Del »

SPX looks to have formed a cup. If it forms a handle over the next week or two, we could be poised for a bullish earnings season.
User avatar
Del
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2725
Joined: 11 Apr 2022, 22:08
Location: Madison, WI
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 372 times

Stock Trading

Post by Del »

OPEC vs. Biden

Always bet against Biden.

I cleaned up my holdings in XLE last week. I ended up with 400 shares and covered calls at 86.5.

The OPEC announcement caused XLE to gap up and bump my head against my calls. I will sit on the situation and see what happens.

Next time I make a decision to buy-&-hold, I'm gonna make like Buffet and just hold 'em.
sweetandsour
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2243
Joined: 08 Apr 2022, 03:59
Has thanked: 236 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Stock Trading

Post by sweetandsour »

I'm watching XLE, AAPL and AMD. I could sell all 3 right now and make a profit, and I almost did today but got sidetracked; but I'll wait until tomorrow and see what happens. All that I read says that gasoline prices are about to go through the roof. Analysts are saying that AAPL will be at 200 by end of summer. AMD, I'm not sure about and no one else has any idea, and I've got a limit sell order for 100 that I may revise back to 99 tonight.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
User avatar
Del
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2725
Joined: 11 Apr 2022, 22:08
Location: Madison, WI
Has thanked: 233 times
Been thanked: 372 times

Stock Trading

Post by Del »

XLE is behaving rather ideally today. XLE gapped over the weekend (from 82.8 to 86.3) over the weekend due to OPEC announcement of cutting production.

After a large gap up during an upward trend, we anticipate that the stock will drop briefly toward closing the gap -- then continue its upward trend. XLE's behavior is almost textbook today.

WTI is trading steady above 80 since the announcement, so XLE is not tracking any changes in its fundamental source. This is strictly technical behavior.

I see resistance ahead at 87.5, 90.5, and 93.

I sold some calls at 93 (Apr 28) this morning when XLE was still high. These are not presently covered.
I have covered calls at 86.5 (Apr 14), which are rather likely to be called out due to the OPEC action. If so, I will have to buy back shares to cover the calls at 93, and I want to hold XLE in any case.

And just for fun, I sold a couple of puts at 83.5 (Apr 14) in case it dips down. Or not.
sweetandsour
Usher
Usher
Posts: 2243
Joined: 08 Apr 2022, 03:59
Has thanked: 236 times
Been thanked: 269 times

Stock Trading

Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 04 Apr 2023, 10:54 XLE is behaving rather ideally today. XLE gapped over the weekend (from 82.8 to 86.3) over the weekend due to OPEC announcement of cutting production.

After a large gap up during an upward trend, we anticipate that the stock will drop briefly toward closing the gap -- then continue its upward trend. XLE's behavior is almost textbook today.

WTI is trading steady above 80 since the announcement, so XLE is not tracking any changes in its fundamental source. This is strictly technical behavior.

I see resistance ahead at 87.5, 90.5, and 93.

I sold some calls at 93 (Apr 28) this morning when XLE was still high. These are not presently covered.
I have covered calls at 86.5 (Apr 14), which are rather likely to be called out due to the OPEC action. If so, I will have to buy back shares to cover the calls at 93, and I want to hold XLE in any case.

And just for fun, I sold a couple of puts at 83.5 (Apr 14) in case it dips down. Or not.
XLE hasn't seen 90 since January, although it has repeatedly tried. I finally sold mine at 86 while I could get out with at least a small profit along with the dividend from last month. The experts say that it won't see 90 or even near there unless something else happens in the world. I think it will gain 90 at some point but I don't want to wait it out with my small play account.
Meanwhile I missed my chance to sell AMD at 99, while holding out for 100, simply because I thought 100 was a nice number, and I really thought it would get there with the volume that was being listed. Anyway, now it sits at about what I paid for it, and I'll have to hold it over the long weekend, which I didn't want to do.
MY AAPL is up today, and I'm watching, tempted to sell and take a profit, but also tempted to hold and see if it goes to 200.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
Post Reply