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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 14 Nov 2022, 04:28ping
I am still accumulating XLE to hold. XLE opened this morning and dropped to 90 right away, a relative swing low. I could buy 100 shares, but I would have to borrow some cash on margin.

So I sold a put option.

I sold a Dec 16 put (one month) at strike $95. I received $600 premium.

My chart drawings predict that the closing price on Dec 16 will be between 90 and 105. My spidey sense thinks the upper part of 90 to 98.

So if it closes below 95, I will purchase 100 shares at a net price of 89 (95 - 6).
If it closes above 95, I get to keep the $600 (same as if I had bought at 90 today and sold at 96).

I'm a happy trader, either way.

XLE traded up during the day, closing at 91.63.
XLE got close to 95 earlier this week. Some good news could send it back up.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 18 Nov 2022, 19:16
sweetandsour wrote: 14 Nov 2022, 04:28ping
I am still accumulating XLE to hold. XLE opened this morning and dropped to 90 right away, a relative swing low. I could buy 100 shares, but I would have to borrow some cash on margin.

So I sold a put option.

I sold a Dec 16 put (one month) at strike $95. I received $600 premium.

My chart drawings predict that the closing price on Dec 16 will be between 90 and 105. My spidey sense thinks the upper part of 90 to 98.

So if it closes below 95, I will purchase 100 shares at a net price of 89 (95 - 6).
If it closes above 95, I get to keep the $600 (same as if I had bought at 90 today and sold at 96).

I'm a happy trader, either way.

XLE traded up during the day, closing at 91.63.
XLE got close to 95 earlier this week. Some good news could send it back up.
XLE is at 88 this morning. Following XOM, which is dropping as well.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 06:49
Del wrote: 18 Nov 2022, 19:16
sweetandsour wrote: 14 Nov 2022, 04:28ping
I am still accumulating XLE to hold. XLE opened this morning and dropped to 90 right away, a relative swing low. I could buy 100 shares, but I would have to borrow some cash on margin.

So I sold a put option.

I sold a Dec 16 put (one month) at strike $95. I received $600 premium.

My chart drawings predict that the closing price on Dec 16 will be between 90 and 105. My spidey sense thinks the upper part of 90 to 98.

So if it closes below 95, I will purchase 100 shares at a net price of 89 (95 - 6).
If it closes above 95, I get to keep the $600 (same as if I had bought at 90 today and sold at 96).

I'm a happy trader, either way.

XLE traded up during the day, closing at 91.63.
XLE got close to 95 earlier this week. Some good news could send it back up.
XLE is at 88 this morning. Following XOM, which is dropping as well.
I see it. Headline news claims that global crude oil prices will drop a bit ($100/barrel) due to Russia's stepping up production. Meanwhile, warnings of global recession spell a decrease in global demand.

So we are seeing a bit of a sell-off. XLE has retreated to support at 88.25. I've got enough exposure to XLE that it hurts a bit to look at, but I don't expect this to persist. Winter has come to the Northern Hemisphere.
=========================================

We have a short trading week. Thursday off, early close Friday. Next Monday will be interesting, as retailers report what they experienced over the Black Friday weekend.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 07:17
sweetandsour wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 06:49
Del wrote: 18 Nov 2022, 19:16

I am still accumulating XLE to hold. XLE opened this morning and dropped to 90 right away, a relative swing low. I could buy 100 shares, but I would have to borrow some cash on margin.

So I sold a put option.

I sold a Dec 16 put (one month) at strike $95. I received $600 premium.

My chart drawings predict that the closing price on Dec 16 will be between 90 and 105. My spidey sense thinks the upper part of 90 to 98.

So if it closes below 95, I will purchase 100 shares at a net price of 89 (95 - 6).
If it closes above 95, I get to keep the $600 (same as if I had bought at 90 today and sold at 96).

I'm a happy trader, either way.

XLE traded up during the day, closing at 91.63.
XLE got close to 95 earlier this week. Some good news could send it back up.
XLE is at 88 this morning. Following XOM, which is dropping as well.
I see it. Headline news claims that global crude oil prices will drop a bit ($100/barrel) due to Russia's stepping up production. Meanwhile, warnings of global recession spell a decrease in global demand.

So we are seeing a bit of a sell-off. XLE has retreated to support at 88.25. I've got enough exposure to XLE that it hurts a bit to look at, but I don't expect this to persist. Winter has come to the Northern Hemisphere.
=========================================

We have a short trading week. Thursday off, early close Friday. Next Monday will be interesting, as retailers report what they experienced over the Black Friday weekend.
WTI oil futures are at ~$75 now. SPY support is headed back to 390. I'm still keeping my powder dry.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 08:00
Del wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 07:17
sweetandsour wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 06:49

XLE is at 88 this morning. Following XOM, which is dropping as well.
I see it. Headline news claims that global crude oil prices will drop a bit ($100/barrel) due to Russia's stepping up production. Meanwhile, warnings of global recession spell a decrease in global demand.

So we are seeing a bit of a sell-off. XLE has retreated to support at 88.25. I've got enough exposure to XLE that it hurts a bit to look at, but I don't expect this to persist. Winter has come to the Northern Hemisphere.
=========================================

We have a short trading week. Thursday off, early close Friday. Next Monday will be interesting, as retailers report what they experienced over the Black Friday weekend.
WTI oil futures are at ~$75 now. SPY support is headed back to 390. I'm still keeping my powder dry.
I'm not fretting. I'm accumulating XLE to hold for a while. Five trading days ago, XLE set a new 6-year high.

I've had a busy morning. I sold some covered calls on XLE, based on lower short-term expectations.
I adjusted my condors on RUT, picking up $400 to expire this Wednesday.
I decided to use some of my gains to sell a condor on SPX. This is a longer-term deal, expiring on Dec. 16. A four-week condor has VERY WIDE goalposts, and I'm not messing with it. I put $4000 at risk, and received $800 premium.

My SPX expires Dec. 16. High mark is 4250. Low mark is 3700.
========
HEY, LOOK! At 11:00, XLE is staging a mighty recovery.

With the sale of so much premium and XLE's current price surging, my account balance is at a new record high. Let's see if the moment lasts.
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Post by sweetandsour »

I avoid getting classified as a day trader, but if I was a day trader I would just stay on NVDA all day today. Buy at 9:30 am (EST), sell at 10:00, buy it back at 10:30, sell at ~11:00, buy it back at ~11:30, sell it again at noon. After lunch, buy at 1pm, sell at 1:30pm. Each buy/sell trade is ~$3/share +/-, times 4.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 10:43 I avoid getting classified as a day trader, but if I was a day trader I would just stay on NVDA all day today. Buy at 9:30 am (EST), sell at 10:00, buy it back at 10:30, sell at ~11:00, buy it back at ~11:30, sell it again at noon. After lunch, buy at 1pm, sell at 1:30pm. Each buy/sell trade is ~$3/share +/-, times 4.
I lost a LOT of money before I convinced myself that I suck badly at catching the bottoms and the tops. I do not attempt to do that anymore.

Yesterday, I sold covered calls on XLE at the bottom of the trading swing. Today, I closed the call options, as it is much too likely that I will get called out in a bad situation. Easier to take the $115 loss and remember that I tend to sell at the bottom of a swing.... too easily do I convince myself that it's going to keep going lower.

Maybe I just bought (to close) the calls at the top of a new swing. That would be my bad luck. But I am long-term bullish on XLE, so I should be cautiously bullish on my short-term trades as well. It doesn't pay to bet aggressively against myself.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 22 Nov 2022, 08:19
sweetandsour wrote: 21 Nov 2022, 10:43 I avoid getting classified as a day trader, but if I was a day trader I would just stay on NVDA all day today. Buy at 9:30 am (EST), sell at 10:00, buy it back at 10:30, sell at ~11:00, buy it back at ~11:30, sell it again at noon. After lunch, buy at 1pm, sell at 1:30pm. Each buy/sell trade is ~$3/share +/-, times 4.
I lost a LOT of money before I convinced myself that I suck badly at catching the bottoms and the tops. I do not attempt to do that anymore.

Yesterday, I sold covered calls on XLE at the bottom of the trading swing. Today, I closed the call options, as it is much too likely that I will get called out in a bad situation. Easier to take the $115 loss and remember that I tend to sell at the bottom of a swing.... too easily do I convince myself that it's going to keep going lower.

Maybe I just bought (to close) the calls at the top of a new swing. That would be my bad luck. But I am long-term bullish on XLE, so I should be cautiously bullish on my short-term trades as well. It doesn't pay to bet aggressively against myself.
I almost bought XLE when it hit 88 yesterday, but got distracted. I expected it to be back at 93-94 today, which it is. My powder is still dry. I still think SPX will drop some more. Seriously also looking at XOM, just for the 12/8 dividend payment, and also it's expected to be at $125 by the end of the year. It's at 112-113 today so far. I may put in a limit order at 111, that's a reasonable number.
Edit: Apparently I missed the record date for XOM, so no dividend on 12/8.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 22 Nov 2022, 09:05 I almost bought XLE when it hit 88 yesterday, but got distracted. I expected it to be back at 93-94 today, which it is. My powder is still dry. I still think SPX will drop some more. Seriously also looking at XOM, just for the 12/8 dividend payment, and also it's expected to be at $125 by the end of the year. It's at 112-113 today so far. I may put in a limit order at 111, that's a reasonable number.
Edit: Apparently I missed the record date for XOM, so no dividend on 12/8.
XLE trades ex-div on Dec. 19.

XLE is trading above 93 already this morning. You are a lot better at predicting short swings than I am.

Just curious: Why do you think that SPX will drop? By how much? When do you expect this?

SPX climbed back onto the mattress at 3900 on 11/10, and showed respect for the support level by testing on 11/17. The trend since Oct 13 has been UP.

I am expecting SPX to be neutral for a while. I even set a condor around this, at 3975 +/- 275.
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 22 Nov 2022, 09:17
sweetandsour wrote: 22 Nov 2022, 09:05 I almost bought XLE when it hit 88 yesterday, but got distracted. I expected it to be back at 93-94 today, which it is. My powder is still dry. I still think SPX will drop some more. Seriously also looking at XOM, just for the 12/8 dividend payment, and also it's expected to be at $125 by the end of the year. It's at 112-113 today so far. I may put in a limit order at 111, that's a reasonable number.
Edit: Apparently I missed the record date for XOM, so no dividend on 12/8.
XLE trades ex-div on Dec. 19.

XLE is trading above 93 already this morning. You are a lot better at predicting short swings than I am.

Just curious: Why do you think that SPX will drop? By how much? When do you expect this?

SPX climbed back onto the mattress at 3900 on 11/10, and showed respect for the support level by testing on 11/17. The trend since Oct 13 has been UP.

I am expecting SPX to be neutral for a while. I even set a condor around this, at 3975 +/- 275.
The Fidelity analysts, with their charts, say we are in for a very immediate move, either up or down. My FA says SPX will be back at 3700 by the first of the year when the interest rates really begin to take effect and we begin to experience the expected recession. I think most of the experts are bearish, still.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
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