sweetandsour wrote: ↑24 Aug 2023, 01:06
NVDA spiked up to 510 or thereabouts yesterday after their earnings release, after market closed. The PE is over 200 now. Too expensive, and crazy.
Meanwhile our FA still says recession or perhaps depression is coming, the feds won't stop until there is one. I told him to put our entire account into money market and CDs, and earn 5.5%.
I'm ever closer to selling covered calls. I need a good stock for that, with low enough price, and short term, like Piper does. If I could make 500 or more each month, that's all I need.
I put the financial doom-sayers in a similar category as climate change alarmists. They both make money and get their clicks by stirring up fear.
On the other hand, there are real risks associated with bad weather (both financial and environmental), and it's smart to make preparations suitable to your personal situation.
Our national economy (and the world economy) is a large, buffered system. Constantly assaulted by meddling forces, and constantly striving to correct itself.
I don't foresee an economic depression and it looks like we have avoided runaway inflation, but we could be looking at a long span of stagnation and slow economic growth.
I see three primary forces at work right now:
- Adjusting to the effects of bad covid policy, which injected 30% more freshly printed money into the M2 money supply -- with no corresponding increase in productivity to balance it. Caused inflation.
- A shortage of workers, as many people retired early or just dropped out. Like me.
- Debt, deficits, and the constant struggle to support a government that is too big and expensive for our economy.
We have the capacity to adjust. America is still the richest, most welcoming, least racist nation on earth. Everyone wants to come here.
- We could extend legal status to Biden's millions of unskilled immigrants, so they can work and legally participate in America.
- We could encourage skilled immigrants from Asia and Europe.
- We could down-size government and free up thousands to work at productive jobs.
- AI will soon replace many current jobs, freeing humans to do more human jobs.
I'm not saying that change will be painless. I'm just saying that we have the capacity to adapt.
And we'd better get started. There's not much we can do to prevent China from attacking Taiwan, or the collapse of China's fake real estate market, or the eruption of a volcano in Tonga that affects our weather and crops.
I know one thing: We can't sell covered calls on CD's.