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Post by Del »

Big congrats on calling NVDA at 191. That was a good trade.
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Post by Jocose »

My 401k is down
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Jocose wrote: 23 Aug 2022, 00:10My 401k is down
It only looks like it's down. It's down from Jan 1, 2022.

There was a tremendous bubble based on the influx of printed money due to covid (Trump started this, but then Biden double-doubled down). Anyhow, the stock market has returned to normal.... but it still feels like we "lost" the fake growth.

Today, S&P500 index is up 91% since Trump was elected and the economy got back on track. That's nearly double in six years!.... very normal performance. Really. Not bad.

I expect the economy will zoom after Biden's energy policies are reversed. Six years from now, your 401k will be doubled again.

Just keep buying now, while Biden has sanctions against our own economy.
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Post by gaining_age »

Del wrote: 23 Aug 2022, 11:36
Jocose wrote: 23 Aug 2022, 00:10My 401k is down
It only looks like it's down. It's down from Jan 1, 2022.

There was a tremendous bubble based on the influx of printed money due to covid (Trump started this, but then Biden double-doubled down). Anyhow, the stock market has returned to normal.... but it still feels like we "lost" the fake growth.

Today, S&P500 index is up 91% since Trump was elected and the economy got back on track. That's nearly double in six years!.... very normal performance. Really. Not bad.

I expect the economy will zoom after Biden's energy policies are reversed. Six years from now, your 401k will be doubled again.

Just keep buying now, while Biden has sanctions against our own economy.
You're expecting some Administrative reversals.......... but the current situations is wacko with 300b in "student loans" coming from taxpayers.... this is not going to be pretty for a while.
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Post by Del »

gaining_age wrote: 23 Aug 2022, 19:51
Del wrote: 23 Aug 2022, 11:36
Jocose wrote: 23 Aug 2022, 00:10My 401k is down
It only looks like it's down. It's down from Jan 1, 2022.

There was a tremendous bubble based on the influx of printed money due to covid (Trump started this, but then Biden double-doubled down). Anyhow, the stock market has returned to normal.... but it still feels like we "lost" the fake growth.

Today, S&P500 index is up 91% since Trump was elected and the economy got back on track. That's nearly double in six years!.... very normal performance. Really. Not bad.

I expect the economy will zoom after Biden's energy policies are reversed. Six years from now, your 401k will be doubled again.

Just keep buying now, while Biden has sanctions against our own economy.
You're expecting some Administrative reversals.......... but the current situations is wacko with 300b in "student loans" coming from taxpayers.... this is not going to be pretty for a while.
Biden's spending isn't falling on "taxpayers." It's coming at all of us as inflation, which acts just like a very regressive tax. It falls heavily on the poor and doesn't affect the investor class so much.

Fed Chairman Powell is set to speak this Friday at the Jackson Hole (Wyoming) global economic conference. Wall Street cares more about his comments on inflation and rate increases than they do about Biden's babble over delaying student loan payments yet again and forgiveness of loans.

The stock market doesn't really care about politics and bad policy. Inflation doesn't hurt the market like it hurts people. Mr. Market has already priced in the next few rate increases, and then had four straight weeks of gains. Recession is a much bigger fear.

What spooked the market this week was news of a massive real estate collapse forming in China. It could make the 2008 Subprime Meltdown in America's market look like nothing. Most investors are still complacent, so this cautious pull-back (just 4.5% from recent high reached last week) is just a taste.

There could be global economic impact. (And China's leaders might even dare to invade Taiwan, just to distract their people from their economic misery.) I can see why no one wants to think about it.
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Post by sweetandsour »

I'm all in cash at the moment, and looking for trades, stocks or etf either one. Most have settled down, but I'm watching SPY now.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 24 Aug 2022, 07:12 I'm all in cash at the moment, and looking for trades, stocks or etf either one. Most have settled down, but I'm watching SPY now.
I just made a major adjustment to my retirement IRA portfolio. I took money out of the S&P 500 and put it into an Energy sector index ETF. I also bought a small position in my trading fund, just so I could keep an eye on it.

State Street has a SP.DR index ETF focused on energy stocks -- XLE. Compare XLE and SPY, and tell me what you think.
-----------------------------------

SPY hit max on Jan 4, 2022. SPY is down 13% YTD.
XLE continued to run up to max on June 8, 2022. XLE is up 49% YTD.

Not too shabby for a bunch of value oil-&-gas stocks. The major holdings (about 1/3 of the index) are Exxon and Chevron.

Not to mention.... XLE just broke out a cup-&-handle formation, and is moving up while the broader index is moving down. When the market recovers, this sector will be leading the way -- because sane energy policy will be the tailwind of any recovery.

There is a healthy options market on XLE for selling calls, if you wish.

Here's the case that persuaded me to move the big money around:
https://www.strivefunds.com/drll/investment-case

call or text or whatever....
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Post by sweetandsour »

Snowflake (SNOW) was the hot one this morning, really zooming up, and I got in at 186, and out at 192. I'm still learning the charts.
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Post by Del »

sweetandsour wrote: 25 Aug 2022, 08:10 Snowflake (SNOW) was the hot one this morning, really zooming up, and I got in at 186, and out at 192. I'm still learning the charts.
Hmmm... SNOW reported earnings yesterday, and beat market expectations. (Estimated to lose $0.51 per share, only lost $0.07 per share.) It gapped up significantly.

This is a one-day fluke, based on the release of new information. No amount of chart-reading skills could predict this.

So tell me, how did your trading day go?

186 was available around 8:50 am.

192 was available around 9:30 - 10 am, then it pulled back for a while. It tested 192 again around 11:30, breaking out just before noon. It topped out just shy of 197.
Did you sell at the 9:30 top? Or did you sell during the 11:30 window? Where you glued to the screen all morning? Or did you set an order and walk away?

It's fun to talk about winning trades, so let's dissect this and learn as much as we can from it. How did you discover that SNOW was moving fast, and what inspired you to jump on?
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Post by sweetandsour »

Del wrote: 26 Aug 2022, 06:31
sweetandsour wrote: 25 Aug 2022, 08:10 Snowflake (SNOW) was the hot one this morning, really zooming up, and I got in at 186, and out at 192. I'm still learning the charts.
Hmmm... SNOW reported earnings yesterday, and beat market expectations. (Estimated to lose $0.51 per share, only lost $0.07 per share.) It gapped up significantly.

This is a one-day fluke, based on the release of new information. No amount of chart-reading skills could predict this.

So tell me, how did your trading day go?

186 was available around 8:50 am.

192 was available around 9:30 - 10 am, then it pulled back for a while. It tested 192 again around 11:30, breaking out just before noon. It topped out just shy of 197.
Did you sell at the 9:30 top? Or did you sell during the 11:30 window? Where you glued to the screen all morning? Or did you set an order and walk away?

It's fun to talk about winning trades, so let's dissect this and learn as much as we can from it. How did you discover that SNOW was moving fast, and what inspired you to jump on?
I tuned in to Fidelity's pre-market discussion, that begins at 8:15 CDT, and typically runs just past market opening at 8:30. One of the analysts began talking about SNOW, and I quickly took a look. I wanted something to get in on in the morning and possibly close out by noon with a profit, because I had things to do all afternoon. SNOW was perfect for a quick buy and sell because I know nothing about it and I only had the morning to watch it. I sold mid-morning sometime, it was ~194, but of course by the time I pulled the trigger I got ~192 and some change. So much for the milliseconds that the big boys have. I see this morning that it's gotten up to 200 now, but I can't worry about that, I made ~3% in an hour +/-, which is really what I have to make to offset taxes I think. Re my charts comment, that was an aside. I still am learning about charts, and so far it almost seems like you can make them indicate whatever you want them to indicate. I know that's not the case, but still. Re Powell's remarks this morning, I can't tell exactly if Mr Market liked them or ignored them, SPX appears to be dropping.
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