Del wrote: ↑04 Apr 2023, 10:54
XLE is behaving rather ideally today. XLE gapped over the weekend (from 82.8 to 86.3) over the weekend due to OPEC announcement of cutting production.
After a large gap up during an upward trend, we anticipate that the stock will drop briefly toward closing the gap -- then continue its upward trend. XLE's behavior is almost textbook today.
WTI is trading steady above 80 since the announcement, so XLE is not tracking any changes in its fundamental source. This is strictly technical behavior.
I see resistance ahead at 87.5, 90.5, and 93.
I sold some calls at 93 (Apr 28) this morning when XLE was still high. These are not presently covered.
I have covered calls at 86.5 (Apr 14), which are rather likely to be called out due to the OPEC action. If so, I will have to buy back shares to cover the calls at 93, and I want to hold XLE in any case.
And just for fun, I sold a couple of puts at 83.5 (Apr 14) in case it dips down. Or not.
XLE hasn't seen 90 since January, although it has repeatedly tried. I finally sold mine at 86 while I could get out with at least a small profit along with the dividend from last month. The experts say that it won't see 90 or even near there unless something else happens in the world. I think it will gain 90 at some point but I don't want to wait it out with my small play account.
Meanwhile I missed my chance to sell AMD at 99, while holding out for 100, simply because I thought 100 was a nice number, and I really thought it would get there with the volume that was being listed. Anyway, now it sits at about what I paid for it, and I'll have to hold it over the long weekend, which I didn't want to do.
MY AAPL is up today, and I'm watching, tempted to sell and take a profit, but also tempted to hold and see if it goes to 200.
I bought some more XLE today at 85.20. Plenty of upward pressure now on world crude oil and XLE. Plus earnings season is coming soon, and bulls are looking hungry for any good news. I am more likely than not to get called out at 86.5 on April 14 (next Friday), so might as well start to accumulate now.
I see cup & handles forming on both SPX and XLE. I want to be holding some uncovered XLE if that breaks out.
This morning's headline news warns that premium Crude Oil could get back up to $100 after OPEC's production cuts. Brent and WTI have been holding high and steady all week. If I have to spend more at the pump, I want to make more in my trading account.
Del wrote: ↑04 Apr 2023, 10:54
XLE is behaving rather ideally today. XLE gapped over the weekend (from 82.8 to 86.3) over the weekend due to OPEC announcement of cutting production.
After a large gap up during an upward trend, we anticipate that the stock will drop briefly toward closing the gap -- then continue its upward trend. XLE's behavior is almost textbook today.
WTI is trading steady above 80 since the announcement, so XLE is not tracking any changes in its fundamental source. This is strictly technical behavior.
I see resistance ahead at 87.5, 90.5, and 93.
I sold some calls at 93 (Apr 28) this morning when XLE was still high. These are not presently covered.
I have covered calls at 86.5 (Apr 14), which are rather likely to be called out due to the OPEC action. If so, I will have to buy back shares to cover the calls at 93, and I want to hold XLE in any case.
And just for fun, I sold a couple of puts at 83.5 (Apr 14) in case it dips down. Or not.
XLE hasn't seen 90 since January, although it has repeatedly tried. I finally sold mine at 86 while I could get out with at least a small profit along with the dividend from last month. The experts say that it won't see 90 or even near there unless something else happens in the world. I think it will gain 90 at some point but I don't want to wait it out with my small play account.
Meanwhile I missed my chance to sell AMD at 99, while holding out for 100, simply because I thought 100 was a nice number, and I really thought it would get there with the volume that was being listed. Anyway, now it sits at about what I paid for it, and I'll have to hold it over the long weekend, which I didn't want to do.
MY AAPL is up today, and I'm watching, tempted to sell and take a profit, but also tempted to hold and see if it goes to 200.
I bought some more XLE today at 85.20. Plenty of upward pressure now on world crude oil and XLE. Plus earnings season is coming soon, and bulls are looking hungry for any good news. I am more likely than not to get called out at 86.5 on April 14 (next Friday), so might as well start to accumulate now.
I see cup & handles forming on both SPX and XLE. I want to be holding some uncovered XLE if that breaks out.
This morning's headline news warns that premium Crude Oil could get back up to $100 after OPEC's production cuts. Brent and WTI have been holding high and steady all week. If I have to spend more at the pump, I want to make more in my trading account.
Reports say that crude and gasoline inventories are down, but still higher than the 5 year average for this time of year. Per API:
"The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a 3.7-million-barrel fall in crude oil stockpiles, accompanied by a reduction in gasoline and distillate inventories of 4.1 and 3.6 million barrels, respectively. Despite the decline, crude inventories remain about 4% higher than the five-year average for this time of year."
But I think we can all count on paying more at the pump this summer, when inventories drop more, and the production cuts start being felt. I'll buy XLE back if the price drops low enough, like back to 82 at least.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
sweetandsour wrote: ↑06 Apr 2023, 18:35
Reports say that crude and gasoline inventories are down, but still higher than the 5 year average for this time of year. Per API:
"The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a 3.7-million-barrel fall in crude oil stockpiles, accompanied by a reduction in gasoline and distillate inventories of 4.1 and 3.6 million barrels, respectively. Despite the decline, crude inventories remain about 4% higher than the five-year average for this time of year."
But I think we can all count on paying more at the pump this summer, when inventories drop more, and the production cuts start being felt. I'll buy XLE back if the price drops low enough, like back to 82 at least.
As long as Biden has American production shut down, the Saudis and OPEC have a lot of leverage to control world supply and prices.
Don't forget the guys with their hands up Biden's puppet LIKE the high gas prices, as they believe this will push consumers into the arms of windmills, electric cars, and all the green stuff that makes them all the green stuff.
I don't expect an acute spike in pump prices due to an acute shortage of inventory. I expect a very painful and prolonged increase in pump prices. But this comes with an increase in oil sector profits, so I want to be sure to enjoy a piece of that.
Haven't looked at that one. But I've been keeping an eye on Marathon and Valero, as if I haven't had enough of oil company stocks.
AMD is still the little darling of the analysts, but apparently not of the big boys' computers. It and AAPL have been sideways, but I'm going to the beach today and won't be watching, so they'll probably both make a move today.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
Haven't looked at that one. But I've been keeping an eye on Marathon and Valero, as if I haven't had enough of oil company stocks.
AMD is still the little darling of the analysts, but apparently not of the big boys' computers. It and AAPL have been sideways, but I'm going to the beach today and won't be watching, so they'll probably both make a move today.
Inflation news was pretty good this morning.... CPI for March is just a teeny bit less than expected. So market is going to be exuberant this morning, as this kinda confirms the expectation that FED will not increase rates at their May 3 meeting.
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If you want to keep watch with me, I have some calls on XLE at 86.5 that expire on Friday. It's still a coin toss whether or not they will close in-the-money, so I'm not going to spend cash to make any adjustment. I don't care whether or not they get called out, as long as it's close to my strike. I can buy shares back.
Haven't looked at that one. But I've been keeping an eye on Marathon and Valero, as if I haven't had enough of oil company stocks.
AMD is still the little darling of the analysts, but apparently not of the big boys' computers. It and AAPL have been sideways, but I'm going to the beach today and won't be watching, so they'll probably both make a move today.
Inflation news was pretty good this morning.... CPI for March is just a teeny bit less than expected. So market is going to be exuberant this morning, as this kinda confirms the expectation that FED will not increase rates at their May 3 meeting.
=====================
If you want to keep watch with me, I have some calls on XLE at 86.5 that expire on Friday. It's still a coin toss whether or not they will close in-the-money, so I'm not going to spend cash to make any adjustment. I don't care whether or not they get called out, as long as it's close to my strike. I can buy shares back.
XLE is at 87 this morning already.
The Indians will not bother you now, on account of ... you are touched.
XLE closed at 86.5 today (Wednesday), just sitting on my strike price....
BUD lost big again today. Signing Dylan Mulvaney as their creepy spokes-thingy has lost their shareholders 5.4% this week. That's $7.25 billion in lost market already. (But it sure boosted their ESG score.)
XLE and SPX have both developed well-formed cup & handle formations. Looks like they are poised for breakouts.
Financial sector (XLF) also looks promising. On Friday, JP Morgan and Wells-Fargo both report earnings, which could be healthy due to higher interest rates. We are poised for some action next week.
I went ahead and bought some more XLE on margin to cover my calls that expire tomorrow. I should be fine if market surges a little or a lot next week. I'm betting that downside risk is low in the short-term.
Market is still poised for a break-out to the upside.... just waiting for some good news (that might not come). Earnings season has been calm so far.
VIX is low, indicating that market is pretty comfortable with the current situation. But this can also be a contrarian indicator, suggesting that the market will get spooked easily by a bit of bad news.
Exxon and Chevron (XOM, CVX) are both reporting earnings next Friday, Apr 28, before market opens. Together, they make up 43% of XLE. Could be interesting.
