Stock Trading

[sweetandsour]

If you're ever in need of a stock price to drop just let me know and I'll buy a share. It'll drop for sure. I'm debating whether to sell everything by the end of the year and harvest the loss(es) for taxes, then start over in January.

[Del]

If you're ever in need of a stock price to drop just let me know and I'll buy a share. It'll drop for sure. I'm debating whether to sell everything by the end of the year and harvest the loss(es) for taxes, then start over in January.

Thanks. That could be helpful.

I lost all of my work this year in the market surge of Nov 13. Inflation data came in lower than expected and.... BOOM! Busted all of my condors. And of course, my position size was way too large.

I'm hoping to finish the year with the same balance I started with.

Of course, I have been harvesting some cash each month -- to cover my margin loan and the gap in my budget due to Bidenflation. So I will have a taxable gain to deal with. But my year-ending balance will be at my year-starting balance. And that just doesn't feel like progress.

Remember SNOWFLAKE? They just reported earnings, a few minutes ago after market close. I've got a volatility crush deal going on them overnight. So far, so good.... not too much of a gap after earnings. We'll see what happens after the conference call.

And in the morning, we'll see how much the implied volatility has dropped now that the uncertainty of earnings has been released. Best scenario: Large drop in volatility with a small gap in trading price. I could make $500 or more on the deal.

[sweetandsour]

If you're ever in need of a stock price to drop just let me know and I'll buy a share. It'll drop for sure. I'm debating whether to sell everything by the end of the year and harvest the loss(es) for taxes, then start over in January.

Thanks. That could be helpful.

I lost all of my work this year in the market surge of Nov 13. Inflation data came in lower than expected and.... BOOM! Busted all of my condors. And of course, my position size was way too large.

I'm hoping to finish the year with the same balance I started with.

Of course, I have been harvesting some cash each month -- to cover my margin loan and the gap in my budget due to Bidenflation. So I will have a taxable gain to deal with. But my year-ending balance will be at my year-starting balance. And that just doesn't feel like progress.

Remember SNOWFLAKE? They just reported earnings, a few minutes ago after market close. I've got a volatility crush deal going on them overnight. So far, so good.... not too much of a gap after earnings. We'll see what happens after the conference call.

And in the morning, we'll see how much the implied volatility has dropped now that the uncertainty of earnings has been released. Best scenario: Large drop in volatility with a small gap in trading price. I could make $500 or more on the deal.

Ah, yes, Snowflake. I would ride that one up again if it wasn't happening during after hours. Good luck on your deal.

[Del]

Ah, yes, Snowflake. I would ride that one up again if it wasn't happening during after hours. Good luck on your deal.

I bailed out at break-even. I got a nice crush on volatility, but there was a big gap up on earnings. Cancelled out profit on my trade.

I could have made $250 if I had stuck with it for another 30 minutes. But there was too much risk of losing that much if it bounced back up. I'm happy with the draw.

Ulta Beauty (cosmetic retail stores, ULTA) reports earnings after market today. I'm considering whether to try a volatility crush trade on them.

[sweetandsour]

I ended 2023 by selling my shares of BP, BKR, and ARKK, (after I'd bought to close a call that I had for Jan 15(?) with the BKR). I kept the Fidelity SP500 fund that I have. And that's where I am now, still - roughly 60/40 cash and the SP500 fund. I need to raise a little more capital so that I can do calls and puts more better. I've been watching Apple, thinking it may come back, but I don't have enough in my account to buy 100 shares, much less be diversified. Also looking a Nike. But both are just a little out of my price range for options use.

Good luck to everyone doing any trading in 2024.

[Del]

2023 was not a winning year for me. I made $30,000, and then I lost $30,000. I made a bit of profit over the year, but I underperformed the S&P.... so doing nothing would have been better than the hundreds of hours I spent looking at screens.

And since I am drawing cash from my account to supplement the family budget due to Bidenflation, my balance is down $10,000 from the start of the year. Began with $55,000; ended under $45,000.

My main problem was too many expensive adjustments to fix my condors.

This year, I am committed to being less aggressive. I was trying to make over $1000 per week, and got nowhere. This year, I am looking to trade for $750 a week. Basically, I'm slowing down so as to finish faster.

And every week, I'm going to ask myself the tough question as to whether it might be better to just not trade that week. This will be difficult, but I need to apply this discipline. $0 is a much better play than -$3000. I have to remember this. Volatility around FED rate meetings killed me.
==========================

I am holding CAVA, ARKK etf, XLE, and JEPI. Working on building up my cash balance.

[sweetandsour]

2023 was not a winning year for me. I made $30,000, and then I lost $30,000. I made a bit of profit over the year, but I underperformed the S&P.... so doing nothing would have been better than the hundreds of hours I spent looking at screens.

And since I am drawing cash from my account to supplement the family budget due to Bidenflation, my balance is down $10,000 from the start of the year. Began with $55,000; ended under $45,000.

My main problem was too many expensive adjustments to fix my condors.

This year, I am committed to being less aggressive. I was trying to make over $1000 per week, and got nowhere. This year, I am looking to trade for $750 a week. Basically, I'm slowing down so as to finish faster.

And every week, I'm going to ask myself the tough question as to whether it might be better to just not trade that week. This will be difficult, but I need to apply this discipline. $0 is a much better play than -$3000. I have to remember this. Volatility around FED rate meetings killed me.
==========================

I am holding CAVA, ARKK etf, XLE, and JEPI. Working on building up my cash balance.

You still have CAVA? I see that its' price came back up into the 40s range after a 6-month hiatus. I've been emailing with my older sis, a retired accountant who also is an active investor. She says that CAVA is not a buy. But she was very keen to hear about JEPI. She has another JPM fund of some sort that doesn't do as well. She's also the one telling me about MCD and NKE, although I'm not keen on either one.

You also still have XLE? It could take off in 2024, who knows? Lots going on in the energy sector.

I'm looking at JEPI again myself if the price drops much further.

[Del]

I am holding CAVA, ARKK etf, XLE, and JEPI. Working on building up my cash balance.

You still have CAVA? I see that its' price came back up into the 40s range after a 6-month hiatus. I've been emailing with my older sis, a retired accountant who also is an active investor. She says that CAVA is not a buy. But she was very keen to hear about JEPI. She has another JPM fund of some sort that doesn't do as well. She's also the one telling me about MCD and NKE, although I'm not keen on either one.

You also still have XLE? It could take off in 2024, who knows? Lots going on in the energy sector.

I'm looking at JEPI again myself if the price drops much further.

I am a buy-&-hold kinda guy. It's really hard for me to sell anything. I don't have sell targets on any of my holdings.

This why I have JEPI. JEPI is basically a cash holding that I can sell in case of emergency. Meanwhile, I will forget about it and collect dividends.
JEPI tops the list for best dividend paying funds:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savinga ... r-AA1n0z2U

I like CAVA because it has an implied volatility of 0.59 (compared to SPY, at 0.14). I sell covered calls on my position and collect very decent premium every two weeks. I am not adding to my position, but I'm not selling either.

I'm holding on to XLE because I'm too dull to sell it. I expect energy might do well in 2025, if Biden loses his job. Any Republican will be looking to restock the SPR. I hope Congress put some legislation in place to make sure the next Democrat can't waste it all to buy a few mid-term seats.
But now that you have me thinking about it, I might sell my 100 shares of XLE and buy 50 shares of XLK. It looks like tech is going to be a hot sector again this year.

ARKK is an "innovation tech" fund. Invests in new tech companies -- several losers and some home run winners, so it can be very unpredictable. A few years ago, it was the top performing fund.
I expect it will take off again when AI tech investments explode. Meanwhile, it has an implied vol of 0.40. Another great candidate for covered calls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ark_Invest

Mostly, I am focused on cash flow investments from my condors. Still looking at $750/week in average cash income.

[sweetandsour]

I forgot about the wash rule and bought BP again when the price dropped to its' 52 week low, ~33.5, and have been selling weekly covered calls on it with a strike price of 36. I'll keep doing this until when/if it ever gets exercised.

I also bought 20 shares of CHK at ~77 when it merged with Southwestern Energy. So far the price has stayed at ~77, but the avg price target is 99.

Meanwhile I still have 50% of my account in the Fidelity Equity Index fund, which had a return of just over 26% last year and so far this year. I need to keep an eye on it and move it when/if the SPX craters, as some folks say it will. Who knows?

[Del]

I forgot about the wash rule and bought BP again when the price dropped to its' 52 week low, ~33.5, and have been selling weekly covered calls on it with a strike price of 36. I'll keep doing this until when/if it ever gets exercised.

I also bought 20 shares of CHK at ~77 when it merged with Southwestern Energy. So far the price has stayed at ~77, but the avg price target is 99.

Meanwhile I still have 50% of my account in the Fidelity Equity Index fund, which had a return of just over 26% last year and so far this year. I need to keep an eye on it and move it when/if the SPX craters, as some folks say it will. Who knows?

I'm kinda bullish on SPX during an election year, and with the FED poised to lower rates (eventually) rather than raise them. Not to mention that Trump looks rather more likely to win than to lose, and Mr. Market likes Mr. Trump.